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Interpreting the Investment Intentions Data

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

D. Savage
D. Savage*
Affiliation:
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
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Extract

The formidable problems of estimating stable econometric relationships explaining capital expenditure which are usable for forecasting purposes are well known. These are attested by the fact that despite the very large number of regression studies in the field no clear consensus has yet emerged among economists as to the determinants of investment behaviour. Given the difficulties of econometric model-building it is hardly surprising that in practice considerable reliance should be placed on the concrete evidence about future investment plans afforded by business surveys when making short-term forecasts of investment.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 73 , August 1975 , pp. 41 - 46
Copyright
Copyright © 1975 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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Footnotes

The author would like to acknowledge the helpful comments made by Bernard Connolly of the Confederation of British Industry and Christopher Melliss and others of the Department of Industry on an earlier draft of this article. Any remaining errors of fact or interpretation are the sole responsibility of the author.

References

(1)Agarwala, R., Burns, T. and Duffy, M., ‘Forcasting gross private fixed investment using intentions survey data’, Manchester School, December 1969.Google Scholar
(2)Ball, R.J. and Drake, Pamela S., ‘Investment intentions and the prediction of private gross capital formation’, Economica, August 1964.10.2307/2550619CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(3)Hart, R.N. and Howe, C.B., ‘The FBI Industrial Trends Survey, a preliminary analysis’, CIRET Conference, 1963.Google Scholar
(4)Glynn, D.R., ‘The CBI Industrial Trends Survey’, Applied Economics, 1, 1969.10.1080/00036846900000003CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(5)Lund, P.J. and Neifield, M., ‘The price basis of the UK Department of Industry's investment intentions inquiries’, CIRET Conference, 1975.Google Scholar
(6)Shepherd, J.R., ‘The FBI Industrial Trends Enquiry’, National Institute Economic Review, November 1963.Google Scholar