Hostname: page-component-7479d7b7d-68ccn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-11T06:32:31.596Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Formal and Empirical Research on Cascaded Inference in Jurisprudence

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 July 2024

David A. Schum  and
Anne W. Martin
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This paper reports observations from a series of formal and empirical studies of the process of assessing the probative value of evidence in the cascaded or hierarchical inference tasks commonly performed by fact finders in court trials. The formal research develops expressions that prescribe how the ingredients of various forms of evidence can be coherently combined in assessing the probative value of evidence. These expressions allow identification and systematic analysis of a wide assortment of subtle properties of evidence, many of which are commonly recognized in evidence law. The reported empirical research was designed to evaluate the consistency with which persons actually assess the probative value of evidence when they are asked to make these evaluations in several equivalent ways. Results show that persons, when required to mentally combine a large amount of probabilistic evidence, exhibit certain inconsistencies such as treating contradictory testimony as corroborative testimony and double-counting or overvaluing redundant testimony. However, when people are asked to make assessments about the fine-grained logical details of the same evidence, these inconsistencies do not occur.

Type
Research Article
Information
Law & Society Review , Volume 17 , Issue 1: Special Issue: Psychology and Law , 1982 , pp. 105 - 151
Copyright
Copyright © 1982 The Law and Society Association.

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

The research reported in this paper was supported by The National Science Foundation under Grants SOC 77-28471 and SES 80-24203 to Rice University. The authors gratefully acknowledge the advice and assistance during the planning of our research of Professor Richard Lempert, University of Michigan School of Law, and Professor L. Jonathan Cohen, The Queen's College, Oxford University. The authors also wish to thank Dr. Felice Levine, National Science Foundation, for her encouragement and support.

References

CLEARY, Edward (1972) McCormick on Evidence. St Paul.: West.Google Scholar
COHEN, L. Jonathan (1977) The Probable and the Provable. Oxford: Clarendon.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
COHEN, L. Jonathan (1981) “Subjective Probability and the Paradox of the Gatecrasher,” 1981 Arizona State Law Journal 627.Google Scholar
DUCHARME, Wesley M. (1970) “A Response Bias Explanation of Conservative Inference,” 85 Journal of Experimental Psychology 66.Google Scholar
EDWARDS, Ward D. (1962) “Dynamic Decision Theory and Probabilistic Information Processing,” 4(2) Human Factors 59.Google Scholar
EDWARDS, Ward D., William L., HAYS, and Barabara C., GOODMAN (1968) “Probabilistic Information Processing Systems: pesign and Evaluation,” 4 IEEE Transactions on Systems Science and Cybernetics 248.Google Scholar
EGAN, James P. (1975) Signal Detection Theory and ROC Analysis. N.Y.: Academic Press.Google Scholar
EGGLESTON, Richard (1978) Evidence, Proof and Probability. London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson.Google Scholar
EILS, I., David, SEAVER, and Ward, EDWARDS (1977) Developing a Technology of Probabilistic Inference: Aggregating by Averaging Reduces Conservation. 77 Social Science Research Institute, University of Southern California, Los Angeles.Google Scholar
FINKELSTEIN, Michael O. and William B., FAIRLEY (1970) “A Bayesian Approach to Identification Evidence,” 83 Harvard Law Review 489.Google Scholar
HALE, Sir Matthew (1739) The History of the Common Law of England. Chicago: University of Chicago Press (1971 reprint).Google Scholar
HUME, David (1888) Treatise of Human Nature, Book 1, Part 3, Section 8. Oxford: Clarendon Press.Google Scholar
KAYE, David (1979) “The Paradox of the Gatecrasher and Other Stories,” 1979 Arizona State Law Journal 101.Google Scholar
KAYE, David (1981) “Paradoxes, Gedanken Experiments and the Burden of Proof: A Response to Dr. Cohen's Reply,” 1981 Arizona State Law Journal 635.Google Scholar
KEYSER, Cassius J. (1929) “On the Study of Legal Science,” 1929 Yale Law Journal 38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
LEMPERT, Richard O. (1977) “Modeling Revelance,” 75 Michigan Law Review 1021.Google Scholar
LEMPERT, Richard O. and Stephen A., SALTZBURG (1977) A Modern Approach to Evidence. St. Paul: West.Google Scholar
MAGUIRE, John M., J., WEINSTEIN, J., CHADBOURN, and J., MANSFIELD (1973) Evidence: Cases and Materials on Evidence. Mineola, N.Y.: Foundation Press.Google Scholar
MARTIN, Anne W. (1979) Cascaded Inference and Hearsay. Rice University Department of Psychology Research Report 79-03. Houston Texas.Google Scholar
MARTIN, Anne W. (1980) A General Algorithm for Determining Likelihood Ratios in Cascaded Inference. Rice University Department of Psychology Research Report 80-03, Houston Texas.Google Scholar
PETERSON, Cameron R. and Wesley M., DUCHARME (1967) “A Primacy Effect in Subjective Probability Revision,” 73 Journal of Experimental Psychology 61.Google Scholar
PITZ, Gordon F. (1969) “An Inertia Effect (Resistance to Change) in the Revision of Opinion,” 23 Canadian Journal of Psychology 24.Google Scholar
RAPOPORT, Ammon and Thomas, WALLSTEIN (1972) “Individual Decision Behavior,” 23 Annual Review of Psychology, 131.Google Scholar
SAKS, Michael J., and Robert F., KIDD (1981) “Human Information Processing and Adjudication: Trial by Heuristics,” 15 Law & Society Review 123.Google Scholar
SCHAFER, G. (1976) A Mathematical Theory of Evidence. Princeton N.J.: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
SCHUM, David A. (1977a) “The Behavioral Richness of Cascaded Inference Models: Examples in Jurisprudence,” in Castellan, Pisoni, and Potts, (eds.), Cognitive Theory (Vol. II). Hillsdale, N.J.: L. Erlbaum Press.Google Scholar
SCHUM, David A. (1977b) “Contrast Effects in Inference: On the Conditioning of Current Evidence by Prior Evidence,” 18 Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 217.Google Scholar
SCHUM, David A. (1979a) “A Review of a Case Against Blaise Pascal and his Heirs,” 77 University of Michigan Law Review 446.Google Scholar
SCHUM, David A. (1979b) On Factors Which Influence the Redundancy of Cumulative and Corroborative Testimonial Evidence. Rice University Psychology Dept. Research Report 79-02, Houston, Texas.Google Scholar
SCHUM, David A. (1979c) A Bayesian Account of Transitivity and Other Order - Related Effects In Chains of Inferential Reasoning. Rice University Psychology Department Research Report 79-04, Houston, Texas.Google Scholar
SCHUM, David A. (1980) “Current Developments in Research on Cascaded Inference,” in Wallstein, Thomas S. (ed.), Cognitive Processes in Decision and Choice Behavior. Hillsdale, N.J.: L. Erlbaum Press.Google Scholar
SCHUM, David A. (1981a) “Sorting out the Effects of Witness Sensitivity and Response Criterion Placement Upon the Inferential Value of Testimonial Evidence,” 27 Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 153.Google Scholar
SCHUM, David A. (1981b) Assessing the Probative Value of Equivocal Testimony Or No Testimony on a Relevant Issue at Trial. Rice University Department of Psychology Research Report #81-04, Houston, Texas.Google Scholar
SCHUM, David A. (1981c) Formalizing the Process of Assessing the Probative Value of Alibi Testimony. Rice University Psychology Dept. Research Report 81-05, Houston, Texas.Google Scholar
SCHUM, David A. and Wesley M., DUCHARME (1971) “Comments on the Relationship between the Impact and the Reliability of Evidence,” 6 Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 111.Google Scholar
SCHUM, David A. and Clinton, , W., KELLEY (1973) “A Problem in Cascaded Inference: Determining the Inferential Impact of Confirming and Conflicting Reports from Several Unreliable Sources,” 10 Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 404.Google Scholar
SCHUM, David A. and Anne W., MARTIN (1980a) Empirical Studies of Cascaded Inference in Jurisprudence: Methodological Considerations. Rice University Department of Psychology Research Report 80-01, Houston, Texas.Google Scholar
SCHUM, David A. (1980b) Probabilistic Opinion Revision on the Basis of Evidence at Trial: A Baconian or a Pascalian Process? Rice University Department of Psychology Research Report 80-02, Houston, Texas.Google Scholar
SCHUM, David A. (1980c) On the Internal Consistency of Assessments of the Probative Value of Evidence. Rice University Dept. of Psychology Research Report 80-04, Houston, Texas.Google Scholar
SCHUM, David A. (1981) Assessing the Probative Value of Evidence in Various Inference Structures. Rice University Dept. of Psychology Research Report 81-02, Houston, Texas.Google Scholar
SLOVIC, Paul and Sarah, LICHTENSTEIN (1971) “Comparison of Bayesian and Regression Approaches to the Study of Information Processing in Judgment,” 6 Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 649.Google Scholar
STANILAND, Alan C. (1966) Patterns of Redundancy. Cambridge: The University Press.Google Scholar
STEVENS, Stanley S. (1975) Psychophysics: Introduction to Its Perceptual, Neural, and Social Prospects. N.Y.: Wiley and Sons.Google Scholar
SWETS, John A. (1964) Signal Detection and Recognition by Human Observers: Contemporary Readings. N.Y.: Wiley and Sons.Google Scholar
TRIBE, Laurence (1971) “Precision and Ritual in the Legal Process,” 84 Harvard Law Review 1810.Google Scholar
TRIBE, Laurence (1974) “Triangulating Hearsay,” 87 Harvard Law Review 957.Google Scholar
WIGMORE, John H. (1937) The Science of Judicial Proof as Given by Logic, Psychology, and General Experience, and Illustrated in Judicial Trials (3rd ed.). Boston: Little, Brown.Google Scholar
WINKLER, Robert and Allen, MURPHY (1973) “Experiments in the Laboratory and the Real World,” 10 Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 252.Google Scholar
ZADEH, Lofti (1978) “Fuzzy Sets As a Basis For a Theory of Possibility,” 1 Fuzzy Sets And Systems.CrossRefGoogle Scholar