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Wine Cycles in South Africa

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 September 2018

Nick Vink ,
Willem H. Boshoff ,
Johan Fourie  and
Rossouw van Jaarsveld
Nick Vink
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural Economics, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag X1, Matieland; 7602, South Africa; e-mail: nv@sun.ac.za.
Willem H. Boshoff
Affiliation:
Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag X1, Matieland; 7602; South Africa; e-mail: wimpie2@sun.ac.za.
Johan Fourie
Affiliation:
Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag X1, Matieland; 7602; South Africa; e-mail: johanf@sun.ac.za.
Rossouw van Jaarsveld
Affiliation:
Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag X1, Matieland; 7602; South Africa; e-mail: 20565844@sun.ac.za.
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Abstract

In this article, medium-run cycles in wine production in South Africa are extracted and related to similar cycles in real GDP per capita during the same period. In addition to removing noise in the historical data, smoothing out short-run fluctuations also eliminates the short-run impact on agricultural production due to idiosyncratic shocks such as weather events, wars, and vine diseases. By isolating the medium-run cycles, it is possible to verify the timing and duration of each cycle, matching it with the historical narrative. In this regard, a 300-year annual data series of South African wine production explains the evolution not only of one of the largest agricultural sectors, but of the South African economy in general. (JEL Classifications: C10, N57, Q10).

Keywords

medium-run cyclesSouth Africawine production
Type
Articles
Information
Journal of Wine Economics , Volume 13 , Issue 2 , May 2018 , pp. 182 - 198
Copyright
Copyright © American Association of Wine Economists 2018 

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Footnotes

The authors would like to thank Kym Anderson for encouragement to submit this work and an anonymous reviewer for constructive comments.

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