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Strategy for Development of Systems Analytic Models – A Dairy Experience –

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 May 2017

M. C. Hallberg
Affiliation:
The Pennsylvania State University
A. C. Manchester
Affiliation:
Animal Products Branch, MED-ERS-USDA
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Extract

As economists our greatest contribution to policymakers is likely to stem from our ability to make conditional forecasts—conditional forecasts of the outcome of specific possible or actual courses of action on the part of (1) government policymakers, (2) participants in the economy of interest, or (3) participants in other economies. But these conditional forecasts are not easy to come by, given the present state of the arts in our profession. In the first place, we do not yet have models which include parameter estimates in which we can place a great deal of confidence. Secondly, we do not at present have models which adequately encompass the vast number of relationships and constraints characteristic of a given economic system.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association 

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References

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