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On the Calculation of Annuities, and on some Questions in the Theory of Chances

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 August 2016

Extract

1. The object of the following investigation is to show how the probabilities of an individual living any given number of years are to be deduced from any table of mortality. All writers (with the exception of Laplace) have considered the probability of an individual dying at any age to be the number of deaths at that age recorded in the table, divided by the sum of the deaths recorded at all ages. This would be the case if the observations on which the table is founded were infinite; but the supposition differs the more widely from the truth the less extended are the observations, and cannot, I think, be admitted where the recorded deaths do not altogether exceed a few thousand, as is the case in the tables used in England. The number of deaths on which the Northampton Tables are founded is 4,689 (Price, vol. i. p. 357). The tables of Halley are founded upon the deaths which took place at Breslau, in Silesia, during five years, and which amounted to 5,869.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Institute and Faculty of Actuaries 1855

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References

page 198 note * See page 207, and the note there.

page 201 note * Since writing the above, I find that Mr. Finlaison has given the values of annuities, distinguishing the sexes, in the Report of the Committee on Friendly Societies, 1825, p. 140.

page 205 note * This is a method of notation which obtains, but it is not meant to imply that S1 e1 S1 e2 =S1, e1 × S1, e2.