Hostname: page-component-77c89778f8-9q27g Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-22T03:57:04.891Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

ONE HUNDRED YEARS OF EXCHANGE RATE ECONOMICS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO: 1892–1992

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 April 2024

Sebastian Edwards*
Affiliation:
Sebastian Edwards: University of California, Los Angeles, and National Bureau of Economic Research.

Abstract

In this paper I analyze the work on exchange rates and external imbalances by University of Chicago faculty members during the university’s first 100 years, 1892 to 1992. Many people associate Chicago’s views with Milton Friedman’s advocacy for flexible exchange rates. But, of course, there was much more than that, including the work of J. Laurence Laughlin on bimetallism, Jacob Viner on the balance of payments, Lloyd Metzler on transfers, Harry Johnson on trade and currencies, Lloyd Mints on exchange rate regimes, Robert Mundell on optimal currency areas, and Arnold Harberger on shadow exchange rates, among others. The analysis shows that, although different scholars emphasized different issues, there was a common thread in this research, anchored on the role of relative prices’ changes during the adjustment process.

Type
Article
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2024. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of History of Economics Society

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

I thank Doug Irwin, Lars Jonung, Hugh Rockoff, David Laidler, and Al Harberger for comments. I am also grateful to one of the editors and an anonymous reviewer for helpful suggestions. I have benefitted from discussions with Ed Leamer. Luis Cabezas provided wonderful research assistance.

References

REFERENCES

Dimand, Robert W. 2020. “J. Laurence Laughlin versus Irving Fisher on the Quantity Theory of Money, 1894 to 1913.” Oxford Economic Papers 72 (4): 10321049.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dornbusch, Rüdiger. 1976a. “Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics.” Journal of Political Economy 84 (6): 11611176.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dornbusch, Rüdiger. [1976b] 1978. “The Theory of Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Policy.” In Frenkel, J. and Johnson, H. G., eds., The Economics of Exchange Rates. Boston: Addison Wesley, pp. 2646.Google Scholar
Dornbusch, Rüdiger. 1980. “Exchange Rate Economics. Where Do We Stand?Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1.Google Scholar
Dornbusch, Rüdiger. 2001. “Fewer Monies, Better Monies.” Papers and Proceedings of the Hundred Thirteenth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association. American Economic Review 91 (2): 238242.Google Scholar
Dornbusch, Rüdiger, and Helmers, F. Leslie, eds. 1988. The Open Economy: Tools for Policymakers in Developing Countries. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Douglas, Paul H., and Director, Aaron. 1931. The Problem of Unemployment. New York: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Edwards, Sebastian. 2018. American Default: The Untold Story of FDR, the Supreme Court, and the Battle over Gold. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Edwards, Sebastian. 2023a. The Chile Project: The Story of the Chicago Boys and the Downfall of Neoliberalism. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Edwards, Sebastian. 2023b. “Milton Friedman and Exchange Rates: History and Controversies.” History of Political Economy 55 (5): 831867.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Edwards, Sebastian, and Montes, Leonidas. 2020. “Milton Friedman in Chile: Shock Therapy, Economic Freedom, and Exchange Rates.” Journal of the History of Economic Thought 42 (1): 105132.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fiorito, Luca, and Nerozzi, Sebastiano. 2009. “Jacob Viner’s Reminiscences from the New Deal (February 11, 1953).” Research in the History of Economic Thought and Methodology, A Research Annual 27 (1): 75136.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fisher, Irving. 1912. “‘The Equation of Exchange’ for 1911 and Forecast.” American Economic Review 2 (2): 302319.Google Scholar
Fisher, Irving. 1913. “A Compensated Dollar.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 27 (2): 213235.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frenkel, Jacob A. 1978. “Purchasing Power Parity: Doctrinal Perspective and Evidence from the 1920s.” Journal of International Economics 8 (2): 169191.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frenkel, Jacob A., and Johnson, Harry, eds. 1978. The Economics of Exchange Rates. Boston: Addison Wesley.Google Scholar
Frenkel, Jacob A., and Razin, Assaf. 1987. “The Mundell–Fleming Model a Quarter Century Later: A Unified Exposition.” International Monetary Fund Staff Papers 34 (4): 567620.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Friedman, Milton. 1948. “A Monetary and Fiscal Framework for Economic Stability.” American Economic Review 38 (3): 245264.Google Scholar
Friedman, Milton. 1953. “The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates.” In Friedman, M., ed., Essays in Positive Economics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 157203.Google Scholar
Friedman, Milton. 1967. “The Monetary Theory and Policy of Henry Simons.” Journal of Law and Economics 10: 113.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Friedman, Milton. 1969. “The Case for Fixed Exchange Rates, 1969: Discussion.” In The International Adjustment Mechanism. Proceedings of a Conference Held at Melvin Village, New Hampshire, October 8–10, 1969. Boston: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pp. 109119.Google Scholar
Friedman, Milton. 1973a. Money and Economic Development: The Horowitz Lectures of 1972. New York: Praeger.Google Scholar
Friedman, Milton. 1973b. “Statement and Testimony.” Hearings before the Subcommittee on International Economics, How Well Are Fluctuating Exchange Rates Working?, 93rd Cong., 1st Sess., June 20–27, pp. 114120.Google Scholar
Friedman, Milton. 1987. “J. Laurence Laughlin.” In The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. Volume 3. London: Macmillan, pp. 139140.Google Scholar
Friedman, Milton. 1990. “Bimetallism Revisited.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 4 (4): 85104.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Friedman, Milton. 1994. Money Mischief: Episodes in Monetary History. New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich.Google Scholar
Friedman, Milton, and Friedman, Rose D.. 1998. Two Lucky People: Memoirs. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Friedman, Milton, and Mundell, Robert. 2001. “One World, One Money?Policy Options 22 (4): 1019.Google Scholar
Friedman, Milton, and Roosa, Robert V.. 1967. The Balance of Payments: Free versus Fixed Exchange Rates. Volume 4. Washington: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research.Google Scholar
Friedman, Milton, and Schwartz, Anna J.. 1963. A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Harberger, Arnold C. 1950. “Currency Depreciation, Income, and the Balance of Trade.” Journal of Political Economy 58 (1): 4760.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harberger, Arnold C.. 1986. “Economic Adjustment and the Real Exchange Rate.” In Edwards, Sebastian and Ahamed, Liaquat, eds., Economic Adjustment and Exchange Rates in Developing Countries. Cambridge, MA: NBER Chapters, pp. 369424.Google Scholar
Harberger, Arnold C., Jenkins, Glenn P., Kuo, Chun-Yan, and Mphahlele, M. Benjamin. 2003. “The Economic Cost of Foreign Exchange for South Africa.” South African Journal of Economics 71 (2): 155169.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Houston, David F., Kemmerer, Edwin W., Johnson, Joseph French, Wildman, Murray S., Carver, Thomas N., Taussig, Frank W., Laughlin, J. Laurence, and Fisher, Irving. 1911. “Money and Prices: Discussion.” American Economic Review 1 (2): 4670.Google Scholar
Itskhoki, Oleg. 2021. “The Story of the Real Exchange Rate.” Annual Review of Economics 13 (1): 423455.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnson, Harry G. 1956. “The Transfer Problem and Exchange Stability.” Journal of Political Economy 64 (3): 212225.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnson, Harry G.. 1976. “Destabilizing Speculation: A General Equilibrium Approach.” Journal of Political Economy 84 (1): 101108.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnson, Harry G.. 1977. “The monetary approach to the balance of payments: A nontechnical guide.” Journal of International Economics 7 (3): 251268.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keynes, John Maynard. 1924. A Tract on Monetary Reform. London: Macmillan and Co.Google Scholar
Keynes, John Maynard. 1929. “The Reparation Problem: A Discussion.” Economic Journal 39 (154): 172182.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laughlin, J. Laurence. 1896The History of Bimetallism in the United States. Boston: D. Appleton.Google Scholar
Laursen, Svend, and Metzler, Lloyd A.. 1950. “Flexible Exchange Rates and the Theory of Employment.” Review of Economics and Statistics 32: 281299.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maneschi, Andrea. 1992. “Ricardo’s International Trade Theory: Beyond the Comparative Cost Example.” Cambridge Journal of Economics 16 (4): 421437.Google Scholar
Metzler, Lloyd A. 1942. “The Transfer Problem Reconsidered.” Journal of Political Economy 50 (3): 397414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Metzler, Lloyd A.. 1947. “Exchange Rates and the International Monetary Fund.” In International Monetary Policies. PostWar Economic Studies No. 7. Washington, DC: Federal Reserve System. pp. 145.Google Scholar
Metzler, Lloyd A.. 1951. “A Multiple-Country Theory of Income Transfers.” Journal of Political Economy 59 (1): 1429.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mints, Lloyd W. 1945. “Review of International Currency Experience: Lessons of the Inter-War Period, by Ragnar Nurkse.” American Economic Review 35 (1): 192195.Google Scholar
Mints, Lloyd W.. 1950. Monetary Policy for a Competitive Society. New York: McGraw Hill.Google Scholar
Mundell, Robert A. 1968. International Economics. New York: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Mundell, Robert A.. 1971. Monetary Theory: Inflation, Interest, and Growth in the World Economy. Pacific Palisades, CA: Goodyear Publishing Co.Google Scholar
Mundell, Robert A.. 1983. “International Monetary Options.” Cato Journal 3 (1): 189210.Google Scholar
Mundell, Robert A.. 1995. “Stabilization and Liberalization Policies in Semi-Open Economies.” In Edwards, S., ed., Capital Controls, Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in the World Economy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 722.Google Scholar
Mundell, Robert A.. 1997. “Currency Areas, Common Currencies, and EMU.” Papers and Proceedings of the Hundred and Fourth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association. American Economic Review 87 (2): 214216.Google Scholar
Mundell, Robert A.. 2000. “Currency Areas, Exchange Rate Systems and International Monetary Reform.” Journal of Applied Economics 3 (2): 217256.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mussa, Michael. 1986. “Nominal Exchange Rate Regimes and the Behavior of Real Exchange Rates: Evidence and Implications.” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 25 (1): 117214.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mussa, Michael. 2002Argentina and the Fund: From Triumph to Tragedy. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute.Google Scholar
Myrdal, Gunnar. 1956. An International Economy: Problems and Prospects. New York: Harper.Google Scholar
Myrdal, Gunnar. 1968. Asian Drama: An Inquiry into the Poverty of Nations. Three volumes. New York: Pantheon.Google Scholar
Nef, John U. 1967. “James Laurence Laughlin (1850–1933).” Journal of Political Economy 75 (6): 779781.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nerozzi, Sebastiano. 2007. “Building Up a Multilateral Strategy for the United States: Alvin Hansen, Jacob Viner and the Council on Foreign Relations (1939–1945).” Working Papers 08, Universita’ degli Studi di Firenze.Google Scholar
Nerozzi, Sebastiano. 2011. “From the Great Depression to Bretton Woods: Jacob Viner and International Monetary Stabilization (1930–1945).” European Journal of the History of Economic Thought 18 (1): 5584.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nurkse, Ragnar. 1944. International Currency Experience: Lessons of the Inter-War Period. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Obstfeld, Maurice. 1982. “Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen–Metzler Effect?Quarterly Journal of Economics 97 (2): 251270.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ohlin, Bertil. 1929a. “The Reparation Problem: A Discussion.” Economic Journal 39 (154): 172182.Google Scholar
Ohlin, Bertil. 1929b. “Mr. Keynes’ Views on the Transfer Problem. II. A Rejoinder from Professor Ohlin.” Economic Journal 39 (155): 400404.Google Scholar
Patinkin, Don. 1963. Money, Interest, and Prices: An Integration of Monetary and Value Theory. Second edition. New York: Harper and Row.Google Scholar
Pigou, Arthur C. 1932. “The Effect of Reparations on the Ratio of International Interchange.” Economic Journal 42 (168): 532543.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rogoff, Kenneth. 1996. “The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle.” Journal of Economic Literature 34 (2): 647668.Google Scholar
Samuelson, Paul A. 1971. “Ohlin Was Right.” Swedish Journal of Economics 73 (4): 365384.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schenk, Catherine R. 1991. “British Management of the Sterling Area, 1950–1958.” PhD diss., London School of Economics.Google Scholar
Schumpeter, Joseph A. 1954. History of Economic Analysis. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Simons, Henry C. 1934. “Currency Systems and Commercial Policy.” In Report of the Commission of Inquiry into National Policy in International Economic Relations. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minesota, pp. 344349.Google Scholar
Simons, Henry C.. 1943. “Postwar Economic Policy: Some Traditional Liberal Proposals.” American Economic Review 33 (1): 431445.Google Scholar
Simons, Henry C.. [1936] 1948. “Rules versus Authorities in Monetary Policy.” In Simons, Henry C., Economic Policy for a Free Society. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Svensson, Lars E., and Razin, Assaf. 1983. “The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger–Laursen–Metzler Effect.” Journal of Political Economy 91(1): 97125.Google Scholar
Tavlas, George S. 2019. “The Intellectual Origins of the Monetarist Counter-Revolution Reconsidered: How Clark Warburton Influenced Milton Friedman’s Monetary Thinking.” Oxford Economic Papers 71 (3): 645665.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Viner, Jacob. 1932. “International Aspects of the Gold Standard.” In Wright, Quincy, ed., Gold and Monetary Stabilization. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 342.Google Scholar
Viner, Jacob. 1937. Studies in the Theories of International Trade. New York: Harper and Brothers.Google Scholar
Viner, Jacob. 1991. Essays on the Intellectual History of Economics . Edited by Irwin, Douglas A.. Princeton Legacy Library. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Walker, Francis A. 1896. International Bimetallism. London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Wilson, Roland. 1931. Capital Imports and the Terms of Trade: Examined in the Light of Sixty Years of Australian Borrowings. Melbourne: Melbourne University Press.Google Scholar
Wright, Quincy. 1932. Gold and Monetary Stabilization. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Yntema, Theodore O. 1932. Mathematical Reformulation of the General Theory of International Trade. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar