Hostname: page-component-77c89778f8-n9wrp Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-19T12:59:43.391Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The Schumpeterian Consensus: The New Logic of Global Social Policy to Face Digital Transformation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 December 2022

Vicente Silva*
Affiliation:
Department of Social Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Old Building, Houghton St, London WC2A 2AE, United Kingdom

Abstract

Digitalisation emerged as a central problem in global social governance in the past decade. ‘Digital transformation’ was expected to bring new social risks, requiring a redesign of the welfare state. This study examines the social policy responses of international actors on the digitalisation agenda in the 2010s and early 2020s. Inspired by sociological institutionalism, it shows different trajectories followed by UN agencies, the OECD and the World Bank in terms of addressing the social implications of this transformation. Despite these divergent organisational agendas, the article reveals the emergence of a new transnational policy paradigm, the ‘Schumpeterian consensus’, overcoming the antagonism between ‘economic’ and ‘social’ institutions from previous decades. In this paradigm, the ‘Schumpeterian investment state’ is seen as a mediator between the creative and destructive potential of technological change. Its social model encourages governments to invest in skills, universal social protection and flexicurity for the digital era.

Type
Article
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Aghion, P., Antonin, C. and Bunel, S. (2021), The Power of Creative Destruction: Economic Upheaval and the Wealth of Nations. Cambridge, MA: The Belknap Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alston, P. (2004), Core labour standards and the transformation of the international labour rights regime. European Journal of International Law 15(3): 457521.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anner, M., Pons-Vignon, N. and Rani, U. (2019), For a Future of Work with Dignity: A Critique of the World Bank Development Report ‘The Changing Nature of Work’. Global Labour Journal 10(1): 219.Google Scholar
Auer, P. (2010), What’s in a name? The rise (and fall?), of flexicurity. Journal of Industrial Relations 52(3): 371386.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Babb, S. (2013), The Washington Consensus as transnational policy paradigm: Its origins, trajectory and likely successor. Review of International Political Economy 20(2): 268297.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Babb, S. and Kentikelenis, A. (2021), Markets Everywhere: The Washington Consensus and the Sociology of Global Institutional Change. Annual Review of Sociology 47: 521541.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bernards, N. (2017), The global governance of informal economies: the International Labour Organization in East Africa. Third World Quarterly 38(8). Routledge: 18311846.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Busemeyer, M. R. and Sahm, A. H. J. (2021), Social Investment, Redistribution or Basic Income? Exploring the Association between Automation Risk and Welfare State Attitudes in Europe. Journal of Social Policy. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, J. L. (2004), Institutional Change and Globalization. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Considine, M., McGann, M., Ball, S., et al. (2022), Can Robots Understand Welfare? Exploring Machine Bureaucracies in Welfare-to-Work. Journal of Social Policy. Cambridge University Press. DOI: 10.1017/S0047279422000174.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Deacon, B. (2007), Global Social Policy and Governance. London: Sage.Google Scholar
Deacon, B. (2013), Global Social Policy in the Making: The Foundations of the Social Protection Floor. Bristol: Policy Press.Google Scholar
Deeming, C. and Smyth, P. (2018), Social investment, inclusive growth that is sustainable and the new global social policy. In: Deeming, C. and Smyth, P. (eds.), Reframing Global Social Policy: Social Investment for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth. Bristol: Policy Press, pp. 1144.Google Scholar
Dølvik, J. and Martin, A. (2014), Introduction. In: European Social Models from Crisis to Crisis. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 120.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eichhorst, W., Hemerijck, A. and Scalise, G. (2020), Welfare State, Labor Markets, Social Investment and the Digital Transformation. IZA Discussion Paper (13391).Google Scholar
Esping-Andersen, G. (2005), Putting the horse in front of the cart: towards a social model for mid-century europe. In: Sassen, S and Esping-Andersen, G (eds), Towards A New Welfare State. The Hague: Scientific Council For Government Policy, pp. 3170.Google Scholar
Fischer, A. M. (2020), The Dark Sides of Social Policy: From Neoliberalism to Resurgent Right-wing Populism. Development and Change 51(2): 371397.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frey, C. B. and Osborne, M. A. (2017), The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation? Technological Forecasting and Social Change (114): 254–280.Google Scholar
Gabor, D. (2021), The Wall Street Consensus. Development and Change 52(3). Blackwell Publishing Ltd: 429–459.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gentilini, U., Grosh, M., Rigolini, J., et al. (eds.) (2020), Exploring Universal Basic Income. A Guide to Navigating Concepts, Evidence, and Practices. Washington, DC: World Bank.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gilardi, F. (2013), Transnational diffusion: norms, ideas, and policies. In: Carlsnaes, W., Risse, T. and Simmons, B. A. (eds.), Handbook of International Relations. London: Sage, pp. 453477.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Greve, B. (2014), Welfare and the Welfare State. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
Grimshaw, D. (2020), International organisations and the future of work: How new technologies and inequality shaped the narratives in 2019. Journal of Industrial Relations 62(3): 477507.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gurria, A. (2017), Opening remarks by OECD Secretary-General. High-Level Policy Forum on the New OECD Jobs Strategy. Paris: OECD.Google Scholar
Güven, A. B. (2012), The IMF, the World Bank, and the Global Economic Crisis: Exploring Paradigm Continuity. Development and Change 43(4): 869898.Google Scholar
Haas, P. M. (2008), Epistemic Communities. In: Bodansky, D, Brunnée, J, and Hey, E (eds), The Oxford Handbook of International Environmental Law. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 116.Google Scholar
Hall, P. A. (1993), Policy paradigms, social learning and the state. Comparative Politics 25(3): 275296.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hanusch, H. and Pyka, A. (2007), Principles of Neo-Schumpeterian Economics. Cambridge Journal of Economics 31: 275289.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Healy, J, Nicholson, D, Pekarek, A, et al. (2017), Should we take the gig economy seriously? Labour & Industry: a journal of the social and economic relations of work 27(3). Routledge: 232248.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hemerijck, A. (2018), Social investment as a policy paradigm. Journal of European Public Policy 25(6). Taylor & Francis: 810827.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Henman, P. W. F. (2022), Digital Social Policy: Past, Present, Future. Journal of Social Policy 51(3). Cambridge University Press: 535550.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
ILO (2017), Synthesis report on the national dialogues on the future of work. Geneva: ILO.Google Scholar
ILO (2018), Managing transitions over the life cycle. Global Commission on the Future of Work – Issue Briefs 7. Geneva: ILO.Google Scholar
ILO (2019a), ILO Centenary Declaration for the Future of Work – Adopted by 108th session of the International Labour Conference. Geneva: ILO.Google Scholar
ILO (2019b), Work for a Brighter Future: Global Commission report’. Geneva: ILO.Google Scholar
ILO (2022), World Employment and Social Outlook. Trends 2022. Geneva: ILO.Google Scholar
ILO and OECD (2018), Building Trust in a Changing World of Work. The Global Deal for Decent Work and Inclusive Growth Flagship Report 2018. Geneva: ILO-OECD.Google Scholar
International Labour Office (2013), Towards the ILO centenary. Director-General report to the International Labour Conference 2013. Geneva: ILO.Google Scholar
Jenson, J. (2017), Developing and spreading a social investment perspective. In: Hemerijck, A. (ed.), The Uses of Social Investment. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Jessop, B. (2018), Neoliberalism and Workfare: Schumpeterian or Ricardian? In: Cahill, D. (ed.), The SAGE Handbook of Neoliberalism. London: Sage, pp. 347358.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jolly, R. (1991), Adjustment Record with a Human Face: A UNICEF and Perspective on the 1980s. World Development 19(12): 18071821.Google Scholar
Kaasch, A. and Martens, K. (2015), Actors and agency in global social governance. In: Kaasch, A. and Martens, K. (eds.), Actors and Agency in Global Social Governance. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 317.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
L20 (2019), L20 statement to the G20 Labour and Employment ministers’ meeting. Matsuyama: G20.Google Scholar
Mahon, R. (2011), The Jobs Strategy: From neo- to inclusive liberalism? Review of International Political Economy 18(5): 570591.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mahon, R. (2019), Broadening the social investment agenda: The OECD, the World Bank and inclusive growth. Global Social Policy 19(1–2): 121138.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mahrenbach, L. and Shaw, T. (2019), Continuities and change in IPE at the start of the twenty-first century. In: Shaw, T. (ed.), The Palgrave Handbook of Contemporary International Political Economy. Cham: Palgrave, pp. 123.Google Scholar
McBride, S., McNutt, K. and Williams, R. A. (2007), Tracking Neo-Liberalism. Labour market policies in the OECD Area. In: Neo-Liberalism, State Power and Global Governance. Cham: Springer, pp. 7993.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McBride, S. and Merolli, J. (2013), Alternatives to austerity? Post-crisis policy advice from global institutions. Global Social Policy 13(3): 299320.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McBride, S. and Watson, J. (2019), Reviewing the 2018 OECD Jobs Strategy – anything new under the sun? Transfer 25(2): 149163.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McKinsey Global Institute (2017), A Future That Works: Automation, Employment, and Productivity.Google Scholar
Mearsheimer, J. J. (2019), Bound to fail: The rise and fall of the liberal international order. International Security 43(4). MIT Press Journals: 750.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mehta, J. (2011), The varied roles of ideas in politics. From ‘whether’ to ‘how’. In: Belánd, D. and Cox, R. H. (eds.), Ideas and Politics in Social Science Research. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 2346.Google Scholar
Meyer, J. W. (2010), World Society, Institutional Theories, and the Actor. Annual Review of Sociology 36(1): 120.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morel, N., Palier, B. and Palme, J. (2011), Beyond the welfare state as we knew it? In: Morel, N., Palier, B., and Palme, J. (eds.), Towards a Social Investment Welfare State?: Ideas, Policies and Challenges. Bristol: Policy Press, pp. 132.Google Scholar
Nolan, B. (2013), What use is ‘social investment’? Journal of European Social Policy 23(5): 459468.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nübler, I. (2016), New technologies: a jobless future or golden age of job creation? ILO Research Department – Working Paper 13. Geneva: ILO.Google Scholar
O’Brien, R. (2014), Antagonism and accommodation: the Labor-IMF/World Bank relationship. In: Kaasch, A. and Stubbs, P. P (eds.), Transformations in Global and Regional Social Policies. Hampshire: Palgrave MacMillan, pp. 153174.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
OECD (2018a), Good Jobs for All in a Changing World of Work. The OECD Jobs Strategy. Paris: OECD.Google Scholar
OECD (2018b), Social Policy for Shared Prosperity: Embracing the Future. Statement of the 2018 OECD Ministerial Meeting on Social Policy. Paris: OECD.Google Scholar
OECD (2019a), Going Digital: Shaping Policies, Improving Lives. Paris: OECD.Google Scholar
OECD (2019b), OECD Employment Outlook 2019: The future of work. Paris: OECD.Google Scholar
OECD (2019c), OECD Skills Strategy 2019. Skills to shape a better future. Paris: OECD.Google Scholar
OECD (2019d), Recommendation of the Council on AI. Paris: OECD.Google Scholar
Ortiz, I., Behrendt, C., Acuña-Ulate, A., et al. (2018), Universal basic income proposals in light of ILO standards. Extension of Social Security – Working Paper. Geneva: ILO.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Packard, T., Gentilini, U., Grosh, M., et al. (2019), Protecting all: risk sharing for a diverse and diversifying world of work. Washington, DC: World Bank.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Penpraser, B. E. (2018), The fourth industrial revolution and higher education. In: Gleason, N. W. (ed.), Higher Education in the Era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Singapore: Palgrave MacMillan, pp. 207228.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peters, M. A., Jandrić, P. and Hayes, S. (2019), The curious promise of educationalising technological unemployment: what can places of learning really do about the future of work? Educational Philosophy and Theory 51(3). Routledge: 113.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schlogl, L., Weiss, E. and Prainsack, B. (2021), Constructing the ‘Future of Work’: An analysis of the policy discourse. New Technology, Work and Employment 36(3). John Wiley and Sons Inc: 307326.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schumpeter, J. A. (1994), Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
Schwab, K. (2016), The Fourth Industrial Revolution. Geneva: World Economic Forum.Google Scholar
Screpanti, E. and Zamagni, S. (2005), An Outline of the History of Economic Thougth. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Silva, V. (2021), The ILO and the future of work: The politics of global labour policy. Global Social Policy March: 1–18.Google Scholar
Stone, D. (2008), Global public policy, transnational policy communities, and their networks. Policy Studies Journal 36(1): 1938.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thomas, H. and Turnbull, P. (2020), From a ‘Moral Commentator’ to a ‘Determined Actor’? How the International Labour Organization (ILO) Orchestrates the Field of International Industrial Relations. British Journal of Industrial Relations 56(3): 125.Google Scholar
Torfing, J. (1999), Towards a Schumpeterian workfare postnational regime: Path-shaping and path-dependency in Danish welfare state reform. Economy and Society 28(3). Routledge Journals: 369402.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
UNESCO (2021), Draft Recommendation on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence. Paris: UNESCO.Google Scholar
van Doorn, L. and van Vliet, O. (2022), Wishing for More: Technological Change, the Rise of Involuntary Part-Time Employment and the Role of Active Labour Market Policies. Journal of Social Policy 121.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Williamson, J. (2008), A short history of the Washington consensus. In: Serra, N. and Stiglitz, J. E. (eds.), The Washington Consensus Reconsidered. Towards a New Global Governance. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 1430.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
World Bank (1995), World Development Report 1995. Workers in an integrating world. Washington, DC.Google Scholar
World Bank (2016), World development report 2016. Digital dividends. Washington, DC.Google Scholar
World Bank (2018a), The Future of Work: Race with – not against – the Machine. Malaysia: World Bank Group.Google Scholar
World Bank (2018b), The Human Capital Project. Washington, DC.Google Scholar
World Bank (2019), World Development Report 2019. The changing nature of work. Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
World Bank (2021), World Development Report 2021. Data for better lives. Washington DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
World Economic Forum (2018), Towards a Reskilling Revolution. Geneva: WEF.Google Scholar
Zelenev, S. (2015), Universal social protection: The World Bank Group and ILO join forces in launching the Universal Social Protection Initiative. International Social Work 58(6): 840843.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Silva supplementary material

Silva supplementary material

Download Silva supplementary material(File)
File 46.8 KB