Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-jbqgn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-06-27T05:18:13.888Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Can Castro Survive?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 January 2018

Donald E. Schulz
Donald E. Schulz*
Affiliation:
Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

There is a moment in “I, Claudius” where Claudius, the king, looks back at all that had happened during his lifetime and before and decides that it is all rotten and has to be destroyed. And he makes a statement. He says: “Let all the poisons that lurk in the mud hatch out.”

In a very real sense, Claudius’ curse sums up much of what has happened in Cuba during the last several years. All of the weaknesses and pathologies of the Castro regime, many of which had been hidden beneath its monolithic façade, have come to the surface. The revolution has soured. The situation has grown so bad that most political observers today assume that the regime is in its “final hour.” Cuba is “collapsing,” and the only real questions are when and how Fidel will go and what will replace him.

While Castro must leave sooner or later, reports of his impending demise have been much exaggerated. A golpe de estado is possible, but not probable.

Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs , Volume 35 , Issue 1 , Spring 1993 , pp. 89 - 118
Copyright
Copyright © University of Miami 1993

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Baloyra, E. (1992) “Where Does Cuba Stand?” Paper delivered at the Strategic Studies Institute Roundtable on “Cuba and the Future,” US Army War College, Carlisle (PA), 16 January.Google Scholar
Castro, F. (1992a) “Fidel Castro Speaks,” Havana Radio and Television Networks, 5 September; in Fbis-Lat-92–175, 9 September: 7.Google Scholar
Castro, F. (1992b) “Fidel Castro Interviewed by Uruguayan Daily,” Montevideo Brecha, 28 August; in Fbis-Lat-92–174, 8 September: 3.Google Scholar
Castro, F. (1991) “Castro Vows to Stay, Continue Revolution,” Paris Afp, 26 September; in Fbis-Lat-91-188, 27 September: 1.Google Scholar
Castro, R. (1989) “Raúl Castro Delivers Speech to Western Army,” Havana Domestic Radio and Television Services, 15 June; in Fbis-Lat-89-117, 20 June: 17.Google Scholar
Cienfuegos, O. (1992) “”Assembly President on Elections, Party Pluralism,: Hamburg Dpa, 31 August; in Fbis-Lat-92-170, 1 September: 4.Google Scholar
Dominguez, J. (1993) “Secrets of Castro's Staying Power.” Foreign Affairs 72,2 (Spring): 97–107.Google Scholar
Foreign Broadcast Information Service-Latin America (Fbis-Lat) (1992a) “Party Politburo Note on Replacement,” Havana Prensa Latina, 10 October; in FBIS-LAT-92-206-A, 23 October: 2.Google Scholar
Foreign Broadcast Information Service-Latin America (1992b) “Official on Trade with Russia, USRelations,”Hamburg Dpa, 28 August; in FBIS-LAT-92-169, 31 August: 4.Google Scholar
Foreign Broadcast Information Service-Latin America (1991) “Soviets to Honor Bilateral Treaty until 27 December,” Vienna Der Standard, 8 October; Fbis-Lat-91-195, 8 October: 1.Google Scholar
French, H. (1992) “Rural Cuba Speaks out for Castro.” New York Times (12 July).Google Scholar
Lage, C. (1992a) “Carlos Lage Comments on Economy,” Havana Tele Rebelde and Cuba Vision Networks, 7 November; in Fbis-Lat- 92-219, 12 November: 3-5 and 7–9.Google Scholar
Lage, C. (1992b) “Carlos Lage Gives Interview on Economy 11 November,” Havana Radio and Television Networks, 12 November; in Fbis-Lat-92-224, 19 November: 4–8, 13.Google Scholar
Leen, J., and Lyons, D. (1993) “Prosecutors Split on Merits of Case Against Raul Castro.” Miami Herald (10 April).Google Scholar
Montane, J. (1992) “Fidel Castro's Political Advisor Interviewed,” Rio de Janeiro O Globo, 5 January; in Fbis-Lat-92-006, 9 January: 5.Google Scholar
Herald, Miami (1993) “Another Blow for Cuba: Sugar Exports Delayed.” (5 June): A-l.Google Scholar
Oppenheimer, A. (1992) “Increasingly, Castro Loses Touch with Cuba.” Miami Herald (28 July):Google Scholar
Oppenheimer, A. (1992) Castro's Final Hour: The Secret Story behind the Coming Downfall of Communist Cuba. New York, NY: Simon and Schuster.Google Scholar
Planas, J. R. (1992) “Why Does Castro Survive?” Paper delivered at Strategic Studies Institute Roundtable on “Cuba and the Future,” Us Army War College, Carlisle (PA), 16 January.Google Scholar
Roca, S. (1992) Quoted in “Castro Steels A Suffering Nation for Confrontation” (by French, Howard W.). New York Times (12 October):Google Scholar
Rohter, L. (1992) “Leader of Exile Group Tells of Spying for Cuba.” New York Times (11 November).Google Scholar
United States Information Agency (USIA) (1991) Radio Martí Program: Cuba Annual Report 1987. New Brunswick, Nj: Transaction Publishers.Google Scholar
Wiarda, H. (1991) “Is Cuba next? Crisis of the Castro Regime.” Problems of Communism 40, 1–2 (January-April).Google Scholar
Zimbalist, A. (forthcoming) “Treading Water: Cuba's Economic and Political Crisis,” in Schulz, Donald E. (ed.) Cuba and the Future. Westport, CT: Greenwood Press.Google Scholar
Zimbalist, A. (1992) “Teetering on the Brink: Cuba's Post-Cmea Economic and Political Crisis.” Paper delivered at the Strategic Studies Institute Roundtable on “Cuba and the Future,” US Army War College, Carlisle (PA), 16 January.Google Scholar