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The United States and Cuba: From a Strategy of Conflict to Constructive Engagement

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 January 2018

Donald E. Schulz*
Affiliation:
Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College

Extract

There is a nagging sense that an important moment has come. Part of me thinks there is something we should be doing other than let it fall by its own weight. But I can't think what it is.

Susan Kaufman Purcell (quoted in Rosenthal, 1991)

In the last issue of the Journal, this writer published an article challenging the conventional wisdom concerning the future of the Castro regime. To the question “can Castro survive?,” I answered that yes, unfortunately, the prospects for his political demise in the near future were not all that good. A golpe de estado, while possible, was not probable. Nor was it likely that the Cuban masses would rise up and overthrow the dictatorship. And, while Fidel could become the victim of assassination, suicide, or natural death (or, for that matter, could even resign, as he has hinted on more than one occasion), these kinds of endings cannot be counted upon in the short run. For a variety of reasons, Castro's “final hour” seems likely to last for several years and, perhaps, much longer (see Schulz, 1993a).

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © University of Miami 1993

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References

Alfonso, P. (1993) “Paper: Politburo Official Called by Mas Canosa.” Miami Herald (11 June).Google Scholar
Gonzalez, E. and Ronfeldt, D. (1992) Cuba Adrift in a Postcommunist World. Santa Monica, CA: The RAND Corporation.Google Scholar
Gonzalez, E. (1986) Castro, Cuba and the World. Santa Monica, CA: The RAND Corporation.Google Scholar
Gunn, G. (1993) “In Search of a Modern Cuba Policy,” forthcoming in Schulz, Donald E. (ed.) Cuba and the Future. Westport, CT: Greenwood Press.Google Scholar
Gunn, G. (1990) “Will Castro Fall?” Foreign Policy 79 (Summer): 132150.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Inter-American Dialogue (IAD) (1992) Cuba in the Americas: Reciprocal Challenges (A Report of the Inter-American Dialogue Task Force on Cuba). Washington, DC: Inter-American Dialogue.Google Scholar
Ojito, M. and Chardy, A. (1992) “Mas, Foundation May Face Competition in Shaping Cuba Policy.” Miami Herald (5 November).Google Scholar
Planas, J.R. (1993) “Why Does Castro Survive?,” forthcoming in Schulz, Donald E. (ed.) Cuba and the Future. Westport, CT: Greenwood Press.Google Scholar
Robinson., L. (1992) “After Castro Moves Out.” US News and World Report (4 May): 42, 44.Google Scholar
Rosenthal, A. (1991) “Soviet Pledge on Cuba Leaves US Paralyzed.” New York Times (13 September).Google Scholar
Schulz, D. (1993a) “Can Castro Survive?” Journal of Inter-American Studies and World Affairs 35, 1 (Spring):89117.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
(ed.) (1993b) Cuba and the Future. Westport, CT: Greenwood Press.Google Scholar
Smith, W. (1992a) “Castro: To Fall or Not To Fall?” SAIS Review 12, 2 (Summer): 97110.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, W. (1992b) Statement of Dr. Wayne S. Smith on the Cuban Democracy Act before the Subcommittee on Trade, US House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee, 10 August (pp. 18). Washington, DC: US Congress, US Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
de Tocqueville, A. (1955) The Old Regime and the French Revolution (reprint). Garden City, NY: Doubleday and Company.Google Scholar
Whitefield, M. (1993) “Castro: ‘I'd Quit to Ease Renewed US Ties.'” Miami Herald (5 March).Google Scholar
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