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Childhood waist growth curves and adult diabetes

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 September 2021

Matthew M. Carli ,
Roy T. Sabo Open the ORCID record for Roy T. Sabo [Opens in a new window]  and
Shumei S. Sun
Matthew M. Carli
Affiliation:
Department of Biostatistics, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA
Roy T. Sabo*
Affiliation:
Department of Biostatistics, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA
Shumei S. Sun
Affiliation:
Department of Biostatistics, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA
*
Address for correspondence: Roy T. Sabo, Department of Biostatistics, Virginia Commonwealth University, 830 East Main Street, Richmond, VA 23116, USA. Email: roy.sabo@vcuhealth.org
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Abstract

Our primary objectives are to empirically identify distinct childhood groups based on trajectories of waist circumference (WC) and waist circumference index measurements, and then to estimate associations between these groups and adult diabetes incidence, as well as other outcomes, including blood pressure, body size, body composition, and hemoglobin levels. Childhood WC and height measurements as well as various adult measurements are taken from participants in the Fels Longitudinal Study. Childhood groups are identified using group-based trajectory modeling. Associations between the resulting group probabilities and adult outcomes are examined using mixed models. Our results show that distinct childhood groups are identifiable for both waist size measurements, with growth curves exhibited by these groups becoming distinguishably separate at around 4 years of age. Higher probabilities for groups exhibiting the larger waist size for either measurement were estimated to have higher risks of developing diabetes in adulthood. Associations were also observed between group probabilities and systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and various anthropomorphic measurements, with most associations consistently occurring in early adulthood. These findings expand upon the existing literature, showing that childhood trends in waist size, distinguishable at ages as early as 4 years, are associated with adult Type-2 diabetes.

Keywords

Childhood waist circumferenceType-2 diabetes mellitusgroup-based trajectory modelgrowth mixture modeling
Type
Original Article
Information
Journal of Developmental Origins of Health and Disease , Volume 13 , Issue 5 , October 2022 , pp. 656 - 662
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Copyright
© The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press in association with International Society for Developmental Origins of Health and Disease

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