Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-cfpbc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-24T02:06:30.966Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

A meta-analysis of the literature on climate change and migration

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 March 2021

Michel Beine  and
Lionel Jeusette
Michel Beine*
Affiliation:
Department of Economics, University of Luxembourg, IZA, CREAM and CES-Ifo, Luxembourg, Luxembourg
Lionel Jeusette
Affiliation:
Department of Economics, University of Luxembourg, Luxembourg, Luxembourg
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail: michel.beine@uni.lu
Get access

Abstract

Recent surveys of the literature on climate change and migration emphasize the important diversity of outcomes and approaches of the empirical studies. In this paper, we conduct a meta-analysis in order to investigate the role of the methodological choices of these empirical studies in finding some particular results concerning the role of climatic factors as drivers of human mobility. We code 51 papers representative of the literature in terms of methodological approaches. This results in the coding of more than 85 variables capturing the methodology of the main dimensions of the analysis at the regression level. These dimensions include authors' reputation, type of mobility, measures of mobility, type of data, context of the study, econometric methods, and last but not least measures of the climatic factors. We look at the influence of these characteristics on the probability of finding any effect of climate change, a displacement effect, an increase in immobility, and evidence in favor of a direct vs. an indirect effect. Our results highlight the role of some important methodological choices, such as the frequency of the data on mobility, the level of development, the measures of human mobility and of the climatic factors as well as the econometric methodology.

Keywords

Climate changeeconometric regressionshuman mobilitymeta-analysisnatural disasters

JEL classification

Q54: Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global Warming J61: Geographic Labor Mobility • Immigrant Workers F22: International Migration C83: Survey Methods • Sampling Methods
Type
Research Paper
Information
Journal of Demographic Economics , Volume 87 , Special Issue 3: Climate Migration , September 2021 , pp. 293 - 344
Copyright
Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain 2021

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

Preliminary versions of this paper have been presented at seminars taking place at the University of Hamburg (Germany), the University of Padova (Italy), the University of Gent (Belgium) as well at workshops and conferences taking place at the University of Stanford, at the ETH in Zurich (Switzerland) and AFD (Paris, France).

References

Afifi, T. and Warner, K. (2008) The impact of environmental degradation on migration flows across countries. UNU-EHS Working Paper 5/2008, United Nations University.Google Scholar
Auffhammer, M., Hsiang, S., Schlenker, W. and Sobel, A. (2013) Using data and climate model output in economic analyses of climate change? Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 7(2), 181–198.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Backhaus, A., Martinez-Zarzoso, I. and Muris, C. (2015) Do climate variations explain bilateral migration? A gravity model analysis. IZA Journal of Migration 4(1), 3.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barrios, S., Bertinelli, L. and Strobl, E. (2006) Climatic change and rural–urban migration: the case of sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Urban Economics 60(3), 357–371.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beine, M., Noy, I. and Parsons, C. (2019) Climate change adaptation: voicing vs. migration. Unpublished.Google Scholar
Beine, M. and Parsons, C. (2015) Climatic factors as determinants of international migration. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics 117(2), 723–767.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beine, M. and Parsons, C. R. (2017) Climatic factors as determinants of international migration: Redux. CESifo Economic Studies 63(4), 386–402.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bennonier, T., Millock, K. and Taraz, V. (2019) Climate change, migration and irrigation. Technical report, HAL Archives ouvertes.Google Scholar
Berlemann, M. and Steinhardt, M. F. (2017) Climate change, natural disasters, and migration-a survey of the empirical evidence. CESifo Economic Studies 63(4), 353–385.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bettin, G. and Nicolli, F. (2012) Does climate change foster emigration from less developed countries? Evidence from bilateral data. Technical report, Working Papers 201210, University of Ferrara, Department of Economics.Google Scholar
Black, R., Arnell, N. W., Adger, W. N., Thomas, D. and Geddes, T. (2012) Migration, immobility and displacement outcomes following extreme events. Environmental Science and Policy 27, S32–S43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bohra-Mishra, P., Oppenheimer, M. and Hsiang, S. M. (2014) Nonlinear permanent migration response to climatic variations but minimal response to disasters. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111(27), 9780–9785.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Boustan, L., Kahn, M. and Rhode, P. W. (2012) Moving to higher ground: migration response to natural disasters in the early twentieth century. American Economic Review 102, 238–244.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Burzynski, M., Deuster, C., Docquier, F. and De Melo, J. (2018) Climate change, inequality and migration. Unpublished.Google Scholar
Cai, R., Feng, S., Oppenheimer, M. and Pytlikova, M. (2016) Climate variability and international migration: the importance of the agricultural linkage. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 79, 135–151.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cattaneo, C., Beine, M., Frölich, C. J., Kniveton, D., Martinez-Zarzozo, I., Mastrorillo, M., Millock, K., Piguet, E., and Schraven, B. (2019) Human migration in the era of climate change. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 13(2), 189–206.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cattaneo, C. and Peri, G. (2016) The migration response to increasing temperatures. Journal of Development Economics 122, 127–146.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coniglio, N. D. and Pesce, G. (2015) Climate variability and international migration: an empirical analysis. Environment and Development Economics 20(4), 434–468.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dallmann, I. and Millock, K. (2017) Climate variability and inter-state migration in India. CESifo Economic Studies 63(4), 560–594.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dillon, A., Mueller, V. and Salau, S. (2011) Migratory responses to agricultural risk in Northern Nigeria. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 93, 1048–1061.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Drabo, A. and Mbaye, L. M. (2015) Natural disasters, migration and education: an empirical analysis in developing countries. Environment and Development Economics 20(6), 767–796.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dun, O. (2011) Migration and displacement triggered by floods in the Mekong delta. International Migration 49, 200–223.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Felbermayr, G. and Gröschl, J. (2014) Naturally negative: the growth effects of natural disasters. Journal of Development Economics 111, 92–106.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Felbermayr, G. and Gröschl, J. (2015) A codebook for Ifo game natural hazard and disaster data. Report, CES Ifo.Google Scholar
Feng, S., Krueger, A. B. and Oppenheimer, M. (2010) Linkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico–US cross-border migration. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107(32), 14257–14262.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Feng, S., Oppenheimer, M. and Schlenker, W. (2012) Climate change, crop yields, and internal migration in the United States. Technical report, National Bureau of Economic Research.Google Scholar
Findley, S. (1994) Does drought increase migration? A study of migration from rural Mali during the 1983–1985 drought. International Economic Review 28, 539–553.Google ScholarPubMed
Gray, C. L. (2009) Environment, land, and rural out-migration in the Southern Ecuadorian Andes. World Development 37(2), 457–468.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gray, C. and Bilsborrow, R. (2013) Environmental influences on human migration in rural Ecuador. Demography 50(4), 1217–1241.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Gray, C. and Mueller, V. (2012a) Drought and population mobility in rural Ethiopia. World Development 40(1), 134–145.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gray, C. L. and Mueller, V. (2012b) Natural disasters and population mobility in Bangladesh. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109(16), 6000–6005.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gray, C. and Wise, E. (2016) Country-specific effects of climate variability on human migration. Climatic Change 135(3–4), 555–568.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Gröger, A. and Zylberberg, A. (2016) Internal labor migration as a shock coping strategy: evidence from a typhoon. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 8, 123–153.Google Scholar
Gröschl, J. (2012) Climate change and the relocation of population. Paper presented at the EEA-ESEM Annual Meeting, Malaga.Google Scholar
Gröschl, J. and Steinwachs, T. (2017) Do natural hazards cause international migration? CESifo Economic Studies 63(4), 445–480.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Henderson, J. V., Storeygard, A. and Deichmann, U. (2017) Has climate change driven urbanization in Africa? Journal of Development Economics 124, 60–82.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Henry, S., Boyle, P. and Lambin, E. F. (2003) Modelling inter-provincial migration in Burkina Faso, West Africa: the role of socio-demographic and environmental factors. Applied Geography 23(2), 115–136.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Henry, S., Schoumaker, B. and Beauchemin, C. (2004) The impact of rainfall on the first out-migration: a multi-level event-history analysis in Burkina Faso. Population & Environment 25(5), 423–460.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hirvonen, K. (2016) Temperature changes, household consumption, and internal migration: evidence from Tanzania. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 98(4), 1230–1249.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hornbeck, R. (2012) The enduring impact of the American dust bowl: short- and long-run adjustments to environmental catastrophe. American Economic Review 102, 1477–1507.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hunter, L. M., Murray, S. and Riosmena, F. (2013) Rainfall patterns and US migration from rural Mexico. International Migration Review 47(4), 874–909.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iqbal, K. and Roy, P. K. (2015) Climate change, agriculture and migration: evidence from Bangladesh. Climate Change Economics 6(02), 1550006.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jennings, J. A. and Gray, C. L. (2015) Climate variability and human migration in the Netherlands, 1865–1937. Population and Environment 36(3), 255–278.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Joseph, G. and Wodon, Q. (2013) Is internal migration in Yemen driven by climate or socio-economic factors? Review of International Economics 21(2), 295–310.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Khamis, M. and Xiyue, L. (2016) Environment matters: new evidence from Mexican migration. Unpublished.Google Scholar
Koubi, V., Schaffer, L., Spilker, G. and Böhmelt, T. (2018) Environmental migration: exposure, adaptation, and trapped populations. Unpublished.Google Scholar
Koubi, V., Spilker, G., Schaffer, L. and Bernauer, T. (2016a) Environmental stressors and migration: evidence from Vietnam. World Development 79, 197–210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Koubi, V., Spilker, G., Schaffer, L. and Böhmelt, T. (2016b) The role of environmental perceptions in migration decision-making: evidence from both migrants and non-migrants in five developing countries. Population and Environment 38(2), 134–163.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kron, W., Steuer, M., Löw, P. and Wirtz, A. (2012) How to deal properly with a natural catastrophe database-analysis of flood losses. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 12, 535–550.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mahajan, P. and Yang, D. (2017) Taken by storm: hurricanes, migrant networks, and US immigration. Working Paper 23756, National Bureau of Economic Research.Google Scholar
Marchiori, L., Maystadt, J.-F. and Schumacher, I. (2012) The impact of weather anomalies on migration in sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 63(3), 355–374.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mastrorillo, M., Licker, R., Bohra-Mishra, P., Fagiolo, G., Estes, L. D. and Oppenheimer, M. (2016) The influence of climate variability on internal migration flows in South Africa. Global Environmental Change 39, 155–169.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maurel, M., and Kubik, Z. (2016) Climate variability and migration: Evidence from Tanzania. Journal of Development Studies 52, 665–680.Google Scholar
Maurel, M. and Tuccio, M. (2016) Climate instability, urbanisation and international migration. The Journal of Development Studies 52(5), 735–752.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Millock, K. (2015) Migration and environment. Annual Review of Resource Economics 7, 35–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Missirian, A. and Schlenker, W. (2017) Asylum applications respond to temperature fluctuations. Science 358(6370), 1610–1614.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Mueller, V., Gray, C. and Kosec, K. (2014) Heat stress increases long-term human migration in rural Pakistan. Nature climate change 4(3), 182–185.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Mueller, V., Sheriff, G., Xiaoya, D., and Gray, C. (2019) Temporary migration and climate variation in Eastern Africa. World Development 126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104704.Google ScholarPubMed
Munshi, K. (2003) Networks in the modern economy: Mexican migrants in the US labor market. Quarterly Journal of Economics 118, 549–599.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Myers, N. (2002) Environmental refugees: a growing phenomenon of the 21st century. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society 357, 609–613.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Naudé, W. (2010) The determinants of migration from sub-Saharan African countries. Journal of African Economies 19, 330–356.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nawrotzki, R. J., and Bakhtsiyarava, M. (2017) International climate migration: evidence for the climate inhibitor mechanism and the agricultural pathway. Population, Space and Place 23(4).CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Nawrotzki, R. J., Riosmena, F. and Hunter, L. M. (2013) Do rainfall deficits predict US-bound migration from rural Mexico? Evidence from the Mexican census. Population Research and Policy Review 32(1), 129–158.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Noy, I. (2017) To leave or not to leave? Climate change, exit and voice on a pacific island. CESifo Economic Studies 63(4), 403–420.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Piguet, E., Kaenzig, R. and Guélat, J. (2018) The unequal geography of research on environmental migration. Population and Environment 39, 357–383.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Piguet, E., Pecoud, A. and de Guchteneire, P. (2011) Migration and climate change: an overview. Refugee Survey Quarterly 30, 1–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reuveny, R. and Moore, W. H. (2009) Does environmental degradation influence migration? Emigration to developed countries in the late 1980s and 1990s. Social Science Quarterly 90(3), 461–479.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ruiz, V. (2017) Do climatic events influence internal migration? Evidence from Mexico. FAERE Working Paper 2017.19, FAERE.Google Scholar
Ruyssen, I. and Glenn, R. (2013) Determinants of intraregional migration in sub-Saharan Africa 1980–2000. Journal of Development Studies 50, 426–443.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Strobl, E. (2015) The effect of weather-induced internal migration on local labor markets. Evidence from Uganda. World Bank Economic Review 29, 385–412.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thiede, B. C. and Gray, C. L. (2017) Heterogeneous climate effects on human migration in Indonesia. Population and Environment 39(2), 147–172.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Thiede, B., Gray, C. and Mueller, V. (2016) Climate variability and inter-provincial migration in South America, 1970–2011. Global Environmental Change 41, 228–240.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Viswanathan, B. and Kumar, K. K. (2015) Weather, agriculture and rural migration: evidence from state and district level migration in India. Environment and Development Economics 20(4), 469–492.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wooldridge, J. M. (2010) Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.Google Scholar