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A Branching Process for Virus Survival

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 February 2016

J. Theodore Cox*
Affiliation:
Syracuse University
Rinaldo B. Schinazi*
Affiliation:
University of Colorado
*
Postal address: Department of Mathematics, Syracuse University, 215 Carnegie Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244-1150, USA.
∗∗ Postal address: Department of Mathematics, University of Colorado, Colorado Springs, CO 80933-7150, USA. Email address: rschinaz@uccs.edu
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Abstract

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Quasispecies theory predicts that there is a critical mutation probability above which a viral population will go extinct. Above this threshold the virus loses the ability to replicate the best-adapted genotype, leading to a population composed of low replicating mutants that is eventually doomed. We propose a new branching model that shows that this is not necessarily so. That is, a population composed of ever changing mutants may survive.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© Applied Probability Trust 

Footnotes

Supported in part by NSF grant 0803517.

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