Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-jr42d Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-19T19:46:39.744Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Climate effects on crop yields in the Northeast Farming Region of China during 1961–2010

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 March 2016

X. G. YIN ,
J. E. OLESEN ,
M. WANG ,
I. ÖZTÜRK  and
F. CHEN
X. G. YIN
Affiliation:
College of Agronomy, China Agricultural University; and Key Laboratory of Farming system, Ministry of Agriculture of China, Beijing, 100193, China Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Blichers Alle 20, DK-8830 Tjele, Denmark
J. E. OLESEN
Affiliation:
Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Blichers Alle 20, DK-8830 Tjele, Denmark
M. WANG
Affiliation:
College of Agronomy, China Agricultural University; and Key Laboratory of Farming system, Ministry of Agriculture of China, Beijing, 100193, China
I. ÖZTÜRK
Affiliation:
Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Blichers Alle 20, DK-8830 Tjele, Denmark
F. CHEN*
Affiliation:
College of Agronomy, China Agricultural University; and Key Laboratory of Farming system, Ministry of Agriculture of China, Beijing, 100193, China
*
*To whom all correspondence should be addressed. Email: chenfu@cau.edu.cn
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Summary

Crop production in the Northeast Farming Region of China (NFR) is affected considerably by variation in climatic conditions. Data on crop yield and weather conditions from a number of agro-meteorological stations in NFR were used in a mixed linear model to evaluate the impacts of climatic variables on the yield of maize (Zea mays L.), rice (Oryza sativa L.), soybean (Glycine max L. Merr.) and spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in different crop growth phases. The crop growing season was divided into three growth phases based on the average crop phenological dates from records covering 1981 and 2010 at each station, comprising pre-flowering (from sowing to just prior to flowering), flowering (20 days around flowering) and post-flowering (10 days after flowering to maturity). The climatic variables were mean minimum temperature, thermal time (which is used to indicate changes in the length of growth cycles), average daily solar radiation, accumulated precipitation, aridity index (which is used to assess drought stress) and heat degree-days index (HDD) (which is used to indicate heat stress) were calculated for each growth phase and year. Over the 1961–2010 period, the minimum temperature increased significantly in each crop growth phase, the thermal time increased significantly in the pre-flowering phase of each crop and in the post-flowering phases of maize, rice and soybean, and HDD increased significantly in the pre-flowering phase of soybean and wheat. Average solar radiation decreased significantly in the pre-flowering phase of all four crops and in the flowering phase of soybean and wheat. Precipitation increased during the pre-flowering phase leading to less aridity, whereas reduced precipitation in the flowering and post-flowering phases enhanced aridity. Statistical analyses indicated that higher minimum temperature was beneficial for maize, rice and soybean yields, whereas increased temperature reduced wheat yield. Higher solar radiation in the pre-flowering phase was beneficial for maize yield, in the post-flowering phase for wheat yield, whereas higher solar radiation in the flowering phase reduced rice yield. Increased aridity in the pre-flowering and flowering phases severely reduced maize yield, higher aridity in the flowering and post-flowering phases reduced rice yield, and aridity in all growth phases reduced soybean and wheat yields. Higher HDD in all growth phases reduced maize and soybean yield and HDD in the pre-flowering phase reduced rice yield. Such effects suggest that projected future climate change may have marked effects on crop yield through effects of several climatic variables, calling for adaptation measures such as breeding and changes in crop, soil and agricultural water management.

Type
Climate Change and Agriculture Research Papers
Information
The Journal of Agricultural Science , Volume 154 , Issue 7 , September 2016 , pp. 1190 - 1208
Check for updates
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Asseng, S., Foster, I. & Turner, N. C. (2011). The impact of temperature variability on wheat yields. Global Change Biology 17, 997–1012.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Martre, P., Rötter, R. P., Lobell, D. B., Cammarano, D., Kimball, B. A., Ottman, M. J., Wall, G. W., White, J. W., Reynolds, M. P., Alderman, P. D., Prasad, P. V. V., Aggarwal, P. K., Anothai, J., Basso, B., Biernath, C., Challinor, A. J., De Sanctis, G., Doltra, J., Fereres, E., Garcia-Vila, M., Gayler, S., Hoogenboom, G., Hunt, L. A., Izaurralde, R. C., Jabloun, M., Jones, C. D., Kersebaum, K. C., Koehler, A-K., Müller, C., Naresh Kumar, S., Nendel, C., O'Leary, G., Olesen, J. E., Palosuo, T., Priesack, E., Eyshi Rezaei, E., Ruane, A. C., Semenov, M. A., Shcherbak, I., Stöckle, C., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F., Thorburn, P. J., Waha, K., Wang, E., Wallach, D., Wolf, J., Zhao, Z. & Zhu, Y. (2015). Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. Nature Climate Change 5, 143–147.Google Scholar
Baker, J. T. & Allen, L. H. (1993). Contrasting crop species responses to CO2 and temperature: rice, soybean and citrus. Vegetatio 104, 239–260.Google Scholar
Boote, K. J., Allen, L. H., Prasad, P. V. V., Baker, J. T., Gesch, R. W., Snyder, A. M., Pan, D. & Thomas, J. M. G. (2005). Elevated temperature and CO2 impacts on pollination, reproductive growth, and yield of several globally important crops. Journal of Agricultural Meteorology 60, 469–474.Google Scholar
Çakir, R. (2004). Effect of water stress at different development stages on vegetative and reproductive growth of corn. Field Crops Research 89, 1–16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Challinor, A. J., Wheeler, T. R., Craufurd, P. Q., Ferro, C. A. T. & Stephenson, D. B. (2007). Adaptation of crops to climate change through genotypic responses to mean and extreme temperatures. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 119, 190–204.Google Scholar
Chen, C., Lei, C., Deng, A., Qian, C., Hoogmoed, W. & Zhang, W. (2011). Will higher minimum temperatures increase corn production in Northeast China? An analysis of historical data over 1965–2008. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 151, 1580–1588.Google Scholar
Chen, C., Qian, C., Deng, A. & Zhang, W. (2012). Progressive and active adaptations of cropping system to climate change in Northeast China. European Journal of Agronomy 38, 94–103.Google Scholar
Commuri, P. D. & Jones, R. J. (2001). High temperatures during endosperm cell division in maize. Crop Science 41, 1122–1130.Google Scholar
CMA Archives (2011). China Meteorological Administration Archives. Beijing, China: CMA.Google Scholar
Deryng, D., Conway, D., Ramankutty, N., Price, J. & Warren, R. (2014). Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures. Environmental Research Letters 9, 034011. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034011 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ding, Y. H., Ren, G. Y., Shi, G. Y., Gong, P., Zheng, X. H., Zhai, P. M., Zhang, D. E., Zhao, Z. C., Wen, H. J., Wen, S. W., Luo, Y., Chen, D. L., Gao, X. J. & Dai, X. S. (2006). National assessment report of climate change (1): climate change in China and its future trend. Advances in Climate Change Research 2, 3–8. (in Chinese with English summary).Google Scholar
Gourdji, S. M., Sibley, A. M. & Lobell, D. B. (2013). Global crop exposure to critical high temperatures in the reproductive period: historical trends and future projections. Environmental Research Letters 8, 024041. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024041 Google Scholar
Hawkins, E., Fricker, T. E., Challinor, A. J., Ferro, C. A. T., Ho, C. K. & Osborne, T. M. (2013). Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s. Global Change Biology 19, 937–947.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hu, Q. & Buyanovsky, G. (2003). Climate effects on corn yield in Missouri. Journal of Applied Meteorology 42, 1626–1635.Google Scholar
IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013. The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Ji, R. P., Che, Y. S., Zhu, Y. N., Liang, T., Feng, R., Yu, W. Y. & Zhang, Y. S. (2012). Impacts of drought stress on the growth and development and grain yield of spring maize in Northeast China. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology 23, 3021–3026. (in Chinese with English summary).Google Scholar
Jia, J. Y. & Guo, J. P. (2011). Characteristics of climate change in northeast China for last 46 years. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment 25, 109–115. (in Chinese with English summary).Google Scholar
Ju, H., Xiong, W. & Xu, Y. (2008). Response of spring wheat to climatic change in Northeast China. Ecology and Environment 17, 1595–1598. (in Chinese with English summary).Google Scholar
Ju, H., Xiong, W., Xu, Y. & Lin, E. (2005). Impacts of climate change on wheat yield in China. Acta Agronomica Sinica 31, 1340–1343. (in Chinese with English summary)Google Scholar
Kristensen, K., Schelde, K. & Olesen, J. E. (2011). Winter wheat yield response to climate variability in Denmark. Journal of Agricultural Science, Cambridge 149, 33–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Li, Q. F., Zhang, H. L. & Chen, F. (2008). Changes in spatial distribution and planting structure of major crops in Northeast China. Journal of China Agricultural University 13, 74–79. (in Chinese with English summary).Google Scholar
Li, Z. G., Yang, P., Tang, H. J., Wu, W. B., Chen, Z. X., Zhou, Q. B., Zou, J. Q. & Zhang, L. (2011). Trend analysis of typical phenophases of major crops under climate change in the three provinces of Northeast China. Scientia Agricultura Sinica 44, 4180–4189. (in Chinese with English summary).Google Scholar
Liu, B., Liu, L., Tian, L., Cao, W., Zhu, Y. & Asseng, S. (2014). Post-heading heat stress and yield impact in winter wheat of China. Global Change Biology 20, 372–381.Google Scholar
Liu, L., Hu, C., Olesen, J. E., Ju, Z., Yang, P. & Zhang, Y. (2013 a). Warming and nitrogen fertilization effects on winter wheat yields in northern China varied between four years. Field Crops Research 151, 56–64.Google Scholar
Liu, X. & Chen, F. (2005). Chinese Farming Systems. Beijing: China Agriculture Press.Google Scholar
Liu, Z., Yang, X., Chen, F. & Wang, E. (2013 b). The effects of past climate change on the northern limits of maize planting in Northeast China. Climatic Change 117, 891–902.Google Scholar
Liu, Z., Yang, X., Hubbard, K. G. & Lin, X. (2012). Maize potential yields and yield gaps in the changing climate of Northeast China. Global Change Biology 18, 3441–3454.Google Scholar
Lobell, D. B., Bänziger, M., Magorokosho, C. & Vivek, B. (2011). Nonlinear heat effects on African maize as evidenced by historical yield trials. Nature Climate Change 1, 42–45.Google Scholar
Lobell, D. B., Sibley, A. & Ortiz-Monasterio, J. I. (2012). Extreme heat effects on wheat senescence in India. Nature Climate Change 2, 186–189.Google Scholar
Lobell, D. B., Hammer, G. L., McLean, G., Messina, C., Roberts, M. J. & Schlenker, W. (2013). The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States. Nature Climate Change 3, 497–501.Google Scholar
Luo, Q. (2011). Temperature thresholds and crop production: a review. Climatic Change 109, 583–598.Google Scholar
Ma, S. Q., Wang, Q., Zhang, T. L., Yu, H., Xu, L. P. & Ji, L. L. (2014). Response of maize emergence rate and yield to soil water stress in period of seeding emergence and its meteorological assessment in central area of Jilin Province. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology 25, 451–457. (in Chinese with English summary).Google ScholarPubMed
Meng, M., Ni, J. & Zhang, Z. G. (2004). Aridity index and its applications in geo-ecological study. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology 28, 853–861. (in Chinese with English summary).Google Scholar
Montgomery, D. C., Peck, E. A. & Vining, G. G. (2012). Introduction to Linear Regression Analysis. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Muchow, R. C. & Carberry, P. S. (1989). Environmental control of phenology and leaf growth in a tropically adapted maize. Field Crops Research 20, 221–236.Google Scholar
Olesen, J. E., Bøcher, P. K. & Jensen, T. (2000). Comparison of scales of climate and soil data for aggregating simulated yields of winter wheat in Denmark. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 82, 213–228.Google Scholar
Olesen, J. E., Trnka, M., Kersebaum, K. C., Skjelvåg, A. O., Seguin, B., Peltonen-Sainio, P., Rossi, F., Kozyra, J. & Micale, F. (2011). Impacts and adaptation of European crop production systems to climate change. European Journal of Agronomy 34, 96–112.Google Scholar
Olesen, J. E., Borgesen, C. D., Elsgaard, L., Palosuo, T., Rotter, R. P., Skjelvag, A. O., Peltonen-Sainio, P., Borjesson, T., Trnka, M., Ewert, F., Siebert, S., Brisson, N., Eitzinger, J., van Asselt, E. D., Oberforster, M. & van der Fels-Klerx, H. J. (2012). Changes in time of sowing, flowering and maturity of cereals in Europe under climate change. Food Additives and Contaminants. Part A, Chemistry, Analysis, Control, Exposure and Risk Assessment 29, 1527–1542.Google Scholar
Peng, S., Huang, J., Sheehy, J. E., Laza, R. C., Visperas, R. M., Zhong, X., Centeno, G. S., Khush, G. S. & Cassman, K. G. (2004). Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 101, 9971–9975.Google Scholar
Piao, S., Ciais, P., Huang, Y., Shen, Z., Peng, S., Li, J., Zhou, L., Liu, H., Ma, Y., Ding, Y., Friedlingstein, P., Liu, C., Tan, K., Yu, Y., Zhang, T. & Fang, J. (2010). The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature 467, 43–51.Google Scholar
PINC Archives (2011). Planting Information Network of China. Beijing: China. Available from: http://zzys.agri.gov.cn/nongqing.aspx (verified 8 February 2016). In Chinese.Google Scholar
Porter, J. R. (2005) Rising temperatures are likely to reduce crop yields. Nature 436, 174.Google Scholar
Rietveld, M. R. (1978). A new method for estimating the regression coefficients in the formula relating solar radiation to sunshine. Agricultural Meteorology 19, 243–252.Google Scholar
Salem, M. A., Kakani, V. G., Koti, S. & Reddy, K. R. (2007). Pollen-based screening of soybean genotypes for high temperatures. Crop Science 47, 219–231.Google Scholar
Sánchez, B., Rasmussen, A. & Porter, J. R. (2014). Temperatures and the growth and development of maize and rice: a review. Global Change Biology 20, 408–417.Google Scholar
Schlenker, W. & Roberts, M. (2009). Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U. S. crop yields under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 106, 15594–15598.Google Scholar
Semenov, M. A. & Shewry, P. R. (2011). Modelling predicts that heat stress, not drought, will increase vulnerability of wheat in Europe. Scientific Reports 1, 66. doi: 10.1038/srep00066.Google Scholar
Snyder, R., Orang, M., Geng, S., Matyac, S. & Sarreshteh, S. (2005). SIMETAW (simulation of evapotranspiration of applied water). California Water Plan Update 4, 211–226.Google Scholar
Sun, W. & Huang, Y. (2011). Global warming over the period 1961–2008 did not increase high-temperature stress but did reduce low-temperature stress in irrigated rice across China. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 151, 1193–1201.Google Scholar
Tao, F., Yokozawa, M., Liu, J. & Zhang, Z. (2008). Climate–crop yield relationships at provincial scales in China and the impacts of recent climate trends. Climate Research 38, 83–94.Google Scholar
Tao, F., Zhang, Z., Shi, W., Liu, Y., Xiao, D., Zhang, S., Zhu, Z., Wang, M. & Liu, F. (2013). Single rice growth period was prolonged by cultivars shifts, but yield was damaged by climate change during 1981–2009 in China, and late rice was just opposite. Global Change Biology 19, 3200–3209.Google Scholar
Tao, F., Zhang, S., Zhang, Z. & Rötter, R. P. (2014). Maize growing duration was prolonged across China in the past three decades under the combined effects of temperature, agronomic management, and cultivar shift. Global Change Biology 20, 3686–3699.Google Scholar
Tashiro, T. & Wardlaw, I. F. (1989). A comparison of the effect of high temperature on grain development in wheat and rice. Annals of Botany 64, 59–65.Google Scholar
Teixeira, E. I., Fischer, G., van Velthuizen, H., Walter, C. & Ewert, F. (2013). Global hot-spots of heat stress on agricultural crops due to climate change. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 170, 206–215.Google Scholar
Trnka, M., Brázdil, R., Olesen, J. E., Eitzinger, J., Zahradníček, P., Kocmánková, E., Dobrovolný, P., Štěpánek, P., Možný, M., Bartošová, L., Hlavinka, P., Semerádová, D., Valášek, H., Havlíček, M., Horáková, V., Fischer, M. & Žalud, Z. (2012). Could the changes in regional crop yields be a pointer of climatic change? Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 166–167, 62–71.Google Scholar
Trnka, M., Rötter, R. P., Ruiz-ramos, M., Kersebaum, K. C., Olesen, J. E., Žalud, Z. & Semenov, M. A. (2014). Adverse weather conditions for European wheat production will become more frequent with climate change. Nature Climate Change 4, 637–643.Google Scholar
Tubiello, F. N., Soussana, J. F. & Howden, S. M. (2007). Crop and pasture response to climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 104, 19686–19690.Google Scholar
Vignjevic, M., Wang, X., Olesen, J. E. & Wollenweber, B. (2015). Traits in spring wheat cultivars associated with yield loss caused by a heat stress episode after anthesis. Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science 201, 32–48.Google Scholar
Xu, X., Ge, Q., Zheng, J., Dai, E., Zhang, X., He, S. & Liu, G. (2013). Agricultural drought risk analysis based on three main crops in prefecture-level cities in the monsoon region of east China. Natural Hazards 66, 1257–1272.Google Scholar
Yoshida, S. (1981). Fundamentals of Rice Crop Science. Los Banos, the Philippines: IRRI.Google Scholar
Yuan, B., Guo, J. P., Ye, M. Z. & Zhao, J. F. (2012). Variety distribution pattern and climatic potential productivity of spring maize in Northeast China under climate change. Chinese Science Bulletin 57, 3497–3508.Google Scholar
Zhang, J. (2004). Risk assessment of drought disaster in the maize-growing region of Songliao Plain, China. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 102, 133–153.Google Scholar
Zhang, W. J., Chen, J., Xu, Z. Y., Chen, C. Q., Deng, A. X., Qian, C. R. & Dong, W. J. (2012). Actual responses and adaptations of rice cropping system to global warming in Northeast China. Scientia Agricultura Sinica 45, 1265–1273. (in Chinese with English summary).Google Scholar
Zhao, Z. & Luo, Y. (2007). Projections of climate change over northeastern China for the 21st century. Journal of Meteorology and Environment 23, 1–4. (in Chinese with English summary).Google Scholar
Zhao, H., Dai, T., Jing, Q., Jiang, D. & Cao, W. (2007). Leaf senescence and grain filling affected by post-anthesis high temperatures in two different wheat cultivars. Plant Growth Regulation 51, 149–158.Google Scholar
Zheng, B., Chenu, K., Dreccer, M. F. & Chapman, S. C. (2012 a). Breeding for the future: what are the potential impacts of future frost and heat events on sowing and flowering time requirements for Australian bread wheat (Triticum aestivum) varieties? Global Change Biology 18, 2899–2914.Google Scholar
Zheng, H. F., Chen, L. D. & Han, X. Z. (2009). The effects of global warming on soybean yields in a long-term fertilization experiment in Northeast China. The Journal of Agricultural Science, Cambridge 147, 569–580.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zheng, X. L., Zhang, B. S. & Kou, H. (2012 b). Main problems and developing countermeasures of soybean in Northeast China. Heilongjiang Agricultural Sciences 2, 146–149. (in Chinese with English summary).Google Scholar
Zuur, A. F., Ieno, E. N. & Elphick, C. S. (2010). A protocol for data exploration to avoid common statistical problems. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 1, 3–14.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Yin supplementary material

Figures 1S-4S and Tables 1S-2S

Download Yin supplementary material(File)
File 2 MB