Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-2pzkn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-30T11:55:30.172Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The Politics of Financial Crisis Response in Japan and the United States

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 August 2013

PHILLIP Y. LIPSCY
Affiliation:
Assistant Professor of Political Science at Stanford University and the Thomas Rohlen Center Fellow at the Shorenstein Asia Pacific Research Centerplipscy@stanford.edu
HIROFUMI TAKINAMI
Affiliation:
Former Visiting Fellow, the Shorenstein Asia Pacific Research Center, Stanford University and Former Visiting Scholar, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japanhtaki@aol.com

Abstract

We examine the politics of financial crisis response in Japan and the United States. Many existing accounts of Japan's ‘lost decade’ of the 1990s have emphasized Japan-specific factors, such as structural problems, policy errors, and political dysfunction. We argue that Japan may have been subject to a form of first-mover disadvantage. Like innovation in the private sector, developing effective solutions to novel policy problems requires a messy process of discovery, experimentation, and repeated failure. Much as late-industrializing countries adapted the methods and technologies of early developers, second-movers can apply effective policies demonstrated by first-movers in a more targeted, efficient, and rapid manner. We show that the behavior of Japan and the United States during their respective financial crises is broadly consistent with this theory. In addition, policy adoption in the United States most clearly reflected lessons from Japan in areas where the lessons were considered clear and implementation was less politicized.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2013 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Acs, Zoltan J. and Audretsch, David B. (1988), ‘Innovation in Large and Small Firms: An Empirical Analysis’, American Economic Review, 78 (4): 678–90.Google Scholar
Adler, Emanuel and Haas, Peter M. (1992), ‘Epistemic Communities, International Cooperation and World Order: Creating a Reflective Research Program’, International Organization, 46 (1): 367–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alesina, Albeto (2010), ‘Fiscal Adjustments: Lessons from Recent History’, paper prepared for the ECOFIN meeting.Google Scholar
Alesina, Alberto and Ardagna, Silvia (2009), ‘Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes Versus Spending’, NBER Working Paper 15438, National Bureau of Economic Research.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Allen, Franklin and Gale, Douglas (1999), ‘Bubbles, Crises, and Policy’, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 15 (3): 918.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Allen, L., Chakraborty, S., and Watanabe, W. (2009), ‘Regulatory Remedies for Banking Crises: Lessons from Japan’, Unpublished Working Paper, CUNY Baruch College.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Amyx, Jennifer (2006), Japan's Financial Crisis: Institutional Rigidity and Reluctant Change, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Arai, Yoichi and Hoshi, Takeo (2006), ‘Monetary Policy in the Great Stagnation’, in Hutchison, Michael M. and Westermann, Frank (eds.), Japan's Great Stagnation, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Attewell, Paul (1992), ‘Technology Diffusion and Organizational Learning: The Case of Business Computing’, Organization Science, 3 (1): 119.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bernanke, Ben S. (2000a), Essays on the Great Depression, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bernanke, Ben S. (2000b), ‘Japanese Monetary Policy: A Case of Self-Induced Paralysis?’, in Posen, Adam S. and Mikitani, Ryoichi (eds.), Japan's Financial Crisis and Its Parallels to US Experience, Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics.Google Scholar
Bernanke, Ben S. and Blinder, Alan S. (1992), ‘The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission’, The American Economic Review, 82 (4): 901–21.Google Scholar
Bernanke, Ben S. and Reinhart, Vincent R. (2004), ‘Conducting Monetary Policy at Very Low Short-Term Interest Rates’, AEA Papers and Proceedings, 94 (2): 8590.Google Scholar
Broz, J. Lawrence (2010), ‘Partisan Financial Cycles’, in Politics in Hard Times: The Great Recession and Contemporary Politics. A Conference in Honor of Peter A. Gourevitch.Google Scholar
Caballero, Ricardo J., Hoshi, Takeo, and Kashyap, Anil K. (2008), ‘Zombie Lending and Depressed Restructuring in Japan’, American Economic Review, 98 (5): 1943–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cevallos, Diego (2009), ‘Health-Mexico: Shunned Abroad, Negligence at Home’, IPS News Agency.Google Scholar
Chinn, Menzie D. and Frieden, Jeffry A. (2011), Lost Decades: The Making of America's Debt Crisis and the Long Recovery, W. W. Norton & Company.Google Scholar
Christiano, Lawrence J., Eichenbaum, Martin, and Evans, Charles (1996), ‘The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds’, Review of Economics and Statistics, 78 (1): 1634.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Christiano, Lawrence J., Eichenbaum, Martin, and Evans, Charles (2005), ‘Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy’, Journal of Political Economy, 113 (1).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, Benjamin C. (2009), ‘A Grave Case of Myopia’, International Interactions, 35 (4): 436–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, Benjamin C. (1996), ‘Phoenix Risen: The Resurrection of Global Finance’, World Politics, 48 (2): 268–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Daigo, Satoshi (1999), ‘Jika Kaikei Koso Kinyu Saisei No Infura’, Ronso Toyo Keizai, March.Google Scholar
Daigo, Satoshi, Yonetani, Tatsuya, and Marumo, Kouhei (1999), ‘Banks Recapitalization Policies in Japan and Their Impact on the Market’, Journal of International Financial Markets, 9: 223–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli and Detragiache, Enrica (1998), ‘The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries’, Staff Papers – International Monetary Fund, 45 (1): 81109.Google Scholar
Denzau, Arthur D. and North, Douglass C. (1994), ‘Shared Mental Models: Ideologies and Institutions’, Kyklos, 47 (1): 331.Google Scholar
Eggertsson, Gauti B. and Krugman, Paul (2012), ‘Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher–Minsky–Koo Approach’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 127 (3): 1469–513.Google Scholar
Eichengreen, Barry J. (1996), Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919–1939, Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eichengreen, Barry and Rose, Andrew K. (1998), ‘Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises’, NBER Working Paper No. W6370, National Bureau of Economic Research.Google Scholar
Eichengreen, Barry and Sachs, Jeffrey (1985), ‘Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s’, The Journal of Economic History, 45 (4): 925–46.Google Scholar
Ergungor, O. Emre and Thomson, James B. (2005), ‘Systemic Banking Crises’, Policy Discussion Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (9).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Feldman, Maryann P. (1994), ‘Knowledge Complementarity and Innovation’, Small Business Economics, 6 (5): 363–72.Google Scholar
Finnemore, Martha (1993), ‘International Organizations as Teachers of Norms: The United Nations Educational Scientific, and Cultural Organization and Science Policy’, International Organization, 47 (4): 565–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Finnemore, Martha, and Sikkink, Kathryn (1998), ‘International norm dynamics and political change’, International Organization, 52 (4): 887917.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Freedman, David A. (2008), ‘On Types of Scientific Enquiry: The Role of Qualitative Reasoning’, in Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M., Brady, Henry E., and Collier, David (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology, Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Friedman, Milton (1968), ‘The Role of Monetary Policy’, The American Economic Review, 58 (1): 117.Google Scholar
Friedman, Milton and Schwartz, Anna Jacobson (1971), A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Gavin, Michael and Hausmann, Ricardo (1996), ‘The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context’, in Hausmann, Ricardo and Rojas-Suarez, Liliana (eds.), Banking Crises in Latin America, Inter-American Development Bank.Google Scholar
Gerschenkron, Alexander (1962), Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective, New York: Praeger.Google Scholar
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede and Ward, Michael D. (2006), ‘Diffusion and the International Context of Democratization’, International Organization, 60 (4): 911–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gorton, Gary B. (2010), Slapped by the Invisible Hand: The Panic of 2007, Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Grimes, William W. (2002), Unmaking the Japanese Miracle: Macroeconomic Politics, 1985–2000, Ithaca: Cornell University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haas, Peter M. (1992), ‘Introduction. Epistemic Communities and International Policy Coordination’, International Organization, 46 (1): 135.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hall, Peter (1993), ‘Policy Paradigms, Social Learning, and the State: The Case of Economic Policymaking in Britain’, Comparative Politics, 23(April): 275–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Helleiner, Eric (1994), States and the Reemergence of Global Finance: From Bretton Woods to the 1990s, Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Helleiner, Eric (2011), ‘Understanding the 2007–2008 Global Financial Crisis: Lessons for Scholars of International Political Economy’, Annual Review of Political Science, 14: 6787.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hicks, John Richard (1937), ‘Mr. Keynes and the “Classics”‘, Econometrica, 5 (2): 147–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Horton, Mark, Kumar, Manmohan, and Mauro, Paolo (2009), ‘The State of Public Finances: A Cross-Country Fiscal Monitor’, IMF Staff Position Note, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Hoshi, T. and Kashyap, A. K. (2008), ‘Will the Us Bank Recapitalization Succeed? Lessons from Japan’, NBER Working Paper 14401, National Bureau of Economic Research.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hoshi, Takeo and Patrick, Hugh (2000), Crisis and Change in the Japanese Financial System, Norwell: Kluwer Academic Publishers.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hsieh, Ying-Hen (2003), ‘Politics Hindering Sars Work’, Nature, 422 (647): 381.Google Scholar
Hutchison, Michael M. and Westermann, Frank (2006), Japan's Great Stagnation, Cesifo Seminar Series, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund (2010), World Economic Outlook, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.Google Scholar
Ito, Takatoshi, Patrick, Hugh, and Weinstein, David E. (2005), Reviving Japan's Economy: Problems and Perspectives, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Jaffe, Adam B. (1989), ‘Real Effects of Academic Research’, American Economic Review, 79 (5): 957–70.Google Scholar
Johnson, Chalmers A. (1982), Miti and the Japanese Miracle: The Growth of Industrial Policy, 1925–1975, Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnson, Simon (2009), ‘The Quiet Coup’, The Atlantic Online, May.Google Scholar
Kaminsky, Graciela L. and Reinhart, Carmen M. (1999), ‘The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems’, The American Economic Review, 89 (3): 473500.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Katz, Richard (1998), Japan, the System that Soured: The Rise and Fall of the Japanese Economic Miracle, New York: M.E. Sharpe.Google Scholar
Kindleberger, Charles P. (2000), Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Fianncial Crises, New York: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
Koo, Richard C. (2009), The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics, Singapore: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
Krugman, Paul (2000), The Return of Depression Economics, New York: W. W. Norton & Company.Google Scholar
Krugman, Paul R., Dominquez, Kathryn M., and Rogoff, Kenneth (1998), ‘It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap’, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2): 137205.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kume, Ikuo (2009), ‘Koteki Shikin Wo Meguru Seiji Katei’, in Ikeo, Kazuto (ed.), Baburu/Defureki No Nihon Keizai to Keizai Seisaku, Tokyo: Keio University Press.Google Scholar
Kumhof, M. and Rancière, R. (2011), ‘Inequality, Leverage, and Crises’, IMF Working Paper WP/10/268.Google Scholar
Kuttner, Kenneth N. and Posen, Adam S. (2004), ‘The Difficulty of Discerning What's Too Tight: Taylor Rules and Japanese Monetary Policy’, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 15 (1): 5374.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laeven, Luc and Valencia, Fabian (2008), ‘Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database’, IMF Working Paper WP/08/224.Google Scholar
Leeper, Eric M., Sims, Christopher A., Zha, Tao, Hall, Robert E., and Bernanke, Ben S. (1996), ‘What Does Monetary Policy Do?’, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2): 178.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lincoln, Edward J. (2001), Arthritic Japan: The Slow Pace of Economic Reform, Washington, DC: Brookings Instituiton Press.Google Scholar
Lipscy, Phillip Y. (2012), Financial Crisis and Democracy, Stanford, CA: Stanford University.Google Scholar
Lucas, Robert (1988), ‘On the Mechanics of Economic Development’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22 (1): 342.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mankiw, N. Gregory, Romer, David, and Weil, David N. (1992), ‘A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107 (2): 407–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McCallum, Bennett (2000), ‘Theoretical Analysis Regarding a Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates’, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 32 (4): 870904.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meltzer, Allan H. (2000), ‘Monetary Policy in the New Global Economy: The Case of Japan’, Cato Journal, 20 (1): 6972.Google Scholar
Mikuni, Akio and Murphy, R. Taggart (2003), Japan's Policy Trap, Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.Google Scholar
Miyagawa, Shigeyoshi and Morita, Yoji (2009), ‘Financial Crisis of Finland, Sweden, Norway and Japan’, Journal of the Faculty of Economics, KGU, 19 (1): 4577.Google Scholar
Mosley, Layna and Singer, David A. (2009), ‘The Global Financial Crisis’, International Interactions, 35 (4): 420–29.Google Scholar
Okimoto, Daniel I. (1990), Between Miti and the Market: Japanese Industrial Policy for High Technology, Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Ostrom, Elinor, Gardner, Roy, and Walker, James (1994), Rules, Games, and Common-Pool Resources, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pauly, Louis W. (2008a), ‘Financial Crisis Management in Europe and Beyond’, Contributions to Political Economy, 27 (Summer): 117.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pauly, Louis W. (2008b), ‘The Political Economy of Global Financial Crises’, in Ravenhill, John, Global Political Economy, Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Pauly, Louis W. (1997), Who Elected the Bankers?: Surveillance and Control in the World Economy, Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Pierson, Paul (2000), ‘Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics’, The American Political Science Review, 94 (2): 251–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Porter, Michael E., Takeuchi, Hirokata, and Sakakibara, Mariko (2000), Can Japan Compete? New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
Posen, Adam (1998), Restoring Japan's Economic Growth, Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics.Google Scholar
Prestowitz, Clyde V. (1988), Trading Places: How We Allowed Japan to Take the Lead, Basic Books.Google Scholar
Rajan, Raghuram (2010), Fault Lines, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Rancière, Romain, Tornell, Aaron, and Westermann, Frank (2008), ‘Systemic Crises and Growth’, The Quarterly Journal of Economics (Februrary).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reinhart, Carmen M. and Reinhart, Vincent R. (2008), ‘Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present’, NBER Working Paper No. W14321, National Bureau of Economic Research.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reinhart, Carmen M. and Rogoff, Kenneth (2008), ‘Is the 2007 US Subprime Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison’, American Economic Review, 98 (2): 339–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reinhart, Carmen M. and Rogoff, Kenneth S. (2009), This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Rogers, Everett (1983), The Diffusion of Innovation, New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Romer, Christina D. and Romer, David H. (1989), ‘Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz’, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 4: 121–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Romer, Paul (1990), ‘Endogenous Technological Change’, Journal of Political Economy, 985 (2): 71102.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosas, Guillermo (2009), Curbing Bailouts: Bank Crises and Democratic Accountability in Comparative Perspective, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosenbluth, Frances McCall and Thies, Michael F. (2001), ‘The Electoral Politics of Japanese Banking: The Case of Jusen’, Policy Studies Journal, 29 (1): 2337.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sacks, Paul M. (1980), ‘State Structure and the Asymmetrical Society: An Approach to Public Policy in Britain’, Comparative Politics, 12 (3): 349–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Saxonhouse, Gary R. and Stern, Robert M. (2004) Japan's Lost Decade, Oxford: Blackwell Publishing.Google Scholar
Shrieves, Ronald E. and Dahl, Drew (2003), ‘Discretionary Accounting and the Behavior of Japanese Banks under Financial Duress’, Journal of Banking & Finance, 27: 1219–43.Google Scholar
Simmons, Beth A., Dobbin, Frank, and Garrett, Geoffrey (2008), The Global Diffusion of Markets and Democracy, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Simmons, Beth, Guzman, Andrew, and Elkins, Zachary (2006), ‘Competing for Capital: The Diffusion of Bilateral Investment Treaties, 1960–2000’, International Organization, 60 (4): 811–46.Google Scholar
Skinner, Douglas J. (2008), ‘The Rise of Deferred Tax Assets in Japan: The Role of Deferred Tax Accounting in the Japanese Banking Crisis’, Journal ofAccountingandEconomics, 46: 218–39.Google Scholar
Solow, Robert M. (1956), ‘A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70 (1): 6594.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Solow, Robert M. (1957), ‘Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function’, Review of Economics and Statistics, 39 (3): 312–20.Google Scholar
Sorkin, Andrew Ross (2009), Too Big to Fail, New York: Viking.Google Scholar
Tabb, William (1995), The Postwar Japanese System: Cultural Economy and Economic Transformation, New York: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Toniolo, Gianni (2005), Central Bank Cooperation at the Bank for International Settlements, 1930–1973, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Vargas-Parada, Laura (2009), ‘H1n1: A Mexican Perspective’, Cell, 139 (7): 1203–05.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Vogel, Ezra (1979), Japan as Number One: Lessons for America, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Vogel, Steven K. (2006), Japan Remodeled, Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Volden, Craig, Ting, Michael M., and Carpenter, Daniel P. (2008), ‘A Formal Model of Learning and Policy Diffusion’, American Political Science Review, 102 (03): 319–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Williamson, Oliver E. (1993), ‘Transaction Cost Economics and Organization Theory’, Industrial and Corporate Change, 2: 107–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yang, Dali L. (2006), Remaking the Chinese Leviathan: Market Transition and the Politics of Governance in China, Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Young, Alwyn (1993), ‘Invention and Bounded Learning by Doing’, Journal of Political Economy, 101 (3): 443–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Young, Oran R. (1991), ‘Political Leadership and Regime Formation: On the Development of Institutions in International Society’, International Organization, 45 (Summer).Google Scholar