Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-dfsvx Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-26T03:30:25.945Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Pretty (and) invasive: The potential global distribution of Tithonia diversifolia under current and future climates

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 September 2021

Jessica M. Kriticos Open the ORCID record for Jessica M. Kriticos [Opens in a new window]  and
Darren J. Kriticos Open the ORCID record for Darren J. Kriticos [Opens in a new window]
Jessica M. Kriticos*
Affiliation:
Student, Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia
Darren J. Kriticos
Affiliation:
Senior Principal Research Scientist, CSIRO, Canberra, ACT, Australia; Honorary Professor, University of Queensland, School of Biological Science, St. Lucia, QLD, Australia
*
Author for correspondence: Jessica Kriticos, 7 Plummer Street, Weetangera, Canberra, ACT 2614, Australia. Email: jmkriticos@gmail.com
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Mexican sunflower [Tithonia diversifolia (Hemsl.) A. Gray] is an invasive plant, native to the New World, and an exemplary conflict species. It has been planted widely for its ornamental and soil fertility enhancement qualities and has become a notorious environmental weed in introduced habitats. Here we use a bioclimatic niche model (CLIMEX) to estimate the potential global distribution of this invasive plant under historical climatic conditions. We apply a future climate scenario to the model to assess the sensitivity of the modeled potential geographic range to expected climate changes to 2050. Under current climatic conditions, there is potential for substantial range expansion into southern Europe with moderate climate suitability, and in southern China with highly suitable climates. Under the near-term future climate scenario, there is potential for poleward range expansion in the order of 200 to 500 km. In the tropics, climatic conditions are likely to become less favorable due to the increasing frequency of supra-optimal temperatures. In areas experiencing Mediterranean or warm temperate climates, the suitability for T. diversifolia appears set to increase as temperatures warm. There are vast areas in North America, Europe, and Asia (particularly China and India) that can support ephemeral populations of T. diversifolia. One means of enjoying the aesthetic benefits of T. diversifolia in gardens while avoiding the unwanted environmental impacts where it invades is to prevent its spread into areas climatically suitable for establishment and only allow it to be propagated in areas where it cannot persist naturally.

Keywords

Bioclimatic modelingCLIMEXconflict species
Type
Research Article
Information
Invasive Plant Science and Management , Volume 14 , Issue 4 , December 2021 , pp. 205 - 213
Check for updates
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Weed Science Society of America

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

Associate Editor: Catherine Jarnevich, U.S. Geological Survey

References

Acevedo-Rodríguez, P, Strong, MT (2012) Catalogue of Seed Plants of the West Indies. Smithsonian Contributions to Botany 98. Washington, DC: Smithsonian Institution. 1192 pCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Andrewartha, HG, Birch, LC (1984) The Ecological Web: More on the Distribution and Abundance of Animals. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. 506 p Google Scholar
Chamberlin, TC (1965) The method of multiple working hypotheses. Science 148:754–759 CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Chukwuka, K, Ogunyemi, S, Fawole, I (2007) Ecological distribution of Tithonia diversifolia (Hemsl). A. Gray—a new exotic weed in Nigeria. J Biol Sci 7:709–719 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Elith, J, Leathwick, J (2009) Species distribution models: ecological explanation and prediction across space and time. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 40:677–697 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[GBIF] Global Biodiversity Information Facility (2021) Tithonia diversifolia (Hemsl.) A. Gray in GBIF Secretariat. GBIF Backbone Taxonomy [Checklist dataset]. https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.8ter8g. Accessed: September 22, 2021CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grime, JP (1974) Vegetation classification by reference to strategies. Nature 250:26–31 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Groves, R, Boden, R, Lonsdale, W (2005) Jumping the Garden Fence: Invasive Garden Plants in Australia and Their Environmental and Agricultural Impacts. Sydney: CSIRO. 173 p Google Scholar
Guisan, A, Zimmermann, NE (2000) Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecol Model 135:147–186 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[IPCC] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014) Summary for Policymakers. Pages 1–32 in Edenhofer, O, Pichs-Madruga, R, Sokona, Y, Farahani, E, Kadner, S, Seyboth, K, Adler, A, Baum, I, Brunner, S, Eickemeier, P, Kriemann, B, Savolainen, J, Schlömer, S, von Stechow, C, Zwickel, T, and Minx, JC, eds. Climate Change 2014, Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press Google Scholar
Keane, RM, Crawley, MJ (2002) Exotic plant invasions and the enemy release hypothesis. Trends Ecol Evol 17:164–170 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Köppen, WP (1936) Das Geographische System der Klimate [The geographical system of the climate]. Pages 1–44 in Köppen W, Geiger GC, eds. Handbuch der Klimatologie. Berlin: Gebrüder BornträgerGoogle Scholar
Kriticos, DJ, Ireland, KB, Morin, L, Kumaran, N, Rafter, MA, Ota, N, Raghu, S (2021) Integrating ecoclimatic niche modelling methods into classical biological control programmes. Biol Control 160:104667 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kriticos, DJ, Jarošik, V, Ota, N (2014) Extending the suite of Bioclim variables: a proposed registry system and case study using principal components analysis. Methods Ecol Evol 5:956–960 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kriticos, DJ, Kean, JM, Phillips, CB, Senay, SD, Acosta, H, Haye, T (2017) The potential global distribution of the brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys, a critical threat to plant biosecurity. J Pest Sci 90:1033–1043 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kriticos, DJ, Leriche, A, Palmer, D, Cook, DC, Brockerhoff, EG, Stephens, AEA, Watt, MS (2013) Linking climate suitability, spread rates and host-impact when estimating the potential costs of invasive pests. PLoS ONE 8:e54861 CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Kriticos, DJ, Maywald, GF, Yonow, T, Zurcher, EJ, Herrmann, NI, Sutherst, RW (2015) CLIMEX Version 4: Exploring the Effects of Climate on Plants, Animals and Diseases. Canberra, Australia: CSIRO. 168 pGoogle Scholar
Kriticos, DJ, Randall, RP (2001) A comparison of systems to analyse potential weed distributions. Pages 61–79 in Groves RH, Panetta FD, Virtue JG, eds. Weed Risk Assessment. Melbourne: CSIROGoogle Scholar
Kriticos, DJ, Webber, BL, Leriche, A, Ota, N, Bathols, J, Macadam, I, Scott, JK (2012) CliMond: global high resolution historical and future scenario climate surfaces for bioclimatic modelling. Methods Ecol Evol 3:53–64 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lowe, S, Browne, M, Boudjelas, S, De Poorter, M (2000) 100 of the World’s Worst Invasive Alien Species: A Selection from the Global Invasive Species Database. Auckland: Invasive Species Specialist Group. 12 p Google Scholar
Muoghalu, J (2008) Growth, reproduction and resource allocation of Tithonia diversifolia and Tithonia rotundifolia . Weed Res 48:157–162 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Muoghalu, J, Chuba, D (2005) Seed germination and reproductive strategies of Tithonia diversifolia (Hemsl.) Gray and Tithonia rotundifolia (PM) Blake. Appl Ecol Environ Res 3:39–46 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
NSW Department of Primary Industries (n.d.) Japanese Sunflower (Tithonia diversifolia). https://weeds.dpi.nsw.gov.au/Weeds/JapaneseSunflower. Accessed: June 12, 2021Google Scholar
Obiakara, MC, Fourcade, Y (2018) Climatic niche and potential distribution of Tithonia diversifolia (Hemsl.) A. Gray in Africa. PLoS ONE 13:e0202421 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Orwa, C, Mutua, A, Kindt, R, Jamnadass, R, Anthony, S (2009) Agroforestree Database: A Tree Reference and Selection Guide. Version 4.0. Kenya: World Agroforestry Centre. 15 pGoogle Scholar
Rahmstorf, S, Cazenave, A, Church, JA, Hansen, JE, Keeling, RF, Parker, DE, Somerville, RCJ (2007) Recent climate observations compared to projections. Science 316:709 CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Sheldon, J, Burrows, F (1973) The dispersal effectiveness of the achene–pappus units of selected Compositae in steady winds with convection. New Phytol 72:665–675 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shelford, VE (1918) A comparison of the responses of animals in gradients of environmental factors with particular reference to the method of reaction of representatives of the various groups from protozoa to mammals. Science 48:225–230 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shelford, VE (1963) The Ecology of North America. Urbana: University of Illinois Press. 610 p Google Scholar
Siebert, S, Henrich, V, Frenken, K, Burke, J (2013) Update of the Digital Global Map of Irrigation Areas to Version 5. Bonn, Germany: Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität; Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. 171 pGoogle Scholar
Simelane, DO, Mawela, KV, Fourie, A (2011) Prospective agents for the biological control of Tithonia rotundifolia (Mill.) SF Blake and Tithonia diversifolia (Hemsl.) A. Gray (Asteraceae) in South Africa. African Entomol 19:443–450CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Soberon, J, Nakamura, M (2009) Niches and distributional areas: concepts, methods, and assumptions. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106:19644–19650 CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
State of Queensland (2020) Japanese Sunflower, Tithonia diversifolia. https://www.daf.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/62682/japanese-sunflower.pdf. Accessed: June 12, 2021Google Scholar
Sutherst, RW (2014) Pest species distribution modelling: origins and lessons from history. Biol Invasions 16:239–256 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sutherst, RW, Baker, RHA, Coakley, SM, Harrington, R, Kriticos, DJ, Scherm, H (2007) Pests under global change—meeting your future landlords? Pages 211–223 in Canadell JG, Pataki DE, Pitelka LF, eds. Terrestrial Ecosystems in a Changing World. Berlin: SpringerCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sutherst, RW, Bourne, AS (2009) Modelling non-equilibrium distributions of invasive species: a tale of two modelling paradigms. Biol Invasions 11:1231–1237 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sutherst, RW, Maywald, GF (1985) A computerised system for matching climates in ecology. Agric Ecosyst Environ 13:281–299 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tongma, S, Kobayashi, K, Usui, K (1998) Allelopathic activity of Mexican sunflower (Tithonia diversifolia) in soil. Weed Sci 46:432–437 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van der Ploeg, RR, Böhm, W, Kirkham, MB (1999) On the origin of the theory of mineral nutrition of plants and the law of the minimum. Soil Sci Soc Am J 63:1055–1062 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van Vuuren, DP, Edmonds, J, Kainuma, M, Riahi, K, Thomson, A, Hibbard, K, Hurtt, GC, Kram, T, Krey, V, Lamarque, J-F, Masui, T, Meinshausen, M, Nakicenovic, N, Smith, SJ, Rose, SK (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Change 109:5–31 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vilà, M, Espinar, JL, Hejda, M, Hulme, PE, Jarošík, V, Maron, JL, Pergl, J, Schaffner, U, Sun, Y, Pyšek, P (2011) Ecological impacts of invasive alien plants: a meta-analysis of their effects on species, communities and ecosystems. Ecol Lett 14:702–708 CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Virtue, JG, Bennett, S, Randall, RP (2004) Plant introductions in Australia: how can we resolve “weedy” conflicts of interest? Pages 42–48 in Sindel BM, Johnson SB, eds. Proceedings of the 14th Australian Weeds Conference. Australasian Weed Science SocietyGoogle Scholar
Webber, BL, Yates, CJ, Le Maitre, DC, Scott, JK, Kriticos, DJ, Ota, N, McNeill, A, Le Roux, JJ, Midgley, GF (2011) Modelling horses for novel climate courses: insights from projecting potential distributions of native and alien Australian acacias with correlative and mechanistic models. Divers Distrib 17:978–1000 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Woodward, FI (1987) Climate and Plant Distribution. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 174 p Google Scholar
Yang, J, Tang, L, Guan, Y-L, Sun, W-B (2012) Genetic diversity of an alien invasive plant Mexican sunflower (Tithonia diversifolia) in China. Weed Sci 60:552–557 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yonow, T, Ramirez-Villegas, J, Abadie, C, Darnell, RE, Ota, N, Kriticos, DJ (2019) Black Sigatoka in bananas: ecoclimatic suitability and disease pressure assessments. PLoS ONE 14:0220601 CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed