With the fast speed of aging, burden from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is increasing in China, and will continue to increase to 2020 and beyond. This study aims to estimate the potential gains in health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) after hypothetical elimination of four NCDs among Chinese elderly from 1990 to 2016, including cardiovascular diseases (CVD), cancers, chronic respiratory diseases (CRD) and diabetes mellitus (DM).

Based on data from Global Burden of Disease 2016, we generated life table by gender using Sullivan method to calculate HALE. Disease-deleted method was used to calculate cause-elimination HALE, after hypothetical elimination of specific diseases. This method could combine the impact of mortality and morbidity, which are particularly useful for estimating the impact of the disease and setting priorities for health planning to get ready for the new challenges in upcoming decade.

From 1990 to 2016, HALE increased for all age groups. After hypothetically eliminating the four main NCDs, potential gain in HALE by CVD, DM and cancers increased, while CRD decreased from 1990 to 2016 for both genders. Among four main NCDs, potential gain in HALE after eliminating CVD was largest and increased most for both genders. Although elimination of DM led to the smallest gain in HALE, the increasing speed of gain in HALE by DM was faster than that by CVD and cancers from 1990 to 2016.

This study highlights the potential gains in HALE of NCDs among Chinese elderly from 1990 to 2016. HALE of Chinese elderly could further increase from the reduction of NCDs. Control measures and targeted prevention should be carried out to get ready for the new decade.