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‘Taken at the Flood’? The German General Election 2002

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 March 2014

Geoffrey K. Roberts
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Abstract

The outcome of one of the closest elections in the German Federal Republic's history partly resulted from the serious flooding which occurred a few weeks before polling day, allowing the government to display its concern in eastern Germany. There the SPD won votes, at the expense of the PDS, which returned to the Bundestag with only two representatives. The Christian Democrats did well in Bavaria. The small increase in votes for the liberal FDP and the large increase in support for the Greens meant that the incumbent coalition could continue, with a reduced majority. Significant economic problems will challenge the new government.

Type
Articles
Information
Government and Opposition , Volume 38 , Issue 1 , 2003 , pp. 53 - 72
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s) 2003.

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References

1 In one survey, satisfaction of respondents with the chancellor rose from 51 per cent in August to 62 per cent in September, and satisfaction with the coalition from 32 per cent in August to 40 per cent in September, no doubt because of the flood catastrophe. (Der Spiegel, 16 September 2002, pp. 22–3, citing NFO-Infratest survey data).

2 Seats additional to the ‘standard’ 598, which arise when a party wins more constituency seats in a Land than it is entitled to receive according to its share of list votes in that Land (see: Roberts, Geoffrey K., ‘By Decree or by Design? The Surplus Seats Problem in the German Electoral System: Causes and Remedies’, Representation, 37:3/4 (2000), pp. 195–202)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

3 Hamburg had experienced a similar success of a ‘flash party’ in the 1993 Land election. The ‘STATT’ party (the word in German means ‘instead of’) obtained 5.6 per cent and 8 seats in that election, but was unable either to win seats outside Hamburg or repeat that success in the 1997 election.

4 Data from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen: series ‘Politische Stimmung’ (http://www.wahlrecht.info/politbar.htm).

5 For example 90 per cent of respondents mentioned unemployment as one of the most important issues in the Saxony-Anhalt election campaign in April 2002 ( Wahlen, Forschungsgruppe, Landtagswahl in Sachsen-Anhalt am 21.04.2002, Mannheim, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 2002, p. 30 Google Scholar), and in the Land election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern on the same day as the Bundestag election, 92 per cent mentioned it as one of the most important issues ( Wahlen, Forschungsgruppe, Wahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Eine Analyse der Landtagswahl am 22.09.2002, Mannheim, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 2002, p. 23 Google Scholar). It should be noted that estimates of the true rate of unemployment (rather than the official statistics covering those registered as available for employment) suggest that the potential labour force without employment is much higher than 4 million.

6 The Times, 22 November 2002.

7 Wahlen, Forschungsgruppe, Wahl in Berlin. Eine Analyse der Wahl zum Abgeordnetenhaus vom 21 Oktober 2001, Mannheim, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 2001, p. 34 Google Scholar.

8 The author wishes to express his gratitude to the German Academic Exchange Service, the Association for the Study of German Politics and the German political parties for facilities provided on a study visit to Berlin in mid-September 2002.

9 ‘Kampa 02’ supplement, in Vorwärts, 6, June 2002. Among other plans, Schröder was scheduled to speak at about 40 election rallies, and the party planned 100 ‘citizen forums’ to discuss the SPD manifesto with the public (p. 2).

10 Durr, Tobias, ‘Die Linke nach dem Sog der Mitte’, Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte (Beilage: Das Parlament), 21 (2002), pp. 5–6 Google Scholar.

11 In surveys, Fischer was almost always chosen as the most popular German politician. For example, in Der Spiegel, 16 September 2002, pp. 22–3, he received support from 81 per cent of respondents; Schröder was second with 73 per cent and Merkel third with only 63 per cent. Stoiber and Westerwelle, leaders of the CSU (Christian Social Union) and FDP, were 9th with 50 per cent support.

12 Beerfeltz, Hans-Jürgen, ‘Die 18 und der Charakter der FDP’, Liberal, 44:3, (09 2002), p. 7 Google Scholar.

13 Knight, Martin, ‘Nach der Qual…’, Die Zeit, 26 09 2002 Google Scholar.

14 The data on electoral behaviour is drawn principally from Wahlen, Forschungsgruppe, Bundestagswahl. Eine Analyse der Wahl vom 22 September 2002, Mannheim, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 2002, esp. pp. 12–66 Google Scholar.

15 Including the Land of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where elections for the Land parliament took place simultaneously with the Bundestag election. The SPD (40.6 per cent, a gain of 6.3 per cent) took votes from the PDS, and was able to continue with the PDS in coalition in that Land.

16 Wahlen, Forschungsgruppe, Bundestagswahl. Eine Analyse der Wahl vom 22 September 2002, Mannheim, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 2002, p. 98 Google Scholar. Of course, many Green list voters who chose SPD constituency candidates identified with the Green Party but tried to avoid wasting their constituency vote, and the same would surely apply to FDP list voters choosing a constituency candidate from one of the two large parties.

17 The Bundesrat is composed of Land government delegations, each Land having between 3 and 6 votes, depending on population. Votes must be cast as a bloc. The Bundesrat can delay all legislation, but can veto bills shown to affect the rights and responsibilities of the Länder (an increasing proportion of all bills). To accommodate coalition governments in the Länder, including sometimes ‘grand’ coalitions of the CDU and SPD, coalition negotiations usually result in decisions about how a Land government will vote on Bundesrat matters — or abstain, if no inter-party agreement is reached.

18 ‘Nach Schröders Wahlkampf’, Neue Zürcher Zeitung, 9/10 11 2002, p. 1 (author's translation).Google Scholar

19 Thiel, Stefan and Meyer, Michael, ‘The German Problem’, Newsweek, 30 09 2002, pp. 34–9Google Scholar.

20 The Times, 14 November 2002. The advisory panel, sometimes called the ‘five wise men’ (Sachverständigenrat), consists of the heads of five of the leading economic research institutes in Germany. Under a law of 1963, they are required to produce an annual report on the state of the German economy, with reference to issues such as employment, inflation and the condition of international trade. The members are formally appointed by the federal president.

21 Die Welt, 8 November 2002.

22 A survey found that 65 per cent of respondents rejected participation of German armed forces in an attack on Iraq even if such an attack were sanctioned by a UN mandate. Only 33 per cent supported such participation. (Der Spiegel, 16 September 2002, pp. 22–3, citing NFO-Infratest survey data).

23 Another damaging statement during the campaign was apparently made by Schröder's then Minister of Justice, Herta Däubler-Gmelin, who, reporters alleged, compared the methods of President Bush with those of Hitler. Despite protestations of erroneous reporting by the minister, Schröder sought to distance himself from her statement and, in the reconstruction of his cabinet after the election, Däubler-Gmelin was replaced as minister.