Hostname: page-component-7bb8b95d7b-s9k8s Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-10-04T05:34:42.073Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Does the Iron Curtain Still Exist? The Convergence in Electoral Volatility between Eastern and Western Europe

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 September 2018

Vincenzo Emanuele*
Affiliation:
Vincenzo Emanuele, Department of Political Sciences, LUISS Guido Carli, Rome, Italy
Alessandro Chiaramonte
Affiliation:
Alessandro Chiaramonte, Department of Political and Social Sciences, University of Florence, Italy
Sorina Soare
Affiliation:
Sorina Soare, Department of Political and Social Sciences, University of Florence, Italy
*
*Corresponding author. Email: vemanuele@luiss.it

Abstract

The literature on party system change and electoral volatility in post-communist Europe tends to make a clear-cut distinction between Central and Eastern European (CEE) party systems and Western European (WE) ones. The former are unstable and unpredictable and electoral volatility is driven by the continuous emergence of new political parties. Conversely, electoral stability is the rule in the latter, and volatility is associated with electoral shifts among established parties. This conventional wisdom suffers from three potential sources of bias: case selection, time coverage and method. By correcting these biases, this article investigates whether the traditional division between CEE and WE party systems has been levelled as regards volatility. To do so, it presents evidence based on an original data set of electoral volatility and its internal components covering 31 WE and CEE party systems since 1990. It finds that a process of asymmetric convergence in the levels of electoral volatility is taking place between the two regions, with Western Europe approaching Central and Eastern Europe with increasing electoral instability.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © The Authors 2018. Published by Government and Opposition Limited and Cambridge University Press

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Agh, A (1998) The End of the Beginning: The Partial Consolidation of East Central European Parties and Party Systems. In Pennings P and Lane J-E (eds), Comparing Party System Change. London: Routledge, pp. 186199.Google Scholar
Alesina, A, Devleeschauwer, A, Easterly, W, Kurlat, S and Wacziarg, R (2003) Fractionalization. Journal of Economic Growth 8, 155194.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bågenholm, A and Heinö, AJ (2013) Why Are the Post-communist Party Systems not Stabilizing? Paper prepared for the ECPR Joint Sessions, Mainz, 12–16 March.Google Scholar
Bakke, E and Sitter, N (2005) Patterns of Stability: Party Competition and Strategy in Central Europe since 1989. Party Politics 11, 243263.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bartolini, S and Mair, P (1990) Identity, Competition, and Electoral Availability: The Stabilisation of European Electorates 1885–1985. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Beck, N (2001) Time-Series Cross-Section Data: What Have we Learned in the Past Few Years? Annual Review of Political Science 4, 271293.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beck, N and Katz, JN (2004) Time-Series–Cross-Section Issues: Dynamics. Draft paper, July 2004, www.researchgate.net/publication/228723029_Time-Series-Cross-Section_Issues_Dynamics_2004.Google Scholar
Beck, N and Katz, JN (2007) Random Coefficient Models for Time-Series–Cross-Section Data: Monte Carlo Experiments. Political Analysis 15, 182195.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berglund, S and Ekman, J (2013) The Diversity of Political Regimes. In Berglund S, Ekman J and Deegan-Krause K (eds), Handbook of Political Change in Eastern Europe. Northampton MA: Edward Elgar, pp. 114.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bielasiak, J (2002) The Institutionalization of Electoral and Party Systems in Postcommunist States. Comparative Politics 34, 189210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Birch, S (2003) Electoral Systems and Political Transformation in Post-Communist Europe. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bormann, N-C and Golder, M (2013) Democratic Electoral Systems Around the World 1946–2011. Electoral Studies 32, 360369. Replication materials at http://mattgolder.com/elections.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Casal Bértoa, F (2013) Post-Communist Politics: On the Divergence (and/or Convergence) of East and West. Government and Opposition: An International Journal of Comparative Politics 48(3), 398433.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Casal Bértoa, F (2014) Party Systems and Cleavage Structures Revisited: A Sociological Explanation of Party System Institutionalization in East Central Europe. Party Politics 20(1), 1636.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Casal Bértoa, F (2017) Political Parties or Party Systems? Assessing the ‘Myth’ of Institutionalisation and Democracy. West European Politics 40(2), 402429.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Casal Bértoa, F and Mair, P (2012) Party System Institutionalization Across Time: Post-Communist Europe in Comparative Perspective. In Müller-Rommel F and Keman H (eds), Party Government in the New Europe. London: Routledge, pp. 85-112.Google Scholar
Casal Bértoa, F, Deegan-Krause, K and Haughton, T (2015) Splitting the Difference: Measuring Institutional and Electoral Volatility. Paper presented at the Workshop on Party System Stability and Electoral Volatility: its Measurement and Implications, Nottingham, 26–27 February.Google Scholar
Casal Bértoa, F, Deegan-Krause, K and Haughton, T (2017) The Volatility of Volatility: Measuring Change in Party Vote Shares. Electoral Studies 50, 142156.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chiaramonte, A and Emanuele, V (2017) Party System Volatility, Regeneration and De-Institutionalization in Western Europe (1945–2015). Party Politics 23(4), 376388.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chiaramonte, A and Emanuele, V (2018) Towards Turbulent Times: Measuring and Explaining Party System (De-)Institutionalization in Western Europe (1945–2015). Italian Political Science Review, published early online January, https://doi.org/10.1017/ipo.2017.27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Conference Board (2017) Total Economy Database, www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase.Google Scholar
Crabtree, C and Golder, M (2016) Party System Volatility in Post-Communist Europe. British Journal of Political Science 47(1), 229234.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dalton, RJ, Flanagan, SC and Beck, PA (1984) Electoral Change in Advanced Industrial Democracies: Realignment or Dealignment? Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Dassonneville, R and Hooghe, M (2011) Mapping Electoral Volatility in Europe. An Analysis of Trends in Electoral Volatility in European Democracies since 1945. Paper presented at the 1st European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research, Sofia, 1–3 December.Google Scholar
Dassonneville, R and Hooghe, M (2017) Economic Indicators and Electoral Volatility: Economic Effects on Electoral Volatility in Western Europe 1950–2013. Comparative European Politics 15(6), 219243.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Deegan-Krause, K (2013) Full and Partial Cleavages. In Berglund S, Ekman J and Deegan-Krause K (eds), Handbook of Political Change in Eastern Europe. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, pp. 3550.Google Scholar
Drukker, DM (2003) Testing for Serial Correlation in Linear Panel-Data Models. Stata Journal 3, 168177.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Emanuele, V (2015) Dataset of Electoral Volatility and its Internal Components in Western Europe (1945–2015). CISE, http://dx.doi.org/10.7802/1112.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Emanuele, V and Chiaramonte, A (2016) A Growing Impact of New Parties: Myth or Reality? Party System Innovation in Western Europe after 1945. Party Politics, published early online November, http://doi.org/10.1177/1354068816678887.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Enyedi, Z (2005) The Role of Agency in Cleavage Formation. European Journal of Political Research 44(5), 697720.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Enyedi, Z (2006) Party Politics in Post-Communist Transition. In Crotty W and Katz RS (eds), Handbook of Party Politics. London: Sage, pp. 228238.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Enyedi, Z and Casal Bértoa, F (2018) Institutionalization and De-Institutionalization in Post-Communist Party Systems. East European Politics and Societies: and Cultures, published early online April, http://doi.org/10.1177/0888325417736808.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Epperly, B (2011) Institutions and Legacies: Electoral Volatility in the Post-Communist World. Comparative Political Studies 44, 829853.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Evans, G and Whitefield, S (1998) The Structuring of Political Cleavages in Post-Communist Societies: The Case of the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Political Studies 46(1), 115139.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Franklin, MN, Mackie, TT and Valen, H (eds) (1992) Electoral Change; Responses to Evolving Social and Attitudinal Structures in Western Countries. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Freedom House (2017) Country and Territory Ratings and Statuses, 1972–2016, https://freedomhouse.org/report-types/freedom-world.Google Scholar
Hanley, S and Sikk, A (2016) Economy, Corruption or Floating Voters? Explaining the Breakthroughs of Anti-Establishment Reform Parties in Eastern Europe. Party Politics 22(4), 522533.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haughton, T and Deegan-Krause, K (2015) Hurricane Season: Systems of Instability in Central and East European Party Politics. East European Politics and Societies and Cultures 29, 6180.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hernández, E and Kriesi, H (2016) The Electoral Consequences of the Financial and Economic Crisis in Europe. European Journal of Political Research 55, 203224.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnson, JW and Wallack, JS (2012) Electoral Systems and the Personal Vote, https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=hdl:1902.1/17901.Google Scholar
Hloušek, V and Kopeček, L (2010) Origin, Ideology and Transformation of Political Parties: East-Central and Western Europe Compared. Burlington, VT: Ashgate.Google Scholar
Kitschelt, H, Mansfeldová, Z, Markowski, R and Tóka, G (1999) Post-Communist Party Systems: Competition, Representation, and Inter-Party Cooperation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laakso, M and Taagepera, R (1979) The Effective Number of Parties: A Measure with Application to West Europe. Comparative Political Studies 12, 327.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lane, J-E and Ersson, S (2007) Party System Instability in Europe: Persistent Differences in Volatility between West and East? Democratization 14, 92110.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lawson, K, Römmele, A and Karasimeonov, G (1999) Cleavages, Parties, and Voters: Studies from Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Romania. Westport, CT: Praeger.Google Scholar
Lewis, PG (2006) Party Systems in Post-Communist Central Europe: Patterns of Stability and Consolidation. Democratization 13, 562583.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lipset, SM and Rokkan, S (1967) Cleavage Structures, Party Systems and Voter Alignments: An Introduction. In Lipset SM and Rokkan S (eds),Party Systems and Voter Alignments: Cross-National Perspectives. New York: Free Press, pp. 164.Google Scholar
Mainwaring, S (2016) Party System Institutionalization, Party Collapse and Party Building. Government and Opposition: An International Journal of Comparative Politics 51(4), 691716.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mainwaring, S and Scully, TR (1995) Building Democratic Institutions: Party Systems in Latin America. Stanford: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Mainwaring, S and Zoco, E (2007) Political Sequences and the Stabilization of Inter-Party Competition. Party Politics 13(2), 155178.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mainwaring, S, Gervasoni, C and España-Najera, A (2016) Extra- and Within-System Electoral Volatility. Party Politics, published early online January, http://doi.org/10.1177/1354068815625229.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mair, P (1997) Party System Change: Approaches and Interpretations. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Mair, P (2013) Ruling the Void: The Hollowing of Western Democracy. London: Verso.Google Scholar
McAllister, I and White, S (2007) Political Parties and Democratic Consolidation in Post-Communist Societies. Party Politics 13(2), 197216.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pedersen, MN (1979) The Dynamics of European Party Systems: Changing Patterns of Electoral Volatility. European Journal of Political Research 7, 126.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pop-Elecheş, G (2010) Throwing Out the Bums: Protest Voting and Anti-Establishment Parties after Communism. World Politics 62(2), 221260.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powell, EN and Tucker, JA (2014) Revisiting Electoral Volatility in Post-Communist Countries: New Data, New Results and New Approaches. British Journal of Political Science 44, 123147.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pridham, G and Lewis, PG (eds) (1996) Stabilising Fragile Democracies: Comparing New Party Systems in Southern and Eastern Europe. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
Roberts, KM and Wibbels, E (1999) Party Systems and Electoral Volatility in Latin America: A Test of Economic, Institutional, and Structural Explanations. American Political Science Review 93, 575590.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rohrschneider, R and Whitefield, S (2009) Understanding Cleavages in Party Systems Issue Position and Issue Salience in 13 Post-Communist Democracies. Comparative Political Studies 42(2), 280313.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rose, R and Munro, N (2009) Elections and Parties in New European Democracies. Colchester: ECPR Press.Google Scholar
Sikk, A (2005) How Unstable? Volatility and the Genuinely New Parties in Eastern Europe. European Journal of Political Research 44, 391412.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sitter, N (2002) Cleavages, Party Strategy and Party System Change in Europe, East and West. Perspectives on European Politics and Society 3, 425451.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stimson, JA (1985) Regression in Time and Space: A Statistical Essay. American Journal of Political Science 29, 914947.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tavits, M (2005) The Development of Stable Party Support: Electoral Dynamics in Post-Communist Europe. American Journal of Political Science 49, 283298.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tavits, M (2008) On the Linkage between Electoral Volatility and Party System Instability in Central and Eastern Europe. European Journal of Political Research 47, 537555.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tòka, G (1997) Political Parties and Democratic Consolidation in East Central Europe. Studies in Public Policy No. 279. Strathclyde: Centre for the Study of Public Policy, University of Strathclyde.Google Scholar
Visser, J (2016) ICTWSS Database, Version 5.1. Amsterdam: Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Labour Studies (AIAS), University of Amsterdam. September 2016, www.uva-aias.net/en/ictwss.Google Scholar
Van Biezen, I (2003) Political Parties in New Democracies: Party Organization in Southern and East-Central Europe. London: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Whitefield, S (2002) Political Cleavages and Post-Communist Politics. Annual Reviews of Political Science 5, 181200.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Emanuele et al. supplementary material

Emanuele et al. supplementary material 1

Download Emanuele et al. supplementary material(File)
File 62.5 KB