A mathematical model of the dynamics of measles in New Zealand was developed in 1996. The model successfully predicted an epidemic in 1997 and was instrumental in the decision to carry out an intensive MMR (measles–mumps–rubella) immunization campaign in that year. While the epidemic began some months earlier than anticipated, it was rapidly brought under control, and its impact on the population was much reduced. In order to prevent the occurrence of further epidemics in New Zealand, an extended version of the model has since been developed and applied to the critical question of the optimal timing of MMR immunization.

The prevalence of antibodies to hepatitis A virus was assessed in a Dutch nationwide sample (n = 7367). A questionnaire was used to study the association with various sociodemographic characteristics. Overall, 33·8% (95% CI 31·6–36%) of the population had hepatitis A antibodies. The seroprevalence was less than 10% in people under 35; it increased from 25% at 35 years to 85% at 79 years. For those 15–49 years of age, Turks (90·9%) and Moroccans (95·8%) had greater seroprevalence than autochthonous Dutch (20·2%) and other Western people (25%). Low or middle socio-economic status, as indicated by the highest educational level achieved, was associated with greater seroprevalence, independently of age and reported immunization (OR 2·11 and 1·45; 95% CI 1·67–2·67 and 1·11–1·89, respectively). These data suggest autochthonous Dutch and other Westerners born after World War II were exposed to hepatitis A during childhood less frequently than older birth cohorts. Thus, more susceptibility is likely in the coming decades. Since this means a greater risk of outbreaks in future years, and since morbidity and mortality are more frequent in older persons, studying the cost effectiveness of selective and general vaccination might be worthwhile.

We conducted a community-based cluster sample survey of rubella sero-epidemiology in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia in 1994. Among 4666 individuals for whom complete data were available, rubella antibody prevalence was 91% (95% confidence interval: 90, 92). On multivariable analysis, seroprevalence was lower among individuals who were resident in Addis Ababa for 1 year or less. Approx. 50% seroprevalence was attained by age 4 years, and the estimated average age at infection was 5·2 years. The highest age-specific force of infection was estimated to occur in 5- to 9-year-olds. The early age at infection corresponded with a low estimated incidence of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) of 0·3 per 1000 live births, equivalent to nine cases of CRS in 1994. The predicted critical level of immunity for elimination of rubella via vaccination was 85–91%, requiring 89–96% coverage with a vaccine of 95% effectiveness. Unless very high coverage of rubella vaccine could be guaranteed, the introduction of childhood vaccination could increase the incidence of CRS in Addis Ababa.

Restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis of the amplified P1 gene was used to type 153 strains of Mycoplasma pneumoniae isolated in France between 1977 and 1994, and in Denmark between 1962 and 1994, and an additional group of 28 strains isolated from Belgium and Germany between 1990 and 1993. Random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) analysis was tested on French, Belgian and German strains. Both methods separated the strains into two groups corresponding to the two reference strains M129 (group I) and FH (group II), and gave concordant results. When 75 selected strains of different geographical origin were analysed by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), strains of group II fell into two closely related subgroups, subgroup IIa corresponding to the reference strain FH, and subgroup IIb. Most of the strains isolated in Denmark in the period 1962–86 belonged to group I. Almost all strains isolated in France and Denmark between 1987 and 1988 were from group II, the two subgroups being present. In 1991–3, almost all strains from France as well as Denmark, Germany and Belgium belonged to group I.

Epidemiological and clinical findings from 1162 serologically confirmed measles cases occurring in Buenos Aires, Argentina in 1997 and 1998 were retrospectively reviewed. From 90 hospitalized children, measles virus was detected by direct RT–PCR from nasopharyngeal secretions. Patients were grouped as follows: (i) not vaccinated: infants < 12 months; (ii) regularly vaccinated: children 1–4 years not covered by the last catch-up; (iii) catch-up vaccinated: patients 5–19 years immunized during the 1993 campaign. Most cases were recorded in non-vaccinated infants (54%), and the lowest in catch-up vaccinated children (16%). Mean age of the 90 hospitalized children was 11·3 months. Pneumonia was the major hospitalization cause followed by pneumonitis. Two children required intensive care and one died. The 1993 catch-up campaign seemed to reduce the number of cases in the 5- to 19-year-old group. Lack of timely follow-up probably led to the accumulation of susceptible individuals allowing measles re-emergence. Direct viral detection by RT–PCR proved to be a sensitive tool for molecular epidemiology surveillance.

Beginning in January 1997, American immunization policy allowed parents and physicians to elect one of three approved infant vaccination strategies for preventing poliomyelitis. Although the three strategies likely have different outcomes with respect to prevention of paralytic poliomyelitis, the extreme rarity of the disease in the USA prevents any controlled comparison. In this paper, a formal inferential logic, originally described by Donald Rubin, is applied to the vaccination problem. Assumptions and indirect evidence are used to overcome the inability to observe the same subjects under varying conditions to allow the inference of causality from non-randomized observations. Using available epidemiologic information and explicit assumptions, it is possible to project the risk of paralytic polio for infants immunized with oral polio vaccine (1·3 cases per million vaccinees), inactivated polio vaccine (0·54 cases per million vaccinees), or a sequential schedule (0·54–0·92 cases per million vaccinees).

Vaccine escape variants of hepatitis B virus (HBV) have been identified world-wide. A mathematical model of HBV transmission is used to investigate the potential pattern of emergence of such variants. Attention is focused on The Gambia as a country with high quality epidemiological data, universal infant immunization and in which escape mutants after childhood infections have been observed. We predict that a variant cannot become dominant for at least 20 years from the start of vaccination, even when using a vaccine which affords no cross protection. The dominant factor responsible for this long time scale is the low rate of infectious contacts between infected and susceptible individuals (we estimate the basic reproduction number of hepatitis B in The Gambia to be 1·7). A variant strain that achieves high prevalence will also take many years to control, and it is questionable whether emergence will be identifiable by sero-surveillance until of high prevalence. The sensitivity of the model predictions to epidemiological and demographic factors is explored.

An outbreak of gastroenteritis followed a meal in a large hotel during which one of the diners vomited. The clinical features of the illness suggested Norwalk-like virus (NLV, small round structured virus) infection, and this was confirmed by electron microscopy and reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT–PCR) of stool samples. Further characterization of the virus by nucleotide sequence analysis of the PCR amplicons revealed identical strains in all the affected individuals. The foods served at the meal could not be demonstrated to be the cause of the outbreak. Analysis of attack rates by dining table showed an inverse relationship with the distance from the person who vomited. No one eating in a separate restaurant reported illness. Transmission from person-to-person or direct contamination of food seems unlikely in this outbreak. However, the findings are consistent with airborne spread of NLV with infection by inhalation with subsequent ingestion of virus particles.

An outbreak of hepatitis A occurred in a religious community in Indiana, USA. Sixty-nine cases were ascertained among the 4466 residents over a year, and the highest attack rate was in children. The management of the outbreak included the widespread use of prophylactic immune serum globulin (ISG). Despite this, further cases occurred. To guide further ISG administration, a survey was undertaken to ascertain what proportion remained susceptible to HAV infection. From a random sample of 600 people in the affected community 440 saliva specimens (73%) were obtained. Of these, 12·5% were found to be immune (95% confidence intervals from 9–16%). No changes were made to the ISG administration policy. There was no evidence to suggest that administration of ISG had any effect on the duration of the outbreak. There was a low rate of symptomatic infection among young children (less than 10 years); as ISG does not prevent the spread of the virus its use is not recommended in future outbreak situations.

We examined clinical and epidemiological features of 575 laboratory-confirmed cases of vibrio gastroenteritis in Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, and Texas from 1988 to 1997 (the US Gulf of Mexico Regional Vibrio Surveillance System). Illnesses occurred year round, with peaks in spring and autumn. Illnesses lasted a median of 7 days and included fever in half of patients and bloody stools in 25% of patients with relevant information. Seventy-two percent of patients reported no underlying illnesses. In the week before onset, 236 (53%) of 445 patients for whom data were available ate raw oysters, generally at a restaurant or bar. Educational efforts should address the risk of vibrio gastroenteritis for raw oyster consumers, including healthy individuals. Further studies should examine environmental conditions affecting vibrio counts on seafood and processing technologies to enhance the safety of raw oysters.

Between 22 January and 4 April 1997, 467 hepatitis A cases were reported to the New South Wales Health Department, Australia. To identify the cause of the outbreak, we conducted a matched case-control study, and an environmental investigation. Among 66 cases and 66 postcode-matched controls, there was a strong association between illness and consumption of oysters (adjusted odds ratio 42; 95% confidence interval 5–379). More than two-thirds of cases reported eating oysters, including one third of cases and no controls who reported eating oysters in the Wallis Lake area. A public warning was issued on 14 February, and Wallis Lake oysters were withdrawn from sale. Hepatitis A virus was subsequently identified in oyster samples taken from the lake. Hepatitis A virus poses a special risk to consumers who eat raw oysters because it can survive for long periods in estuaries and cause severe disease.

Samples of blood, spleen and legs from 112 culled roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) were collected from nine sites widespread in the United Kingdom. The prevalence of infection with Ehrlichia phagocytophila was determined by serology and polymerase chain reaction. Means of 58% of 102 plasma or serum samples were seroreactive by IFA, 38% of 84 blood samples and 29% of 82 spleen samples were positive by PCR. Ticks on legs of 71 roe deer were Ixodes ricinus larvae, nymphs and adults and 83% of legs were infested. Numbers of ticks corresponded positively to the percentage of samples positive for E. phagocytophila by serology and PCR for different sampling sites. Ixodes ricinus nymphs collected from the vegetation at one site with infected deer were analysed for infection with E. phagocytophila by examination of Feulgen stained salivary glands. Of 135 nymphs 5% were infected. These results confirm that roe deer are commonly parasitized by both E. phagocytophila and its vector tick in such a way that it is likely to be an important natural mammalian reservoir of E. phagocytophila.

A total of 15662 clinical samples were analysed for enterovirus (EV) isolation in cell cultures during a 10-year period (1988–97). Furthermore, 210 isolates of EV obtained in primary laboratories within Spain from patients with meningitis were characterized. The total number of EV typed was 758, including 727 non-polio EV and 31 Sabin-like (SL) polioviruses. Twenty-eight EV serotypes were represented. Echoviruses comprised 90% (653/727) of fully typed non-polio EV. The four most prevalent serotypes were echovirus 30, echovirus 9, echovirus 6 and echovirus 4. Echovirus 30 was the main serotype associated with meningitis. Echovirus 9 was the aetiological agent in 20 outbreaks of meningitis while the occurrence of echovirus 6 was localized in 1 year (1997). Coxsackieviruses A and B occurred in 3 and 7% of the non-polio EV respectively. Coxsackievirus B5 presented the relative greater abundance. This paper examines the epidemiology of EV in Spain to serotype level over a 10-year period with special attention to non-polio EV associated with meningitis.

Since the introduction of routine measles, mumps and rubella immunization for children in England and Wales in 1988, the incidence of mumps has declined steadily. We describe an outbreak of mumps in 1996 attacking 34 of a cohort of 98 schoolchildren born in 1982 and 1983. This is the largest outbreak in the UK since the introduction of the vaccine into the childhood immunization schedule. Salivary IgM assay was used as a simple, minimally invasive test to confirm the diagnosis. The occurrence of the outbreak demonstrates that British children who were just too old to receive mumps immunization in 1988 continue to be at risk of this disease as a result of diminished natural exposure. Further cases and outbreaks in this cohort are to be expected. Cohorts born before 1982 appear to be at less risk, presumably because of naturally acquired infection before the introduction of immunization.

In order to conduct a survey of influenza viruses entering Japan via travellers arriving by airplanes, gargle solutions were collected from passengers who reported to the quarantine station of Nagoya International Airport complaining of respiratory symptoms. From 504 samples collected between August 1996 and March 1999, 30 influenza virus strains were isolated. Twenty-eight of the isolates were influenza A (H3N2) viruses and two were influenza B viruses. No H1N1 virus was isolated. Among 28 isolates of H3N2 virus, 3 strains were obtained outside the influenza season. Nucleotide sequences of the haemagglutinin (HA) genes of these isolates along with those from domestic patients were analysed in order to determine the influence of imported influenza viruses by travellers on epidemics in Japan. From the phylogenetic and chronological aspects, the possibility was suggested in one case in 1997/8 and two in the 1998/9 season that imported virus by travellers may have influenced the domestic influenza epidemics.

A prospective cohort study was conducted in five purposively-sampled agro-ecological zone (AEZ)-grazing system strata in Murang’a District, Kenya, between March 1995 and June 1996. The study strata were selected based on a preliminary characterization study to represent the widest range of risks to East Coast fever (ECF) in the District and included zero-grazing and open-grazing farms. In total, 225 calves from 188 smallholder farms were examined from birth to 6 months of age and visited within the first 2 weeks of life and thereafter at bi-weekly intervals for up to 14 visits.

The purpose of the study was to characterize the differences in epidemiology (risks of infection, morbidity and mortality) and potential control of ECF between the selected strata. Evidence of Theileria parva infection was assessed by increased antibody levels as measured in an indirect ELISA assay by the percent positivity (PP) of serum samples relative to a strong positive reference serum.

Sero-conversion risks of T. parva were highest in the open-grazing strata. Antibody prevalence in adult cattle and ECF morbidity and mortality risks were also highest in open-grazing strata. While different, all five AEZ-grazing strata were considered to be endemically unstable for ECF. East Coast fever challenge was low in all zero-grazing strata and this challenge is likely to remain low due to continuing intensification of smallholder farming in the central highlands. In the open-grazing strata, there was higher challenge and a greater impact of ECF.

Somalia has suffered from a civil war during the last 10 years. In this period the use of whole blood has increased at least twofold in Mogadishu, Somalia compared with pre-war. Screening possibilities are limited. Recent data concerning the prevalence of infections with blood-borne and sexually transmitted agents are not available from this country. To investigate the spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1/2) and other blood-borne or sexually transmitted agents we tested a total of 256 serum samples collected in the summer of 1995 from blood donors, hospitalized children and adults in Mogadishu. The hepatitis B surface antigen (HbsAg) carrier rate was 19·1%, 5·6% and 21·3% among blood donors, hospitalized children and hospitalized adults, respectively. However, no children under 2 years of age were HbsAg positive. The overall presence of antibodies against hepatitis C virus (HCV) was 2·4% (6/256). In blood donors this was 0·6% (1/157). In none of the samples tested, antibodies against HIV 1 and 2 or human T-cell lymphotropic viruses (HTLV I and II) were detected. Our results indicate that, during the civil war in Somalia, no evidence of an increase of HIV infections was found. Our findings indicate that preventive measures in Somalia should focus mainly on prevention of HBV-infections. HBV-vaccine could be administered within the framework of the expanded programme on immunization, as none of the children less than 2 years of age were HbsAg positive.

Linking continuous community-based morbidity recording of influenza-like illness (ILI) with virological sampling has consistently proved its value as one of the earliest indicators of circulating influenza activity. The clinical morbidity recording in the Portuguese national surveillance network, during a 7-year period, and the contribution of different diagnostic techniques, including virus isolation, multiplex RT–PCR, immunocapture enzyme linked immunoassay (EIA) and complement fixation tests (CFTs) for the detection of influenza in such a community-based setting is described and evaluated in this study. There was good correlation between the increase of morbidity, total samples taken and the detection of influenza virus by all the methods although this was less evident for virus isolation and EIA than for RT–PCR or serology. From a total of 1685 throat swabs collected from cases of ILI, 43·6% were RT–PCR positive, 17·5% were positive by capture EIA and in 5% virus isolates were made. The detection of influenza by RT–PCR occurred earlier than by any other method and showed the best correlation with epidemic patterns of morbidity registration. We conclude that in surveillance systems where virus culture is sub-optimal, RT–PCR provides a rapid, sensitive, specific method for detecting influenza viruses from community-based sampling.

To describe epidemiological features on HIV prevalence among female commercial sex workers (CSWs), a cross-sectional study on sexual behaviour and serological prevalence was carried out in Cambodia. The CSWs were interviewed on their demographic characters and behaviour and their blood samples were taken for testing on sexually transmitted diseases, including HIV, Chlamydia trachomatis, syphilis, and hepatitis B. Associations between risk factors and HIV seropositivity were analysed. High seroprevalence of HIV and Chlamydia trachomatis IgG antibody (CT-IgG-Ab) was shown among the CSWs (54 and 81·7%, respectively). Univariate logistic regression analyses showed an association between HIV seropositivity and age, duration of prostitution, the number of clients per day and CT-IgG-Ab. Especially, high-titre chlamydial seropositivity showed a strong significant association with HIV prevalence. In multiple logistic regression analyses, CT-IgG-Ab with higher titre was significantly independently related to HIV infection. These suggest that existence of Chlamydia trachomatis is highly related to HIV prevalence.

The distribution of the meningococcal insertion sequence IS1301 was analysed in 496 strains of different serogroups and clonal lineages of Neisseria meningitidis, and in 64 neisserial strains other than N. meningitidis. IS1301 was found in meningococci, but not in apathogenic Neisseria sp. and Neisseria gonorrhoeae. The copy numbers of IS1301 varied between 2 and 17 per genome. IS1301 positive strains were mostly found among the serogroups 29E, W135, X, and Y. Clonal lineages of serogroup A, B, and C meningococci associated with epidemic meningococcal disease were rarely positive for IS1301.