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A mathematical model for evaluating the impact of vaccination schedules: application to Neisseria meningitidis

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 June 2003

H. C. TUCKWELL
Affiliation:
Epidémiologie et Sciences de l'Information, Inserm U444, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, 27 rue Chaligny, 75571 Paris Cedex 12, France
T. HANSLIK
Affiliation:
Epidémiologie et Sciences de l'Information, Inserm U444, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, 27 rue Chaligny, 75571 Paris Cedex 12, France Service de Médecine Interne, Hôpital Ambroise Paré, Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, Université de Versailles, Saint-Quentin-en Yvelines, 9 av Ch de Gaulle, 92100 Boulogne, France
A. FLAHAULT
Affiliation:
Epidémiologie et Sciences de l'Information, Inserm U444, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, 27 rue Chaligny, 75571 Paris Cedex 12, France
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Abstract

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A mathematical model is described which determines the impact of a schedule of vaccination on the time course of a certain class of diseases. The data are the demographic variables and parameters and age-dependent non-fatal and fatal case rates. Given the age- and time-dependent rates of vaccination including coverage and corresponding efficacies, various schedules may be distinguished by either the absolute numbers of cases and deaths avoided or the numbers of cases and deaths avoided per dose of vaccine. The model was applied to meningo-coccal serogroup C disease in France. The outcomes of six different vaccination schedules were examined. In absolute terms, a schedule in which all individuals aged between 2 and 20 years were vaccinated performed best, but this schedule and that in which only 1-year olds were vaccinated performed equally and best in terms of cases prevented, but not lives saved, per dose.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© 2003 Cambridge University Press