As natural and anthropogenic forcings impel anticipated climate change, their effects on biodiversity and environmental sustainability are evident. A fundamental question that is often overlooked is: which changes in climate will cause the redistribution or extinction of threatened species? Here, we mapped and modelled the current and future geographical distributions of the four threatened medicinal plants – Aconitum heterophyllum Wall. ex Royle, Fritillaria cirrhosa D.Don, Meconopsis aculeata Royle and Rheum webbianum Royle – in Kashmir Himalaya using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modelling. Species occurrence records were collated from detailed field studies carried out between the years 2010 and 2020. Four general circulation models for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios were chosen for future range changes over periods around 2050 (average for 2041–2060) and 2070 (average of 2061–2080). Notable differences existed between species in their responses to predictive environmental variables of temperature and precipitation. Increase in the most suitable habitat, except for A. heterophyllum and R. webbianum, were evident across Himalayan Mountain regions, while the Pir Panjal mountain region exhibited a decrease for all four species under future climate change scenarios. This study exemplifies the idiosyncratic response of narrow-range plants to expected future climate change and highlights conservation implications.

For many, declining biodiversity represents an emotionally and psychologically distant ‘cost’ – similar to how a number of people perceive climate change. Using an expectancy-value theory framework, we showed participants photographs that visibly illustrated the threat of biodiversity loss. Specifically, we tested a combination of preregistered and exploratory hypotheses through an online experiment (n = 843) to understand whether viewing photographs of plants and animals (with and without captions) bolstered people’s valuing of biodiversity and willingness to donate to a nature-focused charity relative to a control group. Participants who viewed photographs (without captions) valued biodiversity more and donated more to the nature-focused charity; those who viewed photographs with captions showed similar though more muted (non-statistically significant) effects. Follow-up mediation analyses on the photographs-only participants suggested that the photographs may have catalysed negative emotions that increased valuing of biodiversity and, in turn, increased donations. This study provides preregistered evidence that thoughtfully selected photographs boost people’s valuing of biodiversity and exploratory evidence that the pathway through which that might occur is more likely via negative emotions than through reduced psychological distance. Educators, conservationists, journalists and others may find these results informative as they develop strategies for addressing the acute problem of biodiversity loss.

Demographic modelling can reveal options for improved conservation management, especially for rare or long-lived species not amenable to experimentation. Sturgeon (Acipenseridae) include many such species, endangered by demand for caviar, their unfertilized roe, and by dams blocking their migrations. Restocking of sturgeon populations with farm-raised individuals has probably prevented extinctions and widespread extirpations of some species, but it has rarely led to true recovery in Eurasia, given ongoing harvest. We used modified Leslie matrix models to test whether restocking with year-old juveniles instead of weeks-old fry could recover the critically endangered Amur sturgeon (Acipenser schrenckii), endemic to the Amur River basin along the Russia–China border. Without restocking, or even releasing an expert-recommended annual volume of young fry (10 million), we project that three of four Amur sturgeon populations will be nearly extirpated within 30 years. However, restocking with 5% as many (500 000) year-old juveniles annually could grow three populations (currently 0–425 mature females) and slow declines in another so that each has over 6400 mature females within 30 years. Retooling stocking efforts to use fewer juveniles that survive at higher rates than do small fry could buy time to reduce harvesting pressure on Amur sturgeon and for other related sturgeon species.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), designed to build critical infrastructure and coordinate economic growth, is the most significant development initiative in modern history. The BRI has a documented vision for sustainability, including environmental impact assessments and responsibility tenets. Despite this, a growing body of literature has found adverse effects of BRI projects on protected land and species. To understand corporate responsibility and regulations for companies participating in the BRI, we gathered information on 260 BRI companies using the Refinitiv Eikon BRI Connect database and the China Global Investment Tracker. The results revealed a significant gap in corporate responsibility reporting for biodiversity impacts, environmental restoration, environmental project financing and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 14 ‘Life below Water’ and 15 ‘Life on Land’. The modest fraction of companies that we found to report biodiversity accountability highlights the need to restructure and incentivize the reporting of environmental and biodiversity risks. The current evidence of limited adherence to responsibility measures highlights a clear opportunity to align BRI development with the BRI’s vision for sustainability, and to strengthen links for policy engagement within Chinese regulatory frameworks and international obligations at the United Nations within its SDG framework.

Unexploited public areas such as roadsides could provide habitat to help preserve biodiversity in South America, as in other regions. Our objective was to determine the importance of the roadsides of the Argentine Pampas for native birds and to suggest management strategies. We surveyed birds inhabiting roadsides in all seasons and determined whether roadsides were used as habitat. We recorded a total of 95 species on roadsides, which represents 55% of those species described from the area. Species included specialists of grassland, wetland and woodland, 4 vulnerable species and 19 declining species. Bird richness decreased in winter, as well as grassland specialists’ abundances. Most individuals used roadsides for foraging and performing reproduction-related behaviours, mainly on native trees; these and tall grass were the main substrates. We conclude that many species of birds use the habitat provided by roadsides, and we recommend management strategies such as favouring seed availability in winter, restoring trees and tall grass and increasing vegetation diversity to maximize roadside conservation value.

Recreational activities may have negative effects on wildlife, but there are very few studies specifically on the effects of free-flight activities (i.e., hang-gliders, paragliders and their powered derivatives) on wildlife. We review the existing scientific studies on this issue in order to identify the gaps in knowledge at the taxonomic-group level in order to develop guidelines to minimize the impacts of recreational free-flight on wildlife. We found that studies mainly concerned the effects on four ungulate species (chamois, red deer, roe deer and Alpine ibex) and, to a lesser extent, on raptors such as the golden eagle and two vulture species (bearded vulture and cinereous vulture). The studies have generally been carried out in high mountain areas (e.g., the European Alps). Data show that free-flight activities create disturbances and have negative effects on wildlife, resulting in increased energy expenditure, reduction of feeding time, abandonment of feeding areas, reduced breeding output, loss of body condition, increased predation risk and harm from flight accidents. However, the lack of studies on many species and areas, along with the small number of long-term studies, prevents proper assessment of the current situation regarding the impact of this activity on wildlife. We provide recommendations to improve the regulation of this activity.

Although protected areas (PAs) play an important role in ecosystem conservation and climate change adaptation, no systematic information is available on PA protection of high-elevation freshwater ecosystems (e.g., lakes and watersheds with glaciers), their biodiversity and their ecosystem services in the tropical Andes. We therefore combined a literature review and map analysis of PAs of International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and national systems of PAs and freshwater ecosystems. We found that seven national parks were created for water resources protection but were not designed for freshwater conservation (i.e., larger watersheds). High-value biodiversity sites have not been protected, and new local PAs were created due to water resource needs. We quantified 31 Ramsar sites and observed that PAs cover 12% of lakes, 31% of glacial lakes and 12% of the total stream length in the tropical Andes. Additionally, 120 watersheds (average area 631 km2) with glaciers and 40% of the total glacier surface area were covered by PAs. Future research into the role of PAs in ecosystem services provision and more detailed freshwater inventories within and around PAs, especially for those dependent on glacier runoff, will fill key knowledge gaps for freshwater conservation and climate change adaptation in the tropical Andes.

The adoption of adaptive management plans has been advocated in order to ensure the most effective management of natural habitats. Here, it is demonstrated how a hierarchical structural equation model that is fitted to temporal ecological monitoring data from a number of sites may be used to generate quantitative local ecological predictions and how these predictions may form the basis of adaptive management plans. Local ecological predictions will be made for the cover of the dwarf shrub cross-leaved heath (Erica tetralix) on Danish wet heathlands, which is an indicator of the conservation status of wet heathlands under different management scenarios. Based on a realistic example, the model predictions conclude that grazing by livestock on wet heathlands with a relatively low cover of cross-leaved heath cannot be recommended as the only management practice. Generally, ecological monitoring data may be used to generate quantitative and credible local adaptive management plans where uncertainty is taken into account.

Climate change is causing the geographical ranges of some species to track suitable conditions. Habitat specialists, range-restricted species and species with limited dispersal abilities may be unable to track changing conditions, increasing their extinction risk. In response to changing conditions and species movement patterns, there is a need to account for the effects of climate change when designing protected areas and identifying potential climate refugia. We used ecological niche models projected into future climates to identify potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of 11 rupicolous reptile species in the Soutpansberg Mountains, South Africa. Lygodactylus incognitus, Lygodactylus soutpansbergensis, Platysaurus relictus and Vhembelacerta rupicola were identified as being vulnerable to climate change due to substantial reductions in suitable habitat and low spatial overlap between current and future niche envelopes. We identified areas of high conservation importance for the persistence of these species under present-day and projected future conditions. The western Soutpansberg was identified as an area of high conservation priority as it is a potential refuge under future projections. Projecting distributions of vulnerable species into future climate predictions can guide future research and identify potential refugia that will best conserve species with restricted ranges in a world with climate change.

Few studies have highlighted perceptions of urban natural open space systems: land specifically excluded from development to protect ecosystem services. We used a local metropolitan city in South Africa to explore community perceptions of its natural open space system through individual qualitative interviews (n = 40). The objectives were: (1) to identify ecosystem services and disservices associated with the city’s natural open space system, and the reasons thereof, by exploring the relational values of nature held by a diverse socioeconomic spectrum of urban residents; and (2) to identify priorities for protecting the natural open space system by enhancing the benefits and minimizing ecosystem disservices. Reference to ecosystem services and disservices were coded according to the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) categorization of nature’s contribution to people. Non-material services (relational benefits) were impacted by exploitative material uses, access concerns and (mis)management. Challenges and opportunities identified relate to nature as a resource for supporting livelihoods and lifestyles; community outreach and employment opportunities; personal safety, health and aesthetic concerns; and lack of political accountability and municipal planning in terms of the management of natural open spaces. Innovative collaborative management and stewardship interventions with ecological and socioeconomic benefits should be prioritized to protect the natural open space system.

The semiarid Caatinga is the largest Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest and Woodland (SDTFW) in the Neotropics. Yet the vast majority of the Caatinga is unprotected, with severe chronic anthropogenic use, exotic species and global warming among its most immediate threats. Here, we contrast the current Caatinga protected areas (PAs) scenery with that of other SDTFWs in the Neotropics. We also analyse the growth process of the PAs in the Caatinga over time across Brazilian PA categories and jurisdictions. The percentage of Caatinga that is protected is average among the SDTFWs. Caatinga has more state than federal PAs; however, the size of the PAs is greater under a federal jurisdiction. Nonetheless, in both jurisdictions, Environmental Protected Areas, one of the least restrictive categories, are more representative in terms of total area, corresponding to nearly 80% of the Caatinga PA system. Our results are relevant for international conservation goals because they depict the current PA scenery and clarify the challenges for achieving the actual preservation of the unique Caatinga biome.

Throughout southern Africa, there have been growing concerns about the rates of ecosystem degradation. This issue and natural resource governance concerns in general remain key challenges. We conducted a scoping review of 135 articles to inductively assess how governance challenges have manifested in natural resource management during 2010–2020 in southern Africa. The paper’s findings show that governance challenges in southern Africa are ‘hydra-headed’. The results suggest that governance challenges related to the maintenance of system integrity and functioning – specifically lack of coordination, accountability, capacity, skills and resources to define effective natural resource management – were the most reported in literature. Challenges related to achieving socially equitable governance were the second most mentioned, followed by those related to institutional robustness. Challenges related to the adaptability and flexibility of institutions, specifically learning, monitoring capacity and innovation, were the least identified, showing that these areas are poorly studied or that these attributes are considered less problematic for achieving sustainable outcomes. Furthermore, the review highlights critical gaps – the limited engagement with governance-related frameworks, specifically polycentricity, adaptive governance and social-ecological stewardship. In concluding, we highlight governance reforms and future research needs on the topic of natural resources in southern Africa.

The prevention of tropical forest deforestation is essential for mitigating climate change. We tested the machine learning algorithm Maxent to predict deforestation across the Peruvian Amazon. We used official annual 2001–2019 deforestation data to develop a predictive model and to test the model’s accuracy using near-real-time forest loss data for 2020. Distance from agricultural land and distance from roads were the predictor variables that contributed most to the final model, indicating that a narrower set of variables contribute nearly 80% of the information necessary for prediction at scale. The permutation importance indicating variable information not present in the other variables was also highest for distance from agricultural land and distance from roads, at 40.5% and 14.3%, respectively. The predictive model registered 73.2% of the 2020 early alerts in a high or very high risk category; less than 1% of forest cover in national protected areas were registered as very high risk, but buffer zones were far more vulnerable, with 15% of forest cover being in this category. To our knowledge, this is the first study to use 19 years of annual data for deforestation risk. The open-source machine learning method could be applied to other forest regions, at scale, to improve strategies for reducing future deforestation.

Globally, there is a trend towards conserving biodiversity by promoting co-management with multiple stakeholders at landscape scales. Environmental policies emphasize stakeholder engagement in decision-making, yet landscape conservation is typically a bureaucratic–scientific endeavour. Building trusting relationships with stakeholders is key to negotiations that minimize trade-offs and maximize synergies. Incorporating shared stakeholder objectives improves co-management, as they act as incentives for participation and trust development. We explored the degree of alignment between the bottom-up stakeholder objectives and top-down management objectives of a landscape-scale conservation initiative on the West Coast of South Africa. We categorized stakeholders into six affiliations representing governmental, private and community organizations, and using a social-ecological inventory we identified ten shared objectives. Of these objectives, three were shared between all affiliations, namely biodiversity conservation, socioeconomic development and coordination of the landscape approach. The first two aligned with the top-down landscape management objectives and the latter did not. The importance of coordinating landscape approaches in multi-stakeholder landscape-scale initiatives is crucial to long-term success, and we recommend that it be formally included as a landscape management objective. Exploring the alignment between bottom-up and top-down objectives can highlight overlooked functions of co-management and can reduce the transaction costs of sustaining conservation efforts in the long term.