Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-c4f8m Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-24T09:38:54.084Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

TESTING THE PARAMETRIC SPECIFICATION OF THE DIFFUSION FUNCTION IN A DIFFUSION PROCESS

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 January 2007

Fuchun Li
Affiliation:
Bank of Canada

Abstract

A new consistent test is proposed for the parametric specification of the diffusion function in a diffusion process without any restrictions on the functional form of the drift function. The data are assumed to be sampled discretely in a time interval that can be fixed or lengthened to infinity. The test statistic is shown to follow an asymptotic normal distribution under the null hypothesis that the parametric diffusion function is correctly specified. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to examine the finite-sample performance of the test, revealing that the test has good size and power.The author is grateful to Yacine Aït-Sahalia, John Knight, Oliver Linton (the co-editor), Greg Tkacz, Jun Yang, and three anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions. He also thanks seminar participants at the Bank of Canada, the 2004 Semiparametrics Conference in Rio de Janeiro, and the 2005 Econometric Study Group in Bristol. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author. No responsibility for them should be attributed to the Bank of Canada.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© 2007 Cambridge University Press

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Aït-Sahalia, Y. (1996a) Nonparametric pricing of interest rate derivatives securities. Econometrica 64, 527560.Google Scholar
Aït-Sahalia, Y. (1996b) Testing continuous-time models of the spot interest rate. Review of Financial Studies 2, 385426.Google Scholar
Aït-Sahalia, Y., P.J. Bickel, & T.M. Stoker (2001) Goodness-of-fit tests for regression using kernel methods. Journal of Econometrics 105, 363412.Google Scholar
Bandi, F.M. & P.C.B. Phillips (2003) Fully nonparametric estimation of scalar diffusion models. Econometrica 71, 241283.Google Scholar
Bickel, P.J. & M. Rosenblatt (1973) On some global measures of the deviations of density function estimates. Annals of Statistics 1, 10711095.Google Scholar
Chan, K.C., G.A. Karolyi, F.A. Longstaff, & A.B. Sanders (1992) An empirical comparison of alternative models of the short-term interest rate. Journal of Finance 47, 12091227.Google Scholar
Chapman, D.A. & N.D. Pearson (2000) Is the short rate drift actually nonlinear? Journal of Finance 55, 355388.Google Scholar
Corradi, V. & N.R. Swanson (2006) Bootstrap conditional distribution tests under dynamic misspecification. Journal of Econometrics 133, 779806.Google Scholar
Corradi, V. & H. White (1999) Specification tests for the variance of a diffusion. Journal of Time Series Analysis 20, 253270.Google Scholar
Cox, J.C., J.E. Ingersoll, & S.A. Ross (1985) A theory of the term structure of interest rates. Econometrica 53, 385407.Google Scholar
Diebold, F.X., T. Gunther, & A. Tay (1998) Evaluating density forecasts with applications to finance and management. International Economic Review 39, 863883.Google Scholar
Downing, C.T. (1999) Nonparametric Estimation of Multifactor Continuous Time Interest-Rate Models. Working paper 1999-62, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Durham, G.B. (2003) Likelihood-based specification analysis of continuous-time models of the short-term interest rate, Journal of Financial Economics 70, 436487.Google Scholar
Fan, Y. (1994) Testing the goodness-of-fit of a parametric density function by kernel method. Econometric Theory 10, 316356.Google Scholar
Fan, Y. & Q. Li (1999) Central limit theorem for degenerate U-statistic of absolute regular processes with application to model specification testing. Journal of Nonparametric Statistics 10, 245271.Google Scholar
Friedman, A. (1975) Stochastic Differential Equations and Applications, vol. 1. Academic Press.
Gallant, A.R. & G. Tauchen (1996) Which moments to match? Econometric Theory 12, 657681.Google Scholar
Györfi, L., W. Härdle, P. Sarda, & P. Vieu (1989) Nonparametric Curve Estimation from Time Series. Lecture Notes in Statistics 60. Springer-Verlag.
Hall, P. (1984) Central limit theorem for integrated square error of multivariate nonparametric density estimators. Journal of Multivariate Analysis 14, 116.Google Scholar
Hansen, L.P. & J.A. Scheinkman (1995) Back to the future: Generating moment implications for continuous time Markov processes. Econometrica 63, 767804.Google Scholar
Hong, Y. & H. Li (2005) Nonparametric specification testing for continuous-time models with application to spot interest rates. Review of Financial Studies 18, 3784.Google Scholar
Ikeda, N. & S. Watanabe (1981) Stochastic Differential Equations and Diffusion Processes. North-Holland.
Jiang, G.J. & J.L. Knight (1997) A nonparametric approach to the estimation of diffusion process, with an application to a short-term interest rate model. Econometric Theory 13, 615645.Google Scholar
Kristensen, D. (2004) Estimation in Two Classes of Semiparametric Diffusion Models. Mimeo, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Lavergne, P. & Q. Vuong (2000) Nonparametric significance testing. Econometric Theory 16, 576601.Google Scholar
Li, F. (2005) Testing the Parametric Specification of the Diffusion Function in a Diffusion Process. Working paper, Bank of Canada.
Li, Q. (1999) Consistent model specification tests for time series econometric models. Journal of Econometrics 92, 101147.Google Scholar
Li, F. & G. Tkacz (2006) A consistent bootstrap test for conditional density functions with time-series data. Journal of Econometrics 133, 841862.Google Scholar
Nicolau, J. (2003) Bias reduction in nonparametric diffusion coefficient estimation. Econometric Theory 19, 754777.Google Scholar
Pagan, A. & A. Ullah (1999) Nonparametric Econometrics. Cambridge University Press.
Pritsker, M. (1998) Nonparametric density estimation and tests of continuous time interest rate models. Review of Financial Studies 11, 449487.Google Scholar
Thompson, T. (2001) Specification Tests for Continuous-Time Models. Working paper, Department of Economics, Harvard University.
Vasicek, O. (1977) An equilibrium characterization of the term structure. Journal of Financial Economics 5, 177188.Google Scholar
Wong, E. (1964) The construction of a class of stationary Markov processes. In R. Bellman (ed.), Proceedings of Symposia in Applied Mathematics on Stochastic Processes in Mathematical Physics and Engineering, vol. 16, pp. 264276. American Mathematical Society.
Yoshihara, K. (1976) Limiting behavior of U-statistic for stationary, absolutely regular processes. Zeitschrift für Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie Verwandte. Gebiete 35, 237252.Google Scholar