Hostname: page-component-7479d7b7d-jwnkl Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-13T22:19:07.958Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Testing, Encompassing, and Simulating Dynamic Econometric Models

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 February 2009

Abstract

We define, in a dynamic framework, the notions of binding functions, images, reflecting sets, indirect identification, indirect information, and encompassing. We study the properties of the notion of encompassing when the true distribution does not necessarily belong to one of the two competing models of interest. In this context we propose various test procedures of the encompassing hypothesis. Some of these procedures are based on simulations, and some of them are linked with the notion of indirect estimation (in particular, the GET and simulated GET procedures). As a by-product, we get an asymptotic theory of the tests of non-nested hypotheses in the stationary dynamic case.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1995

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Akaike, H. (1973) Information theory and an extension of the likelihood principles. In Petrov, B.N. & Csaki, F. (eds.), Proceedings of the Second International Symposium of Information Theory. Budapest.Google Scholar
Cox, D.R. (1961) Test of separate families of hypotheses. In Proceedings of the Fourth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistic and Probability, vol. 1, pp. 105123. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Cox, D.R. (1962) Further results on tests of separate families of hypotheses. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B24, 406424.Google Scholar
Davidson, R. & MacKinnon, J.G. (1981) Several tests of model specification in the presence of alternative hypotheses. Econometrica 49, 781793.10.2307/1911522CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Florens, J.P., Hendry, D.F. & Richard, J.F. (1987) Parsimonious Encompassing: An Application to Non-Nested Hypotheses and Hausman Specification Tests. Discussion paper 87.09, Duke University.Google Scholar
Gallant, R.A. & Tauchen, G. (1992) Which Moments to Match? Mimeo, Duke University.Google Scholar
Gouriéroux, C. & Monfort, A. (1989) Statistique et modèles econométriques. Economica (Paris) (2 vols.).Google Scholar
Gouriéroux, C., Monfort, A. & Renault, E. (1993) Indirect inference. Journal of Applied Econometrics (Special Issue: Econometric Inference Using Simulation Techniques) 8, 85115.10.1002/jae.3950080507Google Scholar
Gouriéroux, C., Monfort, A. & Trognon, A. (1983) Testing nested or non-nested hypotheses. Journal of Econometrics 21, 83115.10.1016/0304-4076(83)90121-5Google Scholar
Gouriéroux, C., Monfort, A. & Trognon, A. (1984) Pseudo maximum likelihood methods: Theory. Econometrica 52, 681700.10.2307/1913471CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gouriéroux, C., Monfort, A. & Trognon, A. (1985) Moindres carrés asymptotiques. Annals de l'INSEE 58, 91122.10.2307/20076550CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hendry, D. (1993) The Roles of Economic Theory and Econometrics in Time Series Economics. Invited session. Econometric Society European Meeting, Uppsala.Google Scholar
Hendry, D. & Mizon, G. (1993) Evaluating dynamic econometric models by encompassing the VAR. In Phillips, P.C.B. (ed.), Models, Methods and Applications of Econometrics. Oxford: Basil Blackwell.Google Scholar
Hendry, D.F. & Richard, J.F. (1982) On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics. Journal of Econometrics 20, 333.10.1016/0304-4076(82)90101-4Google Scholar
Hendry, D.F. & Richard, J.F. (1989) Recent developments in the theory of encompassing. In Cornet, B. & Tulkens, H. (eds.), Contributions to Operation Research and Econometrics. The Twentieth Anniversary of CORE, pp. 393440. Cambridge: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Lu, M. & Mizon, G. (1993) The Encompassing Principle and Specification Tests. 93/11, European University Institute, Florence.Google Scholar
Maravall, A. & Mathis, A. (1991) Encompassing Univariate Models in Multivariate Time Series: Case Study. Mimeo, European University Institute, Florence.Google Scholar
Mizon, G.E. (1984) The encompassing approach in econometrics. In Hendry, D.F. & Wallis, K.F. (eds.), Econometrics and Qualitative Modelling. Oxford: Basil Blackwell.Google Scholar
Mizon, G.E. & Richard, J.F. (1986) The encompassing principle and its application to testing non-nested hypotheses. Econometrica 54, 657678.10.2307/1911313Google Scholar
Newey, W.K. & West, K.D. (1987) A simple, positive definite, heredoscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix. Econometrica 55, 703708.10.2307/1913610CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pesaran, H. & Pesaran, B. (1992) A Simulation Approach to the Problem of Computing Cox's Statistic for Testing Non-Nested Models. Discussion paper, University of California Los Angeles.Google Scholar
Phillips, P.C.B. (1992a) Bayes Methods for Trending Multiple Time Series with an Empirical Application to the US Economy. Discussion paper 1025, Cowles Foundation.Google Scholar
Phillips, P.C.B. (1992b) Bayesian Model Selection and Prediction with Empirical Applications. Mimeo, Cowles Foundation.Google Scholar
Phillips, P.C.B. & Ploberger, W. (1992) Posterior Odds Testing for a Unit Root with Data-Based Model Selection. Discussion paper 1017, Cowles Foundation.Google Scholar
Smith, A.A. (1990) Three Essays on the Solution and Estimation of Dynamic Macroeconomic Models. Ph.D. Thesis, Duke University.Google Scholar
Smith, A.A. (1993) Estimating nonlinear time-series models using simulated vector autoregressions. Journal of Applied Econometrics (Special Issue: Econometric Inference Using Simulation Techniques) 8, 6384.10.1002/jae.3950080506CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, R.J. (1993) Consistent Tests for the Encompassing Hypothesis. Mimeo.Google Scholar
Vuong, Q. (1989) Likelihood ratio tests for model selection and non-nested hypotheses. Econometrica 57, 307334.10.2307/1912557Google Scholar
White, H. (1982) Maximum likelihood estimation of misspecified models. Econometrica 50, 126.10.2307/1912526Google Scholar
Wooldridge, J.M. (1990) An encompassing approach to conditional mean tests with applications to testing non-nested hypotheses. Journal of Econometrics 45, 331350.10.1016/0304-4076(90)90003-CGoogle Scholar