Hostname: page-component-84b7d79bbc-g5fl4 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-26T19:31:05.271Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

LOCAL INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLE METHOD FOR THE GENERALIZED ADDITIVE-INTERACTIVE NONLINEAR VOLATILITY MODEL ESTIMATION

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 January 2012

Abstract

In this article we consider a new separable nonparametric volatility model that includes second-order interaction terms in both mean and conditional variance functions. This is a very flexible nonparametric ARCH model that can potentially explain the behavior of the wide variety of financial assets. The model is estimated using the generalized version of the local instrumental variable estimation method first introduced in Kim and Linton (2004, Econometric Theory 20, 1094–1139). This method is computationally more effective than most other nonparametric estimation methods that can potentially be used to estimate components of such a model. Asymptotic behavior of the resulting estimators is investigated and their asymptotic normality is established. Explicit expressions for asymptotic means and variances of these estimators are also obtained.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2011

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Ango Nze, P. (1992) Criteres d’ergodicite de quelques modeles a representation markovenne. Les Comptes Rendus de l’Académie des Sciences Paris 315(1), 13011304.Google Scholar
Auestad, B. & Tjostheim, D. (1990) Identification of nonlinear time series: First order characterization and order estimation. Biometrika 77, 669687.Google Scholar
Bera, A.K. & Lee, S. (1990) On the Formulation of a General Structure for Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Mimeo, University of Illinois.Google Scholar
Black, F. (1976) Studies in stock price volatility changes. Proceedings of the 1976 Meeting of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, pp. 177181. American Statistical Association.Google Scholar
Bollerslev, T. (1986) Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics 31, 307327.Google Scholar
Breiman, L. & Friedman, J.H. (1985) Estimating optimal transformations for multiple regression and correlation (with discussion). Journal of the American Statistical Association 80, 580619.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Buja, A., Hastie, T., & Tibshirani, R. (1989) Linear smoothers and additive models (with discussion). Annals of Statistics 17, 453555.Google Scholar
Engle, R.F. (1982) Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica 50(4), 9871007.Google Scholar
Engle, R.F. & Ng, V.K., (1993) Measuring and testing the impact of news on volatility. The Journal of Finance 48(5), 17491778.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fan, J. & Yao, Q. (2003) Nonlinear Time Series: Nonparametric and Parametric Methods. Springer.Google Scholar
Hastie, T. & Tibshirani, R. (1987) Generalized additive models: Some applications. Journal of the American Statistical Association 82, 371386.Google Scholar
Hastie, T. & Tibshirani, R. (1990) Generalized Additive Models. Chapman & Hall.Google Scholar
Kim, W. & Linton, O.B. (2004) The LIVE method for generalized additive volatility models. Econometric Theory 20(6), 10941139.Google Scholar
Li, Q., Hsiao, C., & Zinn, J. (2003) Consistent specification test for semiparametric/nonparametric models based on series estimation methods. Journal of Econometrics 112, 295325.Google Scholar
Linton, O.B. & Nielsen, J. (1995) A kernel method of estimating structured nonparametric regression based on marginal integration. Biometrika 82, 93100.Google Scholar
Lu, Z. & Jiang, Z. (2001) L1 geometric ergodicity of a multivariate nonlinear AR model with an ARCH term. Statistics & Probability Letters 51, 121130.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Masry, E. (1996a) Multivariate local polynomial regression for time series: Uniform strong consistency and rates. Journal of Time Series Analysis 17, 571599.Google Scholar
Masry, E. (1996b) Multivariate regression estimation: Local polynomial fitting for time series. Stochastic Processes and Their Applications 65, 81101.Google Scholar
Newey, W.K. (1994) Kernel estimation of partial means. Econometric Theory 10, 233253.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pagan, A.R. & Hong, Y.S. (1991) Nonparametric estimation and the risk premium. In Barnett, W., Powell, J., & Tauchen, G.E. (eds.), Nonparametric and Semiparametric Methods in Econometrics and Statistics. Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Pagan, A.R. & Schwert, G.W. (1990) Alternative models for conditional stock volatility. Journal of Econometrics 45, 267290.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rio, E. (1993) Covariance inequalities for strongly mixing processes. Annales de l’institut Henri Poincaré (B) Probabilités et Statistiques 29(4), 587597.Google Scholar
Sentana, E. (1995) Quadratic ARCH models. Review of Economic Studies 62, 639661.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sperlich, S., Tjostheim, D., & Yang, L. (2002) Nonparametric estimation and testing of interaction in additive models. Econometric Theory 18, 197251.Google Scholar
Stone, C.J. (1994) The use of polynomial splines and their tensor products in multivariate function estimation (with discussion). Annals of Statistics 22, 118184.Google Scholar
Tjostheim, D. & Auestad, B. (1994) Nonparametric identification of nonlinear time series: Projections. Journal of the American Statistical Association 89, 13981409.Google Scholar
Wand, M.P. & Jones, M.C. (1995) Kernel Smoothing. Chapman & Hall.Google Scholar
Yang, L., Härdle, W., & Nielsen, J.P. (1999) Nonparametric autoregression with multiplicative volatility and additive mean. Journal of Time Series Analysis 20, 579604.Google Scholar