Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Home
Hostname: page-component-59b7f5684b-ns2hh Total loading time: 0.705 Render date: 2022-09-24T16:32:29.015Z Has data issue: true Feature Flags: { "shouldUseShareProductTool": true, "shouldUseHypothesis": true, "isUnsiloEnabled": true, "useRatesEcommerce": false, "displayNetworkTab": true, "displayNetworkMapGraph": false, "useSa": true } hasContentIssue true

Investigation on the Control of COVID-19 in Wuhan: Number of Infections Outside Hospitals and the Reproduction Number

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 June 2022

Yongxue Chen
Affiliation:
College of Computer and Information Sciences, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, China School of Physical Sciences, University of California, Irvine, USA
Hui Zhang
Affiliation:
College of Computer and Information Sciences, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, China
Jingyu Wang
Affiliation:
College of Computer and Information Sciences, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, China
Cheng Li
Affiliation:
College of Computer and Information Sciences, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, China
Ning Yi
Affiliation:
College of Computer and Information Sciences, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, China
Yongxian Wen*
Affiliation:
College of Computer and Information Sciences, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, China
*
Corresponding author: Yongxian Wen, Email: 32237530@qq.com.

Abstract

COVID-19 is erupting globally, and Wuhan successfully controlled it within a month. Infections arose from infectious persons outside hospitals. After data revision, data-based and model-based analyses were implemented, and the conclusions are as follows. The incubation period of most infected people may be 6-7 days. The number of infectious persons outside hospitals in Wuhan on January 20, 2020 was about 10000 and reached more than 20000 on the day of Lockdown; it exceeded 72000 on February 4. Both data-based and model-based analyses gave out the evolution of the reproduction number, which was over 2.5 in early January, went down to 1.62 in late January and 1.20 in early February, with a sudden drop to less than 0.5 due to the strict Stay-at-home management after February 11. Strategies of Stay-at-home, Safe-protective measures, and Ark hospitals were the main contributions to control COVID-19 in Wuhan. In Wuhan, 2 inflection points of COVID-19, exactly correspond to February 5 and February 15, the 2 days when Ark hospitals were introduced, and the complete implementation of Stay-at-home. Based on the expression of the reproduction number, group immunity is also discussed. It shows that only when the group immunization rate is over 75% can COVID-19 be under control; group immunity would be full infection and the total deaths will be 220000 for a city as big as Wuhan. Sensitivity analysis suggests that 30% of people staying at home in combination with better behavior changes, such as social-distancing and frequent handwashing, can effectively contain COVID-19. However, only when this proportion is over 60% can the controlled effect and efficiency like Wuhan be obtained.

Type
Original Research
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Society for Disaster Medicine and Public Health, Inc.

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

World Health Organization (WHO). Emergencies preparedness, response. Pneumonia of unknown cause-China, Disease outbreak news, 5 January 2020. https://www.who.int/csr/don/05-january-2020-pneumonia-of-unkown-cause-china/en/. Accessed March 23, 2020.Google Scholar
World Health Organization (WHO). Director General’s opening remarks. https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19—20-march-2020. Accessed March 22, 2020.Google Scholar
World Health Organization (WHO). Home/Emergencies/Diseases/Coronavirus disease 2019. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019. Accessed March 23, 2020.Google Scholar
World Health Organization (WHO). Coronavirus situation reports. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200429-sitrep-100-covid-19.pdf. Accessed May 3, 2020.Google Scholar
World Health Organization (WHO). Prevention and control of new coronavirus pneumonia. Outbreak notification. http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/list3rd/yes/802. Accessed March 23, 2020.Google Scholar
Wuhan Municipal Health Commission. Prevention and control of new coronavirus pneumonia. Outbreak notification. http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/.shtml.Google Scholar
Xinhuanet. New coronavirus infection pneumonia epidemic: human-to-human and medical personnel infections have been confirmed. http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2020-01/20/c1125487200.html. Accessed April 15, 2020.Google Scholar
Tencent. Ten o’clock today! Wuhan is closed! All exits from Han are temporarily closed until further notice. https://new.qq.com/omn/20200123/20200123A02DXS00.html. Accessed March 23, 2020.Google Scholar
Wuhan Municipal Health Commission. Prevention and control of new coronavirus pneumonia. Prevention and Control Dynamics. http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2020020509410. Accessed March 23, 2020.Google Scholar
Wuhan Municipal Health Commission. Prevention and control of new coronavirus pneumonia. Prevention and Control Dynamics. http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2020031110051. Accessed April 15, 2020.Google Scholar
Wuhan Municipal Health Commission. Home. Prevention and control of new coronavirus pneumonia. Prevention and Control Dynamics. http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/. Accessed April 25, 2020.Google Scholar
Wuhan Municipal Health Commission. Home. Prevention and control of new coronavirus pneumonia. Notice. http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/ztzl28/fk/tzgg/2020004/t20200431197130.shtml. Accessed March 26, 2020.Google Scholar
Wuhan Municipal Health Commission. Prevention and control of new coronavirus pneumonia/Notice. http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2020021509576. Accessed March 26, 2020.Google Scholar
Wuhan Municipal Health Commission. Prevention and control of new coronavirus pneumonia/Notice. http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2020021309543. Accessed April 26, 2020.Google Scholar
Guancha Politics. Bai Yansong asked Zhong Nanshan: what is the situation of the new type of coronavirus pneumonia? https://www.guancha.cn/politics/2020_01_21_532437.shtml. Accessed March 13, 2020.Google Scholar
Wuhan State Council. State Council executive meeting. http://www.gov.cn/guowuyuan/cwhy/20200120c03/index.htm. Accessed March 23, 2020.Google Scholar
National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China. Home. Prevention and control of new coronavirus pneumonia/Notice. http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/202001/dc9bee1eb2b44098b09661baec9ab4fc.shtml. Accessed April 13, 2020.Google Scholar
National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China. Home. Prevention and control of new coronavirus pneumonia/Notice. http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/202002/26fb16805f024382bff1de80c918368f.shtml. Accessed April 23, 2020.Google Scholar
Wuhan Municipal Health Commission. Prevention and control of new coronavirus pneumonia/Notice. http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2020021309543. Accessed April 25, 2020.Google Scholar
Wuhan Municipal Health Commission. Prevention and control of new coronavirus pneumonia/announcement. http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/list3rd/yes/803. Accessed March 26, 2020.Google Scholar
Hu, Z, Song, C, Xu, C, et al. Clinical characteristics of 24 asymptomatic infections with COVID-19 screened among close contacts in Nanjing, China. Sci China Life Sci. 2020; 1661-1664. doi: 10.1007/s11427-020-1661-4. [Epub ahead of print]. Accessed March 23, 2020.Google Scholar
Epidemiology Working Group for NCIP Epidemic Response, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2020;41(2):145-151. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2020.02.003 Google Scholar
Mizumoto, K, Kagaya, K, Zarebski, A, Chowell, G. Estimating the asymptomatic ratio of 2019 novel coronavirus onboard the Princess Cruises Ship. MedRxiv. 2020;10.1101/2020.02.20.20025866.Google Scholar
Nature News. Covert coronavirus infections could be seeding new outbreaks. doi:10.1038/d41586-020-00822-x. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00822-x. Accessed March 20, 2020.Google Scholar
Xinhua News Agency (Xinhuanet). Wuhan net-checking. http://m.xinhuanet.com/2020-02/17/.html. Accessed May 8, 2020.Google Scholar
National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China. New coronavirus pneumonia epidemic prevention and control. Prevention and Control Dynamics. http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/fkdt/202002/1fa99f55972740f681d47cde0d1b2522.shtml. Accessed April 15, 2020.Google Scholar
BBC News Chinese. Pneumonia outbreak. Does asymptomatic infection cause a second major outbreak? https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-52016649. Accessed March 29, 2020.Google Scholar
Xiaoxia, L, Liqiong, Z, Hui, D, et al. SARS-CoV-2 infection in children. N Engl J Med. 2020;382:1663-1665. doi: 10.1056/NEJMc2005073 Google Scholar
Riccardo, C, Martina, V, Licari, Amelia, et al. Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Infection in children and adolescents: a systematic review. JAMA Pediatr. doi: 10.1001/jamapediatrics.2020.1467 Google Scholar
Yi, X, Xufang, L, Bing, Z, et al. Brief communication: characteristics of pediatric SARS-CoV-2 infection and potential evidence for persistent fecal viral shedding. Nature Med. 2020;26:502C505.Google Scholar
Wuhan Municipal Health Commission. Prevention and control of new coronavirus pneumonia/announcement. http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2020021109510.Google Scholar
Sina News. The main battlefield of the epidemic: 48 days of designated hospitals in Wuhan. https://news.sina.cn/gn/2020-03-09/detail-iimxxstf7625588.d.html?pos=108 vt=4. Accessed April 15, 2020.Google Scholar
Biodiscover News. Biological exploration-observation. How contagious are asymptomatic people? The latest judgment of Academician Zhong Nanshan. http://m.biodiscover.com/news/celebrity/736251.html. Accessed April 8, 2020.Google Scholar
Wuhan Municipal Health Commission. Prevention and control of new coronavirus pneumonia. Prevention and Control Dynamics. http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2020012909252. Accessed March 23, 2020.Google Scholar
van den Driessche, P, Watmough, J. Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission. Math Biosci. 2002;180:29-48.Google ScholarPubMed
China News. Chinese disease control expert: new coronary pneumonia patients have been contagious two days before onset. https://m.chinanews.com/wap/detail/zw/gn/2020/02-22/9100652.shtml. Accessed February 22, 2020.Google Scholar
Diekmann, O, Heesterbeek, JAP, Metz, JAJ. On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio R0 in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations. J Math Biol. 1990;28:36.Google ScholarPubMed
Wuhan Government website. Statistical services. Statistical products. Statistical bulletins. http://tjj.wuhan.gov.cn/details.aspx?id=4368. Accessed March 26, 2020.Google Scholar
ScienceNet. Focusing on asymptomatic infections: how to prevent and control the “latent” SARS-CoV-2 virus? http://news.sciencenet.cn/htmlnews/2020/3/437622.shtm. Accessed March 29, 2020.Google Scholar
Xinhua News Agency (Xinhuanet). The average hospitalized patients in China was more than 9 days, and the average in Hubei Province was 20 days. http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2020-02/04/c1125530818.htm. Accessed March 29, 2020.Google Scholar
Zhou, F, Yu, T, Du, R, et al. Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study [published correction appears in Lancet. 2020 Mar 28;395(10229):1038]. Lancet. 2020;395(10229):1054-1062. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30566-3 Google Scholar
Expert Group on Prevention and Control of New Coronavirus Pneumonia of Chinese Preventive Medicine Association, Chinese Preventive Medicine Association. New understanding of epidemiological characteristics of new coronavirus pneumonia. Chin. J. Epidemiol. 2020;41(2):139-144.Google Scholar
Wuhan Municipal Health Commission. Prevention and control of new coronavirus pneumonia. Outbreak notification. http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2020020909483. Accessed March 29, 2020.Google Scholar
Wuhan Municipal Health Commission. One heart and one mind, resolutely win the battle for prevention and control of COVID-19. http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/ztzl/801.Google Scholar
National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China. Do our best to prevent epidemic of COVID-19. http://www.nhc.gov.cn;http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/xxgzbd/.shtml.Google Scholar

Save article to Kindle

To save this article to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Investigation on the Control of COVID-19 in Wuhan: Number of Infections Outside Hospitals and the Reproduction Number
Available formats
×

Save article to Dropbox

To save this article to your Dropbox account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you used this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your Dropbox account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Investigation on the Control of COVID-19 in Wuhan: Number of Infections Outside Hospitals and the Reproduction Number
Available formats
×

Save article to Google Drive

To save this article to your Google Drive account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you used this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your Google Drive account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Investigation on the Control of COVID-19 in Wuhan: Number of Infections Outside Hospitals and the Reproduction Number
Available formats
×
×

Reply to: Submit a response

Please enter your response.

Your details

Please enter a valid email address.

Conflicting interests

Do you have any conflicting interests? *