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The Employment Impact of China's WTO Accession. By A.S. Bhalla and Shufang Qiu. [London and New York: RoutledgeCurzon, 2004. xix+204 pp. £65.00. ISBN 0-415-30839-9.]

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 July 2004

Extract

This is a well-informed and readable study by two economic consultants. They argue that liberalization of trade in anticipation of and following China's accession to the WTO will result in short-term losses for a number of China's economic sectors, but in long-term net overall benefits. They expect “enormous problems related to the restructuring of SOEs and banking and other financial services, and also to the social effects such as unemployment and greater income inequalities.” Successive chapters treat agriculture, selected industries (textiles, garments, automobiles and household appliances) and the services of distribution, banking and insurance, and telecommunications. The authors summarize the main English-language and some Chinese studies on employment prospects in these sectors, and point out the weaknesses in their assumptions and models. Nevertheless, they are not afraid to add some forecasts of their own. Confronted with conflicting data (their statistical tables do not go beyond 1999) and opinions, often they refrain from drawing firm conclusions. The book ends, in a rather summary manner, with three scenarios of China's possible response to social destabilization owing to massive unemployment: non-compliance, devaluation and a shift to non-tradeables and the domestic market.

Type
Book Reviews
Copyright
© The China Quarterly, 2004

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