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Toward an Ever Looser Union? Investigating Diverging Trends in Public Opinion in Three Divided Societies

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 June 2023

Dieter Stiers Open the ORCID record for Dieter Stiers [Opens in a new window]  and
Marc Hooghe
Dieter Stiers*
Affiliation:
Centre for Political Science Research, Parkstraat 45 box 3602, 3000 Leuven, Belgium
Marc Hooghe
Affiliation:
Centre for Political Science Research, Parkstraat 45 box 3602, 3000 Leuven, Belgium
*
Corresponding author: Dieter Stiers; Email: dieter.stiers@kuleuven.be
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Abstract

The stability of divided societies is an important and recurring concern in political science research. It has been suggested that distinctive socialization processes in the different regions of divided societies will lead to diverging trends in public opinion. Therefore, we investigate trends in public opinion on key political issues and attitudes in three divided societies: Canada (Quebec), the United Kingdom (Scotland) and Spain (Catalonia). Using over two decades of survey data, we show that these distinct communities indeed have a particular ideological profile but also that there is no indication these differences become larger over time. In other words, we do not observe any evidence for an increasing lack of public opinion coherence in these divided societies. We conclude with some observations on why divergence could not be observed at the level of public opinion but might still be present at the level of party elites.

Résumé

Résumé

La stabilité des sociétés divisées est une préoccupation importante et récurrente dans la recherche en sciences politiques. Il a été suggéré que les processus de socialisation distincts dans les différentes régions des sociétés divisées conduiraient à des tendances divergentes dans l'opinion publique. C'est pourquoi nous étudions les tendances de l'opinion publique sur des questions et des attitudes politiques clés dans trois sociétés divisées : le Canada (Québec), le Royaume-Uni (Écosse) et l'Espagne (Catalogne).

En utilisant plus de deux décennies de données d'enquête, nous montrons que ces communautés distinctes ont en effet un profil idéologique particulier, mais que rien n'indique que ces différences s'accentuent avec le temps. À cet égard, nous n'observons aucune donnée probante d'un manque croissant de cohérence de l'opinion publique dans ces sociétés divisées. Nous concluons par quelques observations sur les raisons pour lesquelles la divergence n'a pu être observée au niveau de l'opinion publique, mais pourrait encore être présente au niveau des élites des partis.

Keywords

divided societiespublic opinionCanadaUnited KingdomSpainSociétés diviséesopinion publiqueCanadaRoyaume-UniEspagne
Type
Research Article/Étude originale
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 56 , Issue 3 , September 2023 , pp. 681 - 697
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Canadian Political Science Association (l’Association canadienne de science politique) and/et la Société québécoise de science politique

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