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Counting the Seven Weeks War: Dyads, Disputes and Balances of Power

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 July 2005

William Moul
William Moul
Affiliation:
University of Waterloo
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Abstract

Abstract. The usual quantitative study of inter-state war and peace tallies observations on hundreds, sometimes thousands, of dyads or pairs of states. These observations miss elementary features of inter-state relations that should be examined when testing Realist explanations of war and peace. The way in which three prominent studies (Bremer, 1992; Bueno de Mesquita, 1981; 1985) chose to count the Seven Weeks War dramatically reveals the theoretical difficulties when tallying dyads. Re-analyses of these studies demonstrate the sensitivity of the results to particulars of 1866 Germany and, more importantly, illustrate the merits of analyzing the dispute rather than the state dyad or the state-dyad year.

Résumé. L'étude quantitative des périodes de guerre et de paix entre États comptabilise des observations relatives à des centaines, parfois des milliers de dyades ou paires d'États. Ces observations ne prennent pas en compte certaines caractéristiques élémentaires des relations entre États qui devraient pourtant être examinées lorsque l'on teste les théories réalistes expliquant guerre et paix. La manière dont trois études reconnues (Bremer, 1992; Bueno de Mesquita, 1981; 1985) ont choisi de comptabiliser la guerre des Sept Semaines révèle de manière éclatante les difficultés théoriques dans la comptabilisation des dyades d'états. De nouvelles analyses de ces études ont démontré la sensibilité des résultats aux caractéristiques de l'Allemagne de 1866, mais soulignent surtout les mérites de l'analyse des disputes par rapport à l'analyse des dyades d'États ou des dyades d'États annuelles.

Type
Research Article
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 38 , Issue 1 , March 2005 , pp. 153 - 174
Copyright
© 2005 Cambridge University Press

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