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Voting in a Provincial General Election and a Federal by-Election: A Constituency Study of Saskatoon City*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 November 2014

John C. Courtney  and
David E. Smith
John C. Courtney
Affiliation:
University of Saskatchewan
David E. Smith
Affiliation:
University of Saskatchewan
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Extract

Previous studies have noted that Canadians tend to support one political party at the provincial level of government and another party at the federal level, yet no attempt has been made to discover which voters switch their electoral support. This study is concerned with an examination of one electoral district as both a federal and a provincial constituency in two 1964 elections to determine (a) the nature and degree of vote switching from one election at one level of government to a second election at another level and (b) the characteristics of the people who switched their votes.

The city of Saskatoon was selected for the study for two closely interrelated reasons. First, two elections were held remarkably close together in time: a provincial general election on April 22, 1964, followed by a federal by-election on June 22, 1964. Second, Saskatoon had returned CCF members to the provincial legislature since 1944, but had elected as its member of parliament the Progressive-Conservative candidate since 1957. The Conservative candidates had a poor record in provincial elections, generally running a modest third, while in federal elections the party's candidate polled more votes than his combined opposition in 1958, 1962, and 1963. As Table I indicates the voters of Saskatoon had on six occasions in the period from 1956 to 1963 consistently supported the CCF provincially and the Progressive-Conservatives federally. The 1964 elections followed basically the same pattern The main differences were that provincially the Liberals and Progressive-Conservatives improved their position considerably in comparison with past elections (with the Liberals electing one member in the five-member district), while federally the Progressive-Conservative vote dropped substantially with a lower voter turn-out than had been the case in recent federal elections (see Table II).

L’etude de la circonscription electorale de la ville de saskatoon

L’Etude de la Circonscription Electorale de la Ville de Saskatoon

Dans cette étude, on a examiné l'évolution du vote d'une élection provinciale (22 avril 1964) à une élection complémentaire fédérale (22 juin 1964) dans la circonscription urbaine de Saskatoon. L'étude a été faite au moyen d'un questionnaire transmis par la poste et de l'analyse de données électorales. D'après les 1075 questionnaires qui nous ont été retournés et qui sont utilisés dans cette étude, il existe une association entre le parti, la direction du vote et le niveau électoral. Le degré d'association a varié suivant le parti et l'élection: près de 30 pour cent des voteurs CCF-NDP à l'échelon provincial ont changé leur vote au moment de l'élection fédérale complémentaire, tandis que 10 pour cent des libéraux et 13 pour cent des progressistes-conservateurs ont fait de même. Le candidat fédéral qui a bénéficié le plus du changement d'allégeance a été le candidat progressiste-conservateur; par comparaison, le changement de vote n'a guère affecté le candidat libéral.

L'examen des questionnaires indique clairement que les hommes ont changé de parti en moins grand nombre que les femmes, que c'est parmi les groupes des services, du transport et des administrateurs que la division du vote fut la plus rare, tandis qu'elle fut la plus fréquente parmi les groupes des professionnels, des vendeurs et des employés de bureau. Parmi les catégories religieuses ayant plus de vingt-cinq répondants, la tendance la plus forte à changer de parti s'est manifestée chez les voteurs luthériens et mennonites et la moins forte, chez les catholiques et les presbytériens. Le changement de parti augmente avec la durée de résidence à Saskatoon.

Le changement de parti a été le plus élevé chez les voteurs les plus âgés (65 ans et plus), mais il a été le plus faible pour le groupe d'âge de 55 à 64 ans. Il a été le plus élevé parmi les moins instruits de même que chez ceux qui ont trois années d'université ou plus, tandis qu'il a été le plus faible chez ceux qui ont une ou deux années d'université.

Les raisons qui ont été avancées par les répondants pour avoir voté comme ils l'ont fait peuvent ne pas constituer l'explication la plus faible des motivations des voteurs, mais elles méritent quand même considération. La politique du parti a été la principale raison qu'ont invoquée les nouveaux partisans des progressistes-conservateurs fédéraux; pourtant 80 pour cent des nouveaux partisans des libéraux fédéraux, parmi ceux qui ont exprimé une opinion, donnent pour unique raison de leur vote leur préférence du candidat. Ces résultats suggèrent que dans le cas du candidat progressiste-conservateur, c'est le parti fédéral qui est à l'origine de son succès, tandis que dans celui du candidat libéral, c'est sa popularité locale qui lui a gagné la plupart des votes de ses nouveaux partisans.

Type
Research Article
Information
Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science/Revue canadienne de economiques et science politique , Volume 32 , Issue 3 , August 1966 , pp. 338 - 353
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association 1966

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Footnotes

*

The authors wish to acknowledge and express their appreciation for the financial assistance received from the President's Humanities and Social Science Fund, University of Saskatchewan, and from Brandon College.

References

1 Scarrow, Howard A., “Federal-Provincial Voting Patterns in Canada,” this Journal, XXVI (05, 1960), 289–298 Google Scholar, passim, and Wrong, Dennis H., “The Pattern of Party Voting in Canada,” Public Opinion Quarterly, XXI (Summer, 1957), 252 and 255.Google Scholar

2 The federal by-election was occasioned by the death of Henry Frank Jones, MP for Saskatoon City from 1957 to 1964. It is recognized that a by-election vote may not necessarily be an accurate reflection of how a constituency would vote in a general election, as timing, issues, and personalities may account for different voter attitudes and reactions. See Scarrow, Howard A., “By-elections and Public Opinion in Canada,” Public Opinion Quarterly, XXV (Spring, 1961), 79–91 CrossRefGoogle Scholar, and Duran, Henryt, “Indirect Influences on Voting Behaviour,” Polls, 1 (Spring, 1965), 3–4.Google Scholar None the less, the two elections of 1964 in Saskatoon permitted an analysis of federal as opposed to provincial voting patterns, the most important feature for this particular study.

3 The 53,190 would, as with all provincial electoral lists in Saskatchewan, include a certain number of people eligible to vote provincially but not federally; 18–20 year olds are eligible to vote in Saskatchewan provincial elections but not in federal elections. Of the 61,075 residents of Saskatoon at the time of the 1961 census who were 18 years of age or more, 4323 (7.08 per cent) were in the 18–20 years of age category. Assuming a similar percentage for the provincial constituency in 1964 as obtained in the census area in 1961, then 3766 of the 53,190 would have been eligible to have voted in the provincial but not the federal election.

4 Because of the summer vacation it was decided to allow slightly in excess of two months for the return of the questionnaires.

5 Dorninion Bureau of Statistics, Census of Canada, 1961, “Population and Housing Characteristics by Census Tracts, Saskatoon,” Bulletin CT-19, 29-3-1963.Google Scholar

6 See, for example, Franzen, Baymond and Lazarsfeld, Paul F., “Mail Questionnaire as a Research Problem,” Journal of Psychology, XX (10, 1945), 294.Google Scholar

7 In this study perfect voter articulation would be represented by all voters who participated in the two elections and supported the same political party on both occasions. Less than perfect voter articulation would be represented by voters who did not participate in one of the two elections or, alternatively, who did participate in the two elections but did not support the same party on both occasions. Since this study is concerned with examining voting habits of people who voted in two elections, the elimination of non-participants in either or both elections was necessary.

8 Of the 1075 returns investigated 51.1 per cent were from women, 48.9 per cent from men. These percentages compare favourably with the Saskatoon census of 1961 which showed 50.98 per cent of the population to be female, 49.02 per cent male.

9 For comparative purposes, the following table lists the reasons given by the non-split voters, expressed in percentages: