Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-x4r87 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-26T18:25:38.929Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Converging evidence supports fuzzy-trace theory's nested sets hypothesis, but not the frequency hypothesis

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 October 2007

Valerie F. Reyna
Affiliation:
Departments of Human Development, Psychology, and Cognitive Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853
Britain Mills
Affiliation:
Department of Human Development, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853. vr53@cornell.edubam64@cornell.eduhttp://www.human.cornell.edu/che/HD/reyna/index.cfm

Abstract

Evidence favors the nested sets hypothesis, introduced by fuzzy-trace theory (FTT) in the 1990s to explain “class-inclusion” effects and extended to many tasks, including conjunction fallacy, syllogistic reasoning, and base-rate effects (e.g., Brainerd & Reyna 1990; Reyna 1991; 2004; Reyna & Adam 2003; Reyna & Brainerd 1995). Crucial differences in mechanisms distinguish the FTT and Barbey & Sloman (B&S) accounts, but both contrast with frequency predictions (see Reyna & Brainerd, in press).

Type
Open Peer Commentary
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2007

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Adam, M. B. & Reyna, V. F. (2005) Coherence and correspondence criteria for rationality: Experts' estimation of risks of sexually transmitted infections. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 18(3):169–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bauer, M. I. & Johnson-Laird, P. N. (1993) How diagrams can improve reasoning. Psychological Science 4:372–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brainerd, C. J. & Reyna, V. F. (1990) Inclusion illusions: Fuzzy-trace theory and perceptual salience effects in cognitive development. Developmental Review 10:365403.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brainerd, C. J. & Reyna, V. F. (1995) Autosuggestibility in memory development. Cognitive Psychology 28:65101.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Girotto, V. & Gonzalez, M. (2001) Solving probabilistic and statistical problems: A matter of information structure and question form. Cognition 78:247–76.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Girotto, V. & Gonzalez, M. (in press) Children's understanding of posterior probability. Cognition. DOI:10.1016/j.cognition.2007.02.005.Google Scholar
Lloyd, F. J. & Reyna, V. F. (2001) A web exercise in evidence-based medicine using cognitive theory. Journal of General Internal Medicine 16(2):9499.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Lloyd, F., Reyna, V. F. & Whalen, P. (2001) Accuracy and ambiguity in counseling patients about genetic risk. Archives of Internal Medicine 161:2411–13.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Reyna, V. F. (1991) Class inclusion, the conjunction fallacy, and other cognitive illusions. Developmental Review 11:317–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reyna, V. F. (1992) Reasoning, remembering, and their relationship: Social, cognitive, and developmental issues. In: Development of long-term retention, ed. Howe, M. L., Brainerd, C. J. & Reyna, V. F., pp. 103–27. Springer-Verlag.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reyna, V. F. (2004) How people make decisions that involve risk. A dual-processes approach. Current Directions in Psychological Science 13:6066.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reyna, V. F. & Adam, M. B. (2003) Fuzzy-trace theory, risk communication, and product labeling in sexually transmitted diseases. Risk Analysis 23:325–42.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Reyna, V. F. & Brainerd, C. J. (1993) Fuzzy memory and mathematics in the classroom. In: Memory in everyday life, ed. Davies, G. M. & Logie, R. H., pp. 91119. North Holland Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reyna, V. F. & Brainerd, C. J. (1994) The origins of probability judgment: A review of data and theories. In: Subjective probability, ed. Wright, G. & Ayton, P., pp. 239–72. Wiley.Google Scholar
Reyna, V. F. & Brainerd, C. J. (1995) Fuzzy-trace theory: An interim synthesis. Learning and Individual Differences 7:175.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reyna, V. F. & Brainerd, C. J. (in press) Numeracy, ratio bias, and denominator neglect in judgments of risk and probability. Learning and Individual Differences.Google Scholar
Reyna, V. F. & Ellis, S. C. (1994) Fuzzy-trace theory and framing effects in children's risky decision making. Psychological Science 5:275–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reyna, V. F. & Farley, F. (2006) Risk and rationality in adolescent decision-making: Implications for theory, practice, and public policy. Psychological Science in the Public Interest 7(1):144.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Reyna, V. F., Holliday, R. & Marche, T. (2002) Explaining the development of false memories. Developmental Review 22:436–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reyna, V. F. & Lloyd, F. (2006) Physician decision making and cardiac risk: Effects of knowledge, risk perception, risk tolerance, and fuzzy processing. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied 12:179–95.Google ScholarPubMed
Reyna, V. F., Lloyd, F. J. & Brainerd, C. J. (2003) Memory, development, and rationality: An integrative theory of judgment and decision-making. In: Emerging perspectives on judgment and decision research, ed. Schneider, S. & Shanteau, J., pp. 201–45. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reyna, V. F., Lloyd, F. & Whalen, P. (2001) Genetic testing and medical decision making. Archives of Internal Medicine 161:2406–408.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Reyna, V. F., Mills, B. A., Estrada, S. M. & Brainerd, C. J. (2006) False memory in children: Data, theory, and legal implications. In: The handbook of eyewitness psychology: Memory for events, ed. Toglia, M. P., Read, J. D., Ross, D. F. & Lindsay, R. C. L., pp. 473510. Erlbaum.Google Scholar
Sloman, S. A., Over, D. E., Slovak, L. & Stibel, J. M. (2003) Frequency illusions and other fallacies. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 91:296309.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yamagishi, K. (2003) Facilitating normative judgments of conditional probability: Frequency or nested sets? Experimental Psychology 50:97106.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed