Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-t5pn6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-23T06:24:49.413Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Farmer Forward Pricing Behavior: Evidence from Marketing Clubs

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 September 2016

Kevin McNew
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics, Montana State University
Wesley N. Musser
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Maryland
Get access

Abstract

Numerous studies have investigated how farmers should use forward pricing markets, but only limited research exists on how farmers actually use these markets. This study relies on data from a real-time forward pricing game employed by Maryland grain marketing clubs from 1994 through 1998. Hypotheses are tested regarding the consistency of farmer behavior with the research literature on hedging. Findings indicate that farmers do not achieve price enhancement, a result consistent with the efficient market hypothesis. However, pricing behavior does not conform to the implications of efficient market models in a number of respects, suggesting farmers may form different expectations than those conveyed by forward prices.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © 2002 Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Anderson, K. B., and Mapp, H. P. (1996). “Risk Management Programs in Extension.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 21, 3138.Google Scholar
Bertoli, R., Zuluaf, C. R., Irwin, S. H., Jackson, T. E., and Good, D. L. (1999, August). “The Marketing Style of Advisory Services for Corn and Soybeans in 1995.” AgMAS Project Research Report No. 1999–02, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.Google Scholar
Black, F. (1976). “The Pricing of Commodity Contracts.” Journal of Financial Economics 3, 167179.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brorsen, B. W. (1995). “Optimal Hedge Ratios with Risk-Neutral Producers and Nonlinear Borrowing CostsAmerican Journal of Agricultural Economics 77, 174181.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brorsen, B. W., and Irwin, S. H. (1996). “Improving the Relevance of Research on Price Forecasting and Marketing Strategies.” Agricultural and Resource Economics Review 25, 6875.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Collins, R. A. (1997). “Toward a Positive Economic Theory of Hedging.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 79, 488499.Google Scholar
Fackler, P. L., and McNew, K. (1998). “Experimental Markets Using the Electronic Market Place (EMP).” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 30, 151162.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fama, E., and French, K. (1987). “Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums, and the Theory of Storage.” Journal of Business 60, 5573.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goodwin, B. K., and Schroeder, T. C. (1994). “Human Capital, Producer Education Programs, and the Adoption of Forward-Pricing Methods.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 76, 936947.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grant, D. (1985). “Theory of the Firm with Joint Price and Output Risk and a Forward Market.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 67, 630635.Google Scholar
Irwin, S. H., Good, D. L., Martines-Filho, J., and Jackson, T. E. (2000, November). “Do Agricultural Market Advisory Services Beat the Market? Evidence from the Corn and Soybean Markets over 1995–1998.” AgMAS Project Research Report No. 2000–03, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.Google Scholar
Just, R. E., and Rausser, G. C. (1981). “Commodity Price Forecasting with Large-Scale Econometric Models and the Futures Market.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 63, 197208.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahl, K. H. (1983). “Determination of the Recommended Hedging Ratio.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 65, 603605.Google Scholar
Kenyon, D. E. (2001). “Producer Ability to Forecast Harvest Corn and Soybean Prices.” Review of Agricultural Economics 23, 151162.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lapan, H. E., Moschini, G., and Hanson, S. D. (1991). “Production, Hedging, and Speculative Decisions with Options and Futures Markets.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 73, 6674.Google Scholar
Lence, S. H. (1996). “Relaxing the Assumptions of Minimum-Variance Hedging.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 21, 3955.Google Scholar
McNew, K. (1996). “Testing the Success of the Iowa Corn Yield Contract.” In Chicago Board of Trade Spring Research Seminar Proceedings (pp. 1224). Chicago: CBOT.Google Scholar
McNew, K., and Fackler, P. L. (1994). “Non-constant Optimal Hedge Ratio Estimation and Nested Hypotheses Tests.” Journal of Futures Markets 14, 619635.Google Scholar
Myers, R. J., and Thompson, S. R. (1989). “Generalized Optimal Hedge Ratio Estimation.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 71, 858868.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Parcell, J., Schroeder, T., Kastens, T., and Dhuyvetter, K. (1998, April 20–21). “Perceptions of Marketing Efficiency and Strategies: Extension vs. Research Marketing Economists” Paper presented at the annual NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management, Chicago, IL.Google Scholar
Patrick, G. F., Musser, W. N., and Eckman, D. T. (1998). “Forward Marketing Practices and Attitudes of Large-Scale Mid-western Grain Producers.” Review of Agricultural Economics 20, 3853.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peck, A. E. (1975). “Hedging and Income Stability: Concepts, Implications, and an Example.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 57, 410419.Google Scholar
Pennings, J., Good, D. L., Irwin, S. H., and Gomez, J. K. (2001, March). “The Role of Market Advisory Services in Crop Marketing and Risk Management: A Preliminary Report of Survey Results.” AgMAS Project Research Report No. 2001–02, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Purcell, W. D., and Koontz, S. R. (1999). Agricultural Futures and Options, 2nd edition. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice-Hall. Google Scholar
Rausser, G. C., and Carter, C. (1983). “Futures Market Efficiency in the Soybean Complex.” Review of Economics and Statistics 65, 469478.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sakong, Y., Hayes, D. J., and Hallam, A. (1993). “Hedging Production Risk with Options.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 75, 408415.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
U.S. Department of Agriculture. (1994–1998). World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Monthly report, USDA/World Agricultural Outlook Board, Washington, DC. Various monthly issues.Google Scholar
Wisner, R. N., Blue, E. N., and Baldwin, E. D. (1998). “Pre-harvest Marketing Strategies Increase Net Returns for Corn and Soybean Growers.” Review of Agricultural Economics 20, 288307.Google Scholar
Zulauf, C. R., and Irwin, S. H. (1998). “Marketing Efficiency and Marketing to Enhance Income of Crop Producers.” Review of Agricultural Economics 20, 308331.Google Scholar