In the coming decades, the broad outline of Kenyan development is quite likely to duplicate the Mexican experience of industrial and commercial progress for a minority combined with economic stagnation for the majority. While there are obvious differences in culture, history, and geography, there are basic similarities in industrialization strategy, agricultural structure, urban expansion, and population growth rate. A continuation of the current industrial, financial, and agricultural strategies, and an extrapolation of other variables along certain key paths, will almost surely lead Kenya to the same form of dualistic transformation that has gradually engulfed Mexico over the course of three decades. A rather important point which emerges from the following analysis is that only by a significant reduction in the population growth rate can that result be avoided.

An economic transformation is many faceted, involving technological, institutional, and cultural changes as well as significant shifts in the product mix. From an economic standpoint, an essential element of transformation is a significant growth in labor productivity which, in turn, is translated into a rising level of income per capita. This improvement in average product per worker largely involves the transfer of labor from traditional, low productivity sectors into those which spearhead modernization. This facet of economic transformation is referred to as labor force transformation and is generally understood to be a goal of economic development.