We consider a stochastic model for the spread of an epidemic amongst a population split into m groups, in which infectives move among the groups and contact susceptibles at a rate which depends upon the infective's original group, its current group, and the group of the susceptible. The distributions of total size and total area under the trajectory of infectives for such epidemics are analysed. We derive exact results in terms of multivariate Gontcharoff polynomials by treating our model as a multitype collective Reed–Frost process and slightly adapting the results of Picard and Lefèvre (1990). We also derive asymptotic results, as each of the group sizes becomes large, by generalising the method of Scalia-Tomba (1985), (1990).

The supercritical Markov branching process is examined in the case where the minimal version of the process has strictly substochastic transition laws. This provides a nice example of the general construction theory for discrete-state Markov processes.

Entrance laws corresponding to the minimal process are characterised. Limit properties of the processes constructed from these entrance laws are examined. All such processes which are honest and cannot hit zero are ergodic. Otherwise these processes are λ-positive and limit theorems conditional on not having left the positive states are given.

A connection is made with recent work on the general construction problem when a λ-subinvariant measure is given. The case where immigration is allowed is mentioned.

The tail behaviour of the limit of the normalized population size in the simple supercritical branching process, W, is studied. Most of the results concern those cases when a tail of the distribution function of W decays exponentially quickly. In essence, knowledge of the behaviour of transforms can be combined with some ‘large-deviation' theory to get detailed information on the oscillation of the distribution function of W near zero or at infinity. In particular we show how an old result of Harris (1948) on the asymptotics of the moment-generating function of W translates to tail behaviour.

A measure-valued diffusion approximation to a two-level branching structure was introduced in Dawson and Hochberg (1991) where it was shown that conditioned on non-extinction at time t, and appropriately rescaled, the process converges as t → ∞to a non-trivial limiting distribution. Here we discuss a different approach to conditioning on non-extinction (popular in one-level branching) and relate the two limiting distributions.

Several queueing processes may be modeled as random walks on a multidimensional grid. In this paper the equilibrium distribution for the case of a two-dimensional grid is considered. In previous research it has been shown that for some two-dimensional random walks the equilibrium distribution has the form of an infinite series of products of powers which can be constructed with a compensation procedure. The object of the present paper is to investigate under which conditions such an elegant solution exists and may be found with a compensation approach. The conditions can be easily formulated in terms of the random behaviour in the inner area and the drift on the boundaries.

A manpower system of constant size, controlled by recruitment, is described by a partially stochastic model in which there are fixed promotion rates, no demotions and stochastic wastage. The geometric-probabilistic relationship is examined for the attainability after one step and after two steps.

In this paper, optimal stopping problems for semi-Markov processes are studied in a fairly general setting. In such a process transitions are made from state to state in accordance with a Markov chain, but the amount of time spent in each state is random. The times spent in each state follow a general renewal process. They may depend on the present state as well as on the state into which the next transition is made.

Our goal is to maximize the expected net return, which is given as a function of the state at time t minus some cost function. Discounting may or may not be considered. The main theorems (Theorems 3.5 and 3.11) are expressions for the optimal stopping time in the undiscounted and discounted case. These theorems generalize results of Zuckerman [16] and Boshuizen and Gouweleeuw [3]. Applications are given in various special cases.

The results developed in this paper can also be applied to semi-Markov shock models, as considered in Taylor [13], Feldman [6] and Zuckerman [15].

The accuracy of the Poisson approximation to the distribution of the numbers of large and small m-spacings, when n points are placed at random on the circle, was analysed using the Stein–Chen method in Barbour et al. (1992b). The Poisson approximation for m≧2 was found not to be as good as for 1-spacings. In this paper, rates of approximation of these distributions to suitable compound Poisson distributions are worked out, using the CP–Stein–Chen method and an appropriate coupling argument. The rates are better than for Poisson approximation for m≧2, and are of order O((log n)2/n) for large m-spacings and of order O(1/n) for small m-spacings, for any fixed m≧2, if the expected number of spacings is held constant as n → ∞.

We consider a controlled i.i.d. process, where several i.i.d. sources are sampled sequentially. At each time instant, a controller determines from which source to obtain the next sample. Any causal sampling policy, possibly history-dependent, may be employed. The purpose is to characterize the extremal large deviations of the sample mean, namely to obtain asymptotic rate bounds (similar to and extending Cramér's theorem) which hold uniformly over all sampling policies. Lower and upper bounds are obtained, and it is shown that in many (but not all) cases stationary sampling policies are sufficient to obtain the extremal large deviations rates. These results are applied to a hypothesis testing problem, where data samples may be sequentially chosen from several i.i.d. sources (representing different types of experiments). The analysis provides asymptotic estimates for the error probabilities, corresponding both to optimal and to worst-case sampling policies.

Stochastic majorization is a tool that has been used in many areas of probability and statistics (such as multivariate statistical analysis, queueing theory and reliability theory) in order to obtain useful bounds and inequalities. In this paper we study the relations among several notions of stochastic majorization and stochastic convexity and obtain sufficient (and sometimes necessary) conditions which imply some of these notions. Extensions and generalizations of several results in the literature are obtained. Some examples and applications regarding stochastic comparisons of order statistics are also presented in order to illustrate the results of the paper.

Assembly of systems to maximize reliability when certain components of the systems can be bolstered in different ways is an important theme in reliability theory. This is done under assumptions of various stochastic orderings among the lifetimes of the components and the spares used to bolster them. The powerful techniques of Schur and arrangement increasing functions are used in this paper to pinpoint optimal allocation results in different settings involving active and standby redundancy allocation, minimal repair and shock-threshold models.

The reliability of many stochastic repairable systems depends on several characteristics that are time dependent. In this paper, we develop general repair models for a repairable system by using auxiliary stochastic processes which describe physical characteristics of the system and derive various properties of resulting models. We also obtain an inference procedure to assess the number of failures and expected number of failures for our proposed models by observing auxiliary processes.

Clearly, our inference procedure is different from the traditional approach, where successive times of occurrence of failures are observed.

Two devices are subjected to common shocks arriving according to two identical counting processes. Let and denote the probability of surviving k shocks for the first and the second device, respectively. We find conditions on the discrete distributions and in order to obtain the failure rate order (FR), the likelihood ratio order (LR) and the mean residual order (MR) between the random lifetimes of the two devices. We also obtain sufficient conditions under which the above mentioned relations between the discrete distributions are verified in some cumulative damage shock models.

We analyze a class of stochastic and dynamic vehicle routing problems in which demands arrive randomly over time and the objective is minimizing waiting time. In our previous work ([6], [7]), we analyzed this problem for the case of uniformly distributed demand locations and Poisson arrivals. In this paper, using quite different techniques, we are able to extend our results to the more realistic case where demand locations have an arbitrary continuous distribution and arrivals follow only a general renewal process. Further, we improve significantly the best known lower bounds for this class of problems and construct policies that are provably within a small constant factor relative to the optimal solution. We show that the leading behavior of the optimal system time has a particularly simple form that offers important structural insight into the behavior of the system. Moreover, by distinguishing two classes of policies our analysis shows an interesting dependence of the system performance on the demand distribution.

In this paper we study scheduling problems of multiclass customers on identical parallel processors. A new type of arrival process, called a Markov decision arrival process, is introduced. This arrival process can be controlled and allows for an indirect dependence on the numbers of customers in the queues. As a special case we show the optimality of LEPT and the µc-rule in the last node of a controlled tandem network for various cost structures. A unifying proof using dynamic programming is given.

This paper is concerned with the computation of asymptotic blocking probabilities for a generalized Erlangian system which results when M independent Poisson streams of traffic with rates access a trunk group of C circuits with traffic from stream k requiring Ak circuits which are simultaneously held and released after a time which is randomly distributed with unit mean and independent of earlier arrivals and holding times. A call from stream k is lost if on arrival less than Ak circuits are available. Although exact expressions for the blocking probabilities are known, their computation is unwieldy for even moderate-sized switches. It is shown that as the size of the switch increases in that both the traffic rates and trunk capacity are scaled together, simple asymptotic expressions for the blocking probabilities are obtained. In particular the expression is different for light, moderate and heavy loads. The approach is via exponential centering and large deviations and provides a unified framework for the analysis.

Particles may be removed from a lattice by murder, coalescence, mutual annihilation and simple death. If the particle system is not to die out, the removed particles must be replaced by births. This letter shows that coalescence can be counteracted by arbitrarily small birth-rates and contrasts this with the situations for annihilation and pure death where there are critical phenomena. The problem is unresolved for murder.