Introduction

Peak Oil is the point in time when the maximum production of oil in the world is reached. After that point is reached, oil supply can no longer grow, it remains stable for a few years at best, and typically starts to fall unrelentingly. It is often confused with oil depletion and running out of oil altogether. Shell geophysicist M. King Hubbert in the 1950s was the first to figure out why this phenomena of an oil field's production rising, peaking, and declining occurs the way it does. Thanks to his in-depth understanding of the physics of oil production and observations of past discoveries and production levels, he was able to predict future production trends.67 Hubbert's first prediction, from 1956, that US easyto- extract conventional oil production would peak around 1970, turned out to be accurate.[1] He was vindicated only long after the fact, as attacks by US government bodies and geologists on his prediction continued several years after the peak had occurred. Even the United States Geological Survey in 1974 still published reports stating that production would grow to 20 million barrels per day by 1985 after a few years of declining production (in reality in 1985 production has declined to 9 million barrels per day). [2] US oil production after the peak continued to decline with smaller peaks and declines until 2008, after which it started to grow again.