Akaike, Hirotogu. 1973. “Information Theory and the Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle.” Paper read at 2nd International Symposium on Information Theory, at Budapest.
Albright, Madeleine K. 2000. “Remarks by Madeleine K. Albright on American-Iranian Relations.” Washington, DC: U.S. Department of State.
Aldrich, John 1983. “A Downsian Spatial Model with Party Activism.” American Political Science Review 77 (4):974–90.
Althaus, Scott L., and Devon M. Largio. 2004. “When Osama Became Saddam: Origins and Consequences of the Change in America's Public Enemy #1.” PS: Political Science and Politics 37 (4):795–99.
Amanpour, Christiane. 1998. “Transcript of Interview with Iranian President Mohammed Khatami.” Cable News Network, January 7.
Arango, Tim, and Michael S. Schmidt. 2011. “Last Convoy of American Troops Leave Iraq.” New York Times, December 18.
Aristotle. 2009. Nicomachean Ethics. New York: World Library Classics.
Arrow, Kenneth J. 1951. Social Choice and Individual Values. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
Associated Press. 2009. “AP Exclusive: Secret Tally Has 87,215 Iraqis Dead.” Boston Herald, April 23.
Austin-Smith, David, and Jeffrey Banks. 1988. “Elections, Coalitions, and Legislative Outcomes.” American Political Science Review 82 (2):405–22.
Bache, Benjamin Franklin. In Aurora, ed. B. F. Bache. Philadelphia.
Bartels, Larry M. 2002. “Beyond the Running Tally: Partisan Bias in Political Perceptions.” Political Behavior 24 (2):117–50.
Baum, Matthew A. 2004. “Going Private: Public Opinion, Presidential Rhetoric, and the Domestic Politics of Audience Costs in U.S. Foreign Policy Crises.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (5):603–31.
Baxter, Sarah. 2007. “Powell Tried to Talk Bush Out of War.” The Sunday Times, July 8.
BBC News. 2005. “White House Denies Bush God Claim.” BBC News, October 6.
BBC Two. 2005. “Program 3: Sharon (2003–2005).” In Elusive Peace. London: BBC.
BBC World Service. 2007. “World View of US Role Goes from Bad to Worse.” London: BBC World Service.
Beck, Nathaniel. 1991. “The Illusion of Cycles in International Relations.” International Studies Quarterly 35 (2):455–76.
Belasco, Amy. 2011. “The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11.” Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service.
Bennett, W. Lance. 1990. “Toward a Theory of Press-State Relations in the United States.” Journal of Communication 40 (2):103–25.
Berelson, Bernard R., Paul F. Lazarsfeld, and William N. McPhee. 1954. Voting: A Study of Public Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Beschloss, Michael. 2007. Presidential Courage: Brave Leaders and How They Changed America 1789–1989. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Bilmes, Linda, and Joseph Stiglitz. 2006. “The Economic Costs of the Iraq War: An Appraisal Three Years after the Beginning of the Conflict.” Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Blumenthal, Sidney. 1982. The Permanent Campaign. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Bond, Doug, Joe Bond, Churl Oh, J. Craig Jenkins, and Charles Lewis Taylor. 2003. “Integrated Data for Events Analysis (IDEA): An Events Typology for Automated Events Data Development.” Peace Research 40 (6):733–45.
Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M., David C. Kimball, Scott R. Meinke, and Katherine Tate. 2003. “The Effects of Political Representation on the Electoral Advantages of House Incumbents.” Political Research Quarterly 56 (3):259–70.
Brace, Paul, and Barbara Hinckley. 1992. Follow the Leader: Opinion Polls and Modern Presidencies. New York: Basic Books.
Brody, Richard A. 1991. Assessing the President: The Media, Elite Opinion, and Public Support. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
Brody, Richard A., and Benjamin I. Page. 1975. “The Impact of Events on Presidential Popularity: The Johnson and Nixon Administrations.” In Perspectives on the Presidency, ed. A. Wildavsky. Boston: Little, Brown.
Brownlie, Ian. 2008. Principles of Public International Law. New York: Oxford University Press.
Bullock, John G. 2009. “Partisan Bias and the Bayesian Ideal in the Study of Public Opinion.” Journal of Politics 71 (3):1109–24.
Burke, Edmund.
1774. “Speech to the Electors of Bristol.” In
The Works of the Right Honorable Edmund Burke. Available at the Project Gutenberg Web site:
http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/15198.
Bush, George W. 2010. Decision Points. New York: Crown.
Caballero, R. J. 1991. “Earnings Uncertainty and Aggregate Wealth Accumulation.” American Economic Review 81 (4):859–71.
Cameron, A. Colin, and Pravin K. Trivedi. 1998. Regression Analysis of Count Data. 2nd ed. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Campbell, Angus, Philip Converse, Warren Miller, and Donald Stokes. 1960. The American Voter. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
Canes-Wrone, Brandice. 2006. Who Leads Whom? Presidents, Policy, and the Public. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Canes-Wrone, Brandice, Michael C. Herron, and Kenneth W. Schotts. 2001. “Leadership and Pandering: A Theory of Executive Policymaking.” American Journal of Political Science 45 (July):532–50.
Canes-Wrone, Brandice, William G. Howell, and David E. Lewis. 2008. “Toward a Broader Understanding of Presidential Power: A Reevaluation of the Two Presidencies Thesis.” Journal of Politics 70 (1):1–16.
Canes-Wrone, Brandice, and Kenneth W. Shotts. 2004. “The Conditional Nature of Presidential Responsiveness to Public Opinion.” American Journal of Political Science 48 (October):690–706.
Card, Andrew. 2011. “No One Likes Article II, but Article II.” October 13. Presentation to the American Politics Program at Texas A&M University.
Carroll, C. D. 1994. “How Does Future Income Affect Current Consumption?” Quarterly Journal of Economics 109 (1):111–47.
Carroll, C. D.. 1997. “Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 110 (1):1–55.
Carroll, C. D., and A. A. Samwick. 1997. “The Nature of Precautionary Wealth.” Journal of Monetary Economics 40 (1):41–71.
Carroll, C. D., and A. A. Samwick. 1998. “How Important Is Precautionary Savings?” Review of Economics and Statistics 80 (3):410–19.
Cassino, Dan, and Milton Lodge. 2007. “The Primacy of Affect in Political Evaluations.” In The Affect Effect: Dynamics of Emotion in Political Thinking and Behavior, ed. W. R. Neuman, G. E. Marcus, A. N. Crigler, and M. MacKuen. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Chappell, Henry W., and William R. Keech. 1985. “A New View of Political Accountability for Economic Performance.” American Political Science Review 79 (1):10–27.
Clarke, Harold D., and Marianne C. Stewart. 1994. “Prospections, Retrospections, and Rationality: The “Bankers” Model of Presidential Approval Reconsidered.” American Journal of Political Science 38 (4):1104–23.
Cohen, Jeffrey E. 1991. “A Historical Reassessment of Wildavsky's ‘Two Presidencies’ Thesis.” Social Science Quarterly 63 (3):549–55.
Cohen, Jeffrey E.. 1999. Presidential Responsiveness and Public Policy-Making: The Public and the Policies that Presidents Choose. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Conference Board. 2001. Business Cycle Indicators Handbook. New York: The Conference Board.
Congressional Budget Office. 2007. “Statement of Peter Orszag, Director, Estimated Costs of U.S. Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and of Other Activities Related to the War on Terrorism.” In Committee on the Budget, U.S. House of Representatives. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Conover, Pamela Johnson, and Stanley Feldman. 1986. “Emotional Reactions to the Economy: I’m Mad as Hell and I’m Not Going to Take It Anymore.” American Journal of Political Science 30 (1):50–78.
Conover, Pamela Johnson, and Stanley Feldman. 1989. “Candidate Perceptions in an Ambiguous World: Campaigns, Cues, and Inference Processes.” American Journal of Political Science 33 (3):917–40.
Cooper, Phillip J. 2002. By Order of the President: The Use and Abuse of Executive Direct Action. Lawrence: University of Kansas Press.
Cosgrove-Mather, Bootie. 2003. “Poll: Talk First, Fight Later.” CBS News.com, January 23.
Cotton, Timothy Y. C. 1987. “War and American Democracy: Electoral Costs of the Last Five Wars.” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 30 (December):616–35.
Curtin, Richard T.
2000.
Psychology and Macroeconomics: Fifty Years of the Surveys of Consumers. Special Report, Surveys of Consumers,
University of Michigan. Available after public login at
http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/.
Dalton, Fury. 2009. Kill Bin Laden: A Delta Force Commander's Account of the Hunt for the World's Most Wanted Man. New York:St. Martin's Griffin.
Davis, O. A., and Melvin A. Hinich. 1966. “A Mathematical Model of Policy Formulation in a Democratic Society.” In Mathematical Applications in Political Science II, ed. J. L. Bernd. Dallas, TX: Southern Methodist University Press.
Davis, O. A., Melvin A. Hinich, and Peter Ordeshook. 1970. “An Expository Development of a Mathematical Model of the Electoral Process.” American Political Science Review 64 (2):426–48.
DeConde, Alexander. 1966. The Quasi-War: The Politics and Diplomacy of the Undeclared War with France, 1797–1801. New York: Charles Scribner and Sons.
DeRouen, Karl. 1995. “The Indirect Link: Politics, the Economy, and the Use of Force.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 39 (4):671–95.
DeRouen, Karl. 2000. “Presidents and the Diversionary Use of Force: A Research Note.” International Studies Quarterly 44 (2):317–28.
Diggins, John Patrick. 2003. John Adams. New York: Henry Holt.
Donnelly, Thomas. 2000. “Rebuilding America's Defenses: Strategy, Forces and Resources for a New Century.” Washington, DC: Project for the New American Century.
Dorussen, Han, and Jongryn Mo. 2001. “Ending Economic Sanctions: Audience Costs and Rent-Seeking as Commitment Strategies.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 45 (4):395–426.
Dovi, Suzanne. 2006. “Political Representation.” In Stanford Encyclopedia of Political Philosophy, ed. E. N. Zalta. Stanford, CA: The Metaphysics Research Lab.
Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper and Row.
Edelman, Murray. 1964. The Symbolic Uses of Politics. Urbana: University of Illinois Press.
Edwards, George C., III. 1983. The Public Presidency: The Pursuit of Popular Support. New York: St. Martin's Press.
Edwards, George C.. 1986. “The Two Presidencies: A Reevaluation.” American Politics Quarterly 14 (3):247.
Edwards, George C.. 2003. On Deaf Ears: The Limits of the Bully Pulpit. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Edwards, George C., III, William Mitchell, and Reed Welch. 1995. “Explaining Presidential Approval: The Significance of Issue Salience.” American Journal of Political Science 39 (1):108–34.
Edwards, George C., III, and B. Dan Wood. 1999. “Who Influences Whom? The President and the Public Agenda.” American Political Science Review 93 (2):327–44.
Efran, Shawn. 2008. “Army Officer Recalls Hunt for Bin Laden.” 60 Minutes, CBS News, October 5.
Elkins, Stanley, and Eric McKitrick. 1993. The Age of Federalism. New York: Oxford University Press.
Enders, Walter, and Todd Sandler. 2000. “Is Transnational Terrorism Becoming More Threatening?” Journal of Conflict Resolution 44 (2):307–32.
Enelow, James M., and Melvin J. Hinich. 1981. “A New Approach to Voter Uncertainty in the Downsian Spatial Model.” American Journal of Political Science 25 (3):483–93.
Enelow, James M., and Melvin J. Hinich. 1982. “Ideology, Issues, and the Spatial Theory of Elections.” American Political Science Review 76 (3):493–501.
Enelow, James M., and Melvin J. Hinich. 1984. The Spatial Theory of Voting: An Introduction. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Entman, Robert M. 1991. “Framing U.S. Coverage of International Affairs: Contrasts in Narratives of the KAL and Iran Air Incidents.” Journal of Communication 51 (4):6–27.
Erikson, Robert S., Michael B. MacKuen, and James A. Stimson. 2002. The Macro Polity. Boston: Cambridge University Press.
Fearon, James. 1994. “Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Conflict.” American Political Science Review 88 (3):577–92.
Fearon, James D. 1997. “Signaling Foreign Policy Interests.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (1):68–90.
Feldman, Noah. 2006. “Our Presidential Era: Who Can Check the President?” New York Times, January 8.
Feldman, Noah. 2007. “Our Presidential Era: Who Can Check the President?” New York Times, February 4.
Ferling, John. 1992. John Adams: A Life. New York: Oxford University Press.
Finkel, Steven E. 1993. “Reexamining the ‘Minimal Effects’ Model in Recent Presidential Campaigns.” Journal of Politics 55 (1):1–21.
Fiorina, Morris P. 1981. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Fischer, Hanna. 2008. “Iraqi Civilian Deaths Estimates.” Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service.
Fisher, Louis. 2003. “Deciding on War against Iraq: Institutional Failures.” Political Science Quarterly 118 (3):389–410.
Fisher, Louis. 2006. “The Sole Organ Doctrine.” In Studies on Presidential Power in Foreign Relations. Washington, DC: The Law Library of Congress.
Fisher, Louis. 2007a. “Invoking Inherent Powers: A Primer.” Presidential Studies Quarterly 37 (1):1–22.
Fisher, Louis. 2007b. “The Law: Presidential Inherent Power: The ‘Sole Organ’ Doctrine.” Presidential Studies Quarterly 37 (1):139–52.
Fisher, Louis. 2007c. “Signing Statements: Constitutional and Practical Limits.” William and Mary Bill of Rights Journal 16:183–210.
Fisher, Louis. 2007e. “Treaty Negotiation: A Presidential Monopoly.” Presidential Studies Quarterly 38 (1):144–58.
Fisher, Louis. 2008a. “Extraordinary Rendition: The Price of Secrecy.” American University Law Review 57:1405.
Fitzpatrick, John C., ed. 1931. The Writings of George Washington from the Original Manuscript Sources, 1745–1799. Vol. 34. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Fleisher, Richard, and Jon R. Bond. 1988. “Are There Two Presidencies? Yes, but Only for Republicans.” The Journal of Politics 50 (3):747–67.
Fleisher, Richard, and Jon R. Bond. 2000. “The Demise of the Two Presidencies.” American Politics Quarterly 28 (1):3.
Fordham, Benjamin. 1998a. “Partisanship, Macroeconomic Policy, and U.S. Uses of Force, 1949–1994.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 42 (4):418–39.
Fordham, Benjamin. 1998b. “The Politics of Threat Perception and the Use of Force: A Political Economy Model of U.S. Uses of Force, 1949–1994.” International Studies Quarterly 42 (3):567–90.
Fordham, Benjamin. 2002. “Another Look at “Parties, Voters, and the Use of Force Abroad.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 46 (4):572–96.
Freeman, John R., John T. Williams, and Tse-min Lin. 1989. “Vector Autoregression and the Study of Politics.” American Journal of Political Science 33 (November):842–77.
Friedman, Milton. 1957. A Theory of the Consumption Function. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Gelpi, Christopher F., and Michael Griesdorf. 2001. “Winners or Losers? Democracies in International Crisis, 1918–94.” The American Political Science Review 95 (3):633–47.
George, Alexander L. 2009. “Coercive Diplomacy.” In The Use of Force: Military Power and International Politics, ed. R. J. Art and K. N. Waltz. New York: Rowman and Littlefield.
Gerber, Alan, and Donald P. Green. 1997. “Rational Learning and Partisan Attitudes.” American Journal of Political Science 42 (3):794–818.
Gerber, Alan, and Donald Green. 1999. “Misperceptions about Perceptual Bias.” Annual Review of Political Science 2 (1):189–210.
Gergen, David. 2000. Eyewitness to Power: The Essence of Leadership. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Global Terrorism Database. Available at
http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd. Accessed on February 7,
2010. College Park, MD: National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), University of Maryland.
Goldstein, Joshua S. 1992. “A Conflict-Cooperation Scale for WEIS Events Data.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 36 (2):369–85.
Gowa, Joanne. 1998. “Politics at the Water's Edge: Parties, Voters, and the Use of Force Abroad.” International Organization 52 (2):307–24.
Granger, Clive W. J. 1969. “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Models.” Econometrica 37 (July):424–38.
Green, Peter S. 2002. “Havel Denies Telephoning U.S. on Iraq Meeting.” New York Times, October 23.
Grimmett, Richard F. 2001. “The War Powers Resolution: After Twenty-Eight Years.” Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service.
Haller, H. Brandon, and Helmut Norpoth. 1994. “Let the Good Times Roll: The Economic Expectations of U.S. Voters.” American Journal of Political Science 38 (3):625–50.
Halstead, T. J. 2007. “Presidential Signing Statements: Constitutional and Institutional Implications.” Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Hibbs, Douglas A., Jr. 1974. “Problems of Statistical Estimation and Causal Inference in Time Series Regression Models.” In Sociological Methodology, 1973–74, ed. H. L. Costner. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
Hibbs, Douglas A.. 1987. The American Political Economy: Macroeconomics and Electoral Politics. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Hill, Kim Quaile, and Patricia A. Hurley. 1999. “Dyadic Representation Reappraised.” American Journal of Political Science 43 (1):109–37.
Howell, William G. 2003. Power without Persuasion: The Politics of Direct Presidential Action. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Howell, William G., and Jon C. Pevehouse. 2005. “Presidents, Congress, and the Use of Force.” International Organization 59 (1):209–32.
Howell, William G., and Jon C. Pevehouse. 2007. While Dangers Gather: Congressional Checks on Presidential War Powers. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Huddy, Leonie, Stanley Feldman, and Erin Cassese. 2007. “On the Distinct Political Effects of Anxiety and Anger.” In The Affect Effect: Dynamics of Emotion in Political Thinking and Behavior, ed. W. R. Neuman, G. E. Marcus, A. N. Crigler, and M. MacKuen. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Inspector General.
1997. “FBI Laboratory: An Investigation into Laboratory Practices and Alleged Misconduct in Explosives-Related and Other Cases.” Washington, DC: Office of the Inspector General, Department of Justice. Available at
http://www.justice.gov/oig/special/9704a/.
Jacobs, Lawrence R., and Robert Y. Shapiro. 2000. Politicians Don't Pander. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Jacoby, William G. 1988. “The Impact of Party Identification on Issue Attitudes.” American Journal of Political Science 32 (2):643–61.
James, Patrick, and Athanasios Hristoulas. 1994. “Domestic Politics and Foreign Politics: Evaluating a Model of Crisis Activity for the United States.” Journal of Politics 56 (2):327–48.
James, Patrick, and James Oneal. 1991. “The Influence of Domestic and International Politics on the President's Use of Force.” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 35 (2):307–32.
Jay, John.
1788a. The Same Subject Continued: Concerning Dangers from Foreign Force and Influence, for the Independent Journal.
Federalist Papers No. 3. Available at the Avalon Project Web site:
http://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed03.asp.
Jones, Jeffrey M. 2003. “Public Support for Invasion of Iraq Holds Steady.” Gallup News Service, February 28.
Katona, George. 1951. Psychological Analysis of Economic Behavior. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Katona, George. 1960. The Powerful Consumer: Psychological Studies of the American Economy. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Katona, George. 1964. The Mass Consumption Society. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Katona, George. 1975. Psychological Economics. New York: Elsevier.
Kernell, Samuel J. 1978. “Explaining Presidential Popularity: How Ad Hoc Theorizing, Misplaced Emphasis, and Insufficient Care in Measuring One's Variables Refuted Common Sense and Led Conventional Wisdom Down the Path of Anomalies.” American Political Science Review 72 (June):506–22.
Kernell, Samuel J.. 1997. Going Public: New Strategies of Presidential Leadership, 3rd ed. Washington DC: CQ Press.
Kimball, M. S. 1990. “Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large.” Econometrica 58 (1):53–73.
Kull, Stephen, Clay Ramsay, and Evan Lewis. 2003. “Misperceptions, the Media, and the Iraq War.” Political Science Quarterly 118 (4):569–98.
Kunda, Ziva. 1987. “Motivation and Inference: Self-Serving Generation and Evaluation of Evidence.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 53:636–47.
Kunda, Ziva. 1990. “The Case for Motivated Political Reasoning.” Psychological Bulletin 108 (3):480–98.
Kurizaki, Shuhei. 2007. “Efficient Secrecy: Public versus Private Threats in Crisis Diplomacy.” The American Political Science Review 101 (3):543–58.
Laver, Michael. 1981. The Politics of Private Desires: The Guide to the Politics of Rational Choice. New York: Penguin Books.
Lebo, Matthew J., and Daniel Cassino. 2007. “The Aggregated Consequences of Motivated Reasoning and the Dynamics of Partisan Presidential Approval.” Political Psychology 28 (6):2007.
LeLoup, Lance T., and Steven A. Shull. 1979. “Congress Versus the Executive: The ‘Two Presidencies’ Reconsidered.” Social Science Quarterly 59 (4):704–19.
Leventoğlu, Bahar, and Ahmer Tarar. 2005. “Prenegotiation Public Commitment in Domestic and International Bargaining.” The American Political Science Review 99 (3):419–33.
Levy, Jack S. 1987. “Domestic Politics and War.” Journal of Interdisciplinary History 18 (4):653–73.
Levy, Jack S.. 1989. “The Causes of War: A Review of Theories and Evidence.” In Behavior, Society, and Nuclear War, ed. P. E. Tetlock, J. L. Husbands, R. Jervis, P. C. Stern, and C. Tilly. New York: Oxford University Press.
Lewis, David. 1997. “The Two Rhetorical Presidencies.” American Politics Quarterly 25 (3):380.
Lewis, David E. 2003. Presidents and the Politics of Agency Design. Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press.
Lewis, David E., and William G. Howell. 2002. “Agencies by Presidential Design.” Journal of Politics 64 (4):1095–114.
Lodge, Milton, and Ruth Hamill. 1986. “A Partisan Schema for Political Information Processing.” 82 (3):737–61.
Lodge, Milton, and Charles S. Taber. 2000. “Three Steps Toward a Theory of Motivated Political Reasoning.” In Elements of Reason: Cognition, Choice, and the Bounds of Rationality, ed. A. Lupia, M. McCubbins, and S. L. Popkin. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Lodge, Milton, and Charles S. Taber. 2005. “Automaticity of Affect for Political Candidates, Parties, and Issues: An Experimental Test of the Hot Cognition Hypothesis.” Political Psychology 26 (3):455–82.
Lyke, M. L. 2003. “Commander in Chief's Visit Sets Aircraft Carrier's Crew Abuzz.” Seattle Post Intelligenser, May 1.
Lynch, Stephen. 2008. “The Most Dangerous Game: What Went Wrong in the Hunt for bin Laden.” New York Post, October 5.
MacKuen, Michael B. 1983. “Political Drama, Economic Conditions, and the Dynamics of Presidential Popularity.” American Journal of Political Science 27 (2):165–92.
MacKuen, Michael B., Robert S. Erikson, and James A. Stimson. 1992. “Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy.” American Political Science Review 86 (3):597–611.
MacKuen, Michael, George E. Marcus, W. Russell Neuman, and Luke Keele. 2007. “The Third Way: The Theory of Affective Intelligence and American Democracy.” In The Affect Effect: Dynamics of Emotion in Political Thinking and Behavior, ed. W. R. Neuman, G. E. Marcus, A. N. Crigler, and M. MacKuen. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Madison, James.
1788a. The Alleged Tendency of the New Plan to Elevate the Few at the Expense of the Many in Connection with Representation, from the New York Packet.
Federalist Papers No. 57. Available at the Avalon Project Web site:
http://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed57.asp.
Madison, James. 1911. “August 17, 1787.” In The Records of the Federal Convention of 1787, ed. M. Farrand. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Mansbridge, Jane. 2003. “Rethinking Representation.” American Political Science Review 97 (4):515–28.
Marcus, George E. 1988. “The Structure of Emotional Response: 1984 Presidential Candidates.” American Political Science Review 82:737–81.
Marcus, George E., and Michael B. MacKuen. 1993. “Anxiety, Enthusiasm, and the Vote: The Emotional Underpinnings of Learning and Involvement in Presidential Campaigns.” American Political Science Review 87:672–85.
Marcus, George E., W. Russell Neuman, and Michael MacKuen. 2000. Affective Intelligence and Political Judgment. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Markus, Gregory. 1988. “The Impact of Personal and National Economic Conditions on the Presidential Vote: A Pooled Cross-Sectional Analysis.” American Journal of Political Science 32 (1):137–54.
Markus, Gregory B., and Philip E. Converse. 1979. “A Dynamic Simultaneous Equation Model of Electoral Choice.” American Political Science Review 73 (4):1055–70.
Markus, Gregory B., and Philip E. Converse. 1982. “Political Attitudes during an Election Year: A Report on the 1980 NES Panel Study.” American Political Science Review 76 (2):538–60.
Marshall, Bryan W., and Richard L. Pacelle, Jr. 2005. “Revisiting the Two Presidencies.” American Politics Research 33 (1):81–105.
Matthews, Chris. 2005. “Road to War: How the Bush Administration Sold the War to the American People.” Hardball, MSNBC TV, November 8.
Maurice, Jean-Claude. 2009. Si vous le répétez, je démentirai…Chirac, Sarkozy, Villepin. Paris: Plon.
Mayer, Kenneth R. 1999. “Executive Orders and Presidential Power.” Journal of Politics 61:445–66.
Mayer, Kenneth R.. 2001. With the Stroke of a Pen: Executive Orders and Presidential Power. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
McCullough, David. 2001. John Adams. New York: Simon & Schuster.
McGraw, Kathleen M., Mark Fischle, Karen Stenner, and Milton Lodge. 1996. “What's in a Word? Bias in Trait Descriptions of Political Leaders.” Political Behavior 18 (3):263–87.
McGraw, Kathleen M., Milton Lodge, and Jeffrey M. Jones. 2002. “The Pandering Politicians of Suspicious Minds.” Journal of Politics 64 (2):362–83.
Mearsheimer, John J. 2001. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: Norton.
Mearsheimer, John J., and Stephen M. Walt. 2007. The Israel Lobby and American Foreign Policy. New York: Macmillan.
Meernik, James. 1994. “Presidential Decision Making and the Political Use of Military Force.” International Studies Quarterly 39 (1):121–38.
Meernik, James, and Peter Waterman. 1996. “The Myth of the Diversionary Use of Force by American Presidents.” Political Research Quarterly 49 (3):573–90.
Mekay, Emad. 2004. “9/11 Commission Director: Iraq War Launched to Protect Israel.” antiwar.com: Inter Press Service.
Milbank, Dana. 2002. “For Bush, Facts Are Malleable.” Washington Post, October 22.
Modigliani, F., and R. Brumberg. 1954. “Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function: An Interpretation of Cross-Section Data.” In Post-Keynesian Economics, ed. K. Kurihara. Piscataway, NJ: Rutgers University Press.
Monroe, Kristen R. 1978. “Economic Influences on Presidential Popularity.” Public Opinion Quarterly 42 (Autumn):360–69.
Morgan, Clifton T., and Kenneth N. Bickers. 1992. “Domestic Discontent and the External Use of Force.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 36 (1):25–52.
Mueller, John. 1970. “Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson.” American Political Science Review 65 (1):18–34.
Mueller, John. 1973. War, Presidents, and Public Opinion. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
National Security Archive.
2003. “
North Korea and Nuclear Weapons: The Declassified Record.” In
National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 87, ed.
R. A. Wampler.
Washington, DC:
George Washington University. Available at
http://www.gwu.edu/∼nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB87/.
National Security Archive.
2010a.
“THE IRAQ WAR – PART I: The U.S. Prepares for Conflict, 2001.” In
National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 328, ed.
J. Prados and
C. Ames.
Washington, DC:
George Washington University. Available at
http://www.gwu.edu/∼nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB326/index.htm.
National Security Archive.
2010b. “
THE IRAQ WAR – PART II: Was There Even a Decision?” In
National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 328, ed.
J. Prados and
C. Ames.
Washington, DC:
George Washington University. Available at
http://www.gwu.edu/∼nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB328/index.htm.
National Security Archive.
2010c. “
THE IRAQ WAR – PART III: Shaping the Debate.” In
National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 328, ed.
J. Prados and
C. Ames.
Washington, DC:
George Washington University. Available at
http://www.gwu.edu/∼nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB330/index.htm.
Nixon, Richard M. 1973. Message Vetoing House Joint Resolution 542, A Joint Resolution Concerning the War Powers of Congress and the President. October 24.
Norpoth, Helmut. 1996. “Presidents and the Prospective Voter.” Journal of Politics 58 (3):776–92.
Olson, Mancur, Jr. 1965. The Logic of Collective Action. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Ornstein, Norman, and Thomas Mann, eds. 2000. The Permanent Campaign and Its Future. Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute and the Brookings Institution.
Ostrom, Charles W., Jr., and Brian Job. 1986. “The President and the Political Use of Force.” American Political Science Review 80 (2):541–66.
Ostrom, Charles W., Jr., and Renee Smith. 1993. “Error Correction, Attitude Persistence, and Executive Rewards and Punishments: A Behavioral Theory of Presidential Approval.” Political Analysis 4:127–84.
Page, Benjamin I., and Robert Y. Shapiro. 1985. “Presidential Leadership through Public Opinion.” In The Presidency and Public Policy Making, ed. G. C. I. Edwards, S. A. Shull, and N. C. Thomas. Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh Press.
Page, Benjamin I., and Robert Y. Shapiro. 1992. The Rational Public: Fifty Years of Trends in American's Policy Preferences. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Page, Susan. 2003. “Confronting Iraq: Prewar Predictions Coming Back to Bite.” USA Today.
Partell, Peter J., and Glenn Palmer. 1999. “Audience Costs and Interstate Crises: An Empirical Assessment.” International Studies Quarterly 43 (2):389–405.
Pennock, J. Roland, and John Chapman, eds. 1968. Representation. New York: Atherton Press.
Pitkin, Hanna Fenichel. 1967. The Concept of Representation. Los Angeles: University of California Press.
Plato. 2007. The Republic. New York: Penguin Classics.
Public Papers of the Presidents. March 17, 2003. “Address to the Nation on Iraq.” Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Public Papers of the Presidents. March 15, 2003. “The President's Radio Address.” Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Public Papers of the Presidents. February 6, 2003. “Remarks on the Iraqi Regime's Noncompliance with United Nations Resolutions.” Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Public Papers of the Presidents. January 28, 2003. “Address Before a Joint Session of the Congress on the State of the Union.” Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Public Papers of the Presidents. October 7, 2002. “Address to the Nation on Iraq from Cincinnati, Ohio.” Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Public Papers of the Presidents. September 28, 2002. “The President's Radio Address.” Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Public Papers of the Presidents. September 26, 2002a. “Remarks at a Reception for Senatorial Candidate John Cornyn in Houston, Texas.” Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Public Papers of the Presidents. September 26, 2002b. “Remarks Following a Meeting with Congressional Leaders.” Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Public Papers of the Presidents. September 25, 2002. “Remarks Prior to Discussions with President Alvaro Uribe of Colombia and an Exchange with Reporters.” Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Public Papers of the Presidents. September 12, 2002. “Address to the United Nations General Assembly in New York City.” Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Public Papers of the Presidents. January 29, 2002. “Address Before a Joint Session of the Congress on the State of the Union.” Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Public Papers of the Presidents. September 20, 2001. “Address Before a Joint Session of the Congress on the United States Response to the Terrorist Attacks of September 11.” Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Public Papers of the Presidents. March 13, 2001. “Notice-Continuation of Iran Emergency.” Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Public Papers of the Presidents. March 7, 2001. “Remarks Prior to Discussions with President Kim Dae-jung of South Korea and an Exchange with Reporters.” Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Public Papers of the Presidents. February 4, 1998. “Remarks Announcing the High Hopes for College Initiative.” Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Public Papers of the Presidents. November 8, 1996. “Presidential Documents, Week Ending November 8, 1996.” Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Public Papers of the Presidents. March 15, 1995. “Executive Order 12957 – Prohibiting Certain Transactions with Respect to the Development of Iranian Petroleum Resources.” Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Public Papers of the Presidents. January 21, 1981. “Swearing In Ceremony for White House Staff.” Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.
Rahn, Wendy M. 1993. “The Role of Partisan Stereotypes in Information Processing about Political Candidates.” American Journal of Political Science 37 (2):472–96.
Ramsay, Kristopher W. 2004. “Politics at the Water's Edge: Crisis Bargaining and Electoral Competition.” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (4):459–86.
Redlawsk, David P. 2002. “Hot Cognition or Cool Consideration: Testing the Effects of Motivated Reasoning on Political Decision Making.” Journal of Politics 64 (4):1021–44.
Rendall, Steve, and Tara Broughel. 2003. “Amplifying Officials, Squelching Dissent.” In FAIR: Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting. New York: FAIR.
Ricks, Thomas E. 2002. “Some Top Military Brass Favor Status Quo in Iraq: Containment Seen Less Risky than Attack.” Washington Post, July 28.
Riker, William H., and Peter Ordeshook. 1973. An Introduction to Positive Political Theory. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
Risen, James. 2002a. “How Politics and Rivalries Fed Suspicions of a Meeting.” New York Times, October 21.
Risen, James. 2002b. “Prague Discounts an Iraqi Meeting.” New York Times, October 21.
Roosevelt, Franklin D. 1937. Second Inaugural Address. January 20.
Roosevelt, Theodore. 1913. The Autobiography of Theodore Roosevelt, Centennial Edition. New York: Charles Scribner's Sons.
Rumsfeld, Donald. 2011. Known and Unknown: A Memoir. New York: Penguin.
Russert, Tim. 2003. Interview with Vice-President Dick Cheney. Meet the Press, NBC News, March 16.
Russett, Bruce. 1989. “Economic Decline, Electoral Pressure, and the Initiation of Interstate Conflict.” In Prisoners of War: Nation States in the Modern Era, ed. C. Gockman and A. N. Sabrosky. Boston: Heath.
Sanger, David E. 2003. “North Korea Says It Now Possesses Nuclear Arsenal.” New York Times, April 25.
Schelling, Thomas. 1960. The Strategy of Conflict. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Schultz, Kenneth A. 1998. “Domestic Opposition and Signaling in International Crises.” The American Political Science Review 92 (4):829–44.
Schultz, Kenneth A.. 2001a. Democracy and Coercive Diplomacy. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Schultz, Kenneth A.. 2001b. “Looking for Audience Costs.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 45 (1):32–60.
Schwartz, Nancy. 1988. The Blue Guitar: Political Representation and Community. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Schwartz, Randal L., Erik Olson, and Tom Christiansen. 1997. Learning PERL on Win32 Systems. Cambridge, MA: O’Reilly.
Scowcroft, Brent. 2002. “Don't Attack Saddam.” Wall Street Journal, August 15.
Sharp, James Roger. 1993. American Politics in the Early Republic. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Shaw, Malcolm. 2008. International Law, 6th ed. Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press.
Shepsle, Kenneth A. 2010. Analyzing Politics: Rationality, Behavior, and Institutions, 2nd ed. New York: W. W. Norton.
Sigal, Leon V. 1998. Disarming Strangers: Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Sigelman, Lee. 1979. “A Reassessment of the Two Presidencies Thesis.” The Journal of Politics 41 (4):1195–205.
Simon, Dennis M., and Charles W. Ostrom. 1989. “The Impact of Televised Speeches and Foreign Travel on Presidential Approval.” Public Opinion Quarterly 53 (1):58–82.
Simon, Herbert A. 1947. Administrative Behavior. New York: Free Press.
Sims, Christopher A. 1980. “Macroeconomics and Reality.” Econometrica 48 (January):1–48.
Sims, Christopher A., and T. Zha. 1999. “Error Bands for Impulse Responses.” Econometrica 67 (5):1113–56.
Smith, Alastair. 1996. “Diversionary Foreign Policy in Democratic Systems.” International Studies Quarterly 40 (1):133–53.
Smith, Alastair. 1998. “International Crises and Domestic Politics.” American Political Science Review 92 (3):623–38.
Souleles, Nicholas S. 2001. “Consumer Sentiment: Its Rationality and Usefulness in Forecasting Expenditure-Evidence from the Michigan Micro Data.” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper W8410.
Stimson, James A. 1991. Public Opinion in America: Moods, Cycles, and Swings. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
Stimson, James A., Michael B. MacKuen, and Robert S. Erikson. 1995. “Dynamic Representation.” American Political Science Review 89 (September):543–65.
Taber, Charles S., and Milton Lodge. 2006. “Motivated Skepticism in the Evaluation of Political Beliefs.” American Journal of Political Science 50 (3):755–69.
Tarar, Ahmer, and Bahar Leventoğlu. 2009. “Public Commitment in Crisis Bargaining.” International Studies Quarterly 53 (3):817–39.
Tomz, Michael. 2007. “Domestic Audience Costs in International Relations: An Experimental Approach.” International Organization 61 (Fall):821–40.
Tulis, Jeffrey. 1987. The Rhetorical Presidency. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
U.S. Department of State. 2011. “Country Reports on Terrorism.” Washington, DC.
Walt, Stephen M. 2006. Taming American Power. New York: W. W. Norton.
Waltz, Kenneth N. 1979. Theory of International Politics. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
Weeks, Jessica L. 2008. “Autocratic Audience Costs: Regime Type and Signaling Resolve.” International Organization 62 (Winter):35–64.
Weisberg, Herbert F. 2005. “The U.S. Presidential and Congressional Elections, November 2004.” Electoral Studies 24 (3):777–84.
Weisberg, Herbert F., and Dino P. Christenson. 2007. “Changing Horses in Wartime? The 2004 Presidential Election.” Political Behavior 29 (2):279–304.
Weisman, Stephen. 2005. “Powell Calls His UN Speech a Lasting Blot on His Record.” New York Times, September 9.
Wildavsky, Aaron. 1966. “The Two Presidencies.” Trans-Action 4:7–14.
Wittman, Donald. 1983. “Candidate Motivation: A Synthesis of Alternatives.” American Political Science Review 77:142–57.
Wlezien, Christopher. 1996. “Dynamics of Representation: The Case of U.S. Spending on Defense.” British Journal of Political Science 26 (1):81–103.
Wood, B. Dan. 2000. “Weak Theories and Parameter Instability: Using Flexible Least Squares to Take Time-Varying Relationships Seriously.” American Journal of Political Science 44 (3):603–18.
Wood, B. Dan. 2007. The Politics of Economic Leadership. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Wood, B. Dan. 2009a. The Myth of Presidential Representation. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Wood, B. Dan. 2009b. “Presidential Saber Rattling and the Economy.” American Journal of Political Science 53 (3).
Wood, B. Dan, and Angela Hinton Andersson. 1998. “The Dynamics of Senatorial Representation.” Journal of Politics 60 (3):705–36.
Wood, B. Dan, Brandy M. Durham, and Chris T. Owens. 2005. “Presidential Rhetoric and the Economy.” Journal of Politics 67 (3):627–45.
Wood, B. Dan, and Han Soo Lee. 2009. “Explaining Presidential Liberalism: Pandering, Partisanship, or Pragmatism.” Journal of Politics 71 (4):1–16.
Wood, B. Dan, and Jeffrey S. Peake. 1998. “The Dynamics of Foreign Policy Agenda Setting.” American Political Science Review 92 (1):173–84.
Wood, B. Dan, and Arnold Vedlitz. 2009. “Information Processing, Focusing Events, and the Public Response to Global Climate Change.” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, New Orleans, LA.
Woodward, Bob. 2002. Bush at War. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Woodward, Bob. 2004. Plan of Attack. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Woodward, Bob. 2006. State of Denial: Bush at War Part III. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Yoo, John C., and Robert J. Delahunty. 2009. “The ‘Bush Doctrine’: Can Preventive War Be Justified?” Harvard Journal of Law and Public Policy 32 (3):843–46.
Yoon, M. Y. 1997. “Explaining U.S. Intervention in Third World Internal Wars, 1945–89.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (4):580–602.
Zaller, John R. 1992. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. Boston: Cambridge University Press.
Zeger, S. L., and B. Qaqish. 1988. “Markov Regression Models for Time Series: A Quasi-Likelihood Approach.” Biometrics 44:1019–31.
Zellner, Arnold. 1962. “An Efficient Method of Estimating Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations and Tests for Aggregation Bias.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 57 (June):348–68.
Zogby, James. 2007. “Four Years Later: Arab Opinion Troubled by Consequences of Iraq War.” Washington, DC: Arab American Institute.
