Political parties that could be described as social democratic have been in decline for some years, particularly in the countries where they have historically been strongest: Britain, Germany and in Scandinavia. Others, which were loosely associated, outside the Western world, as in India and Brazil, have largely disappeared. Almost everywhere, competing voices – nationalism, ethnically based populism and authoritarian ‘strong men’ – have drowned out the appeal of social democracy and captured a substantial section of the electoral base of social democratic parties. That base was in any event contracting because of structural change in the economy away from manufacturing and unionised employment, and the greater priority for younger voters of new issues like the environment. The main appeal of social democrats – that they offer the best of capitalism and socialism, both the economic effectiveness of the former and the fairness of the latter – was increasingly seen to be not credible or relevant.

The COVID-19 pandemic may produce big and longterm changes to the scenery against which political drama is being played out. It could hasten the decline of social democracy; however, it could also help it stage a revival. Certainly, the challenges now being thrown up are those to which social democrats have produced answers in the past: mass unemployment; the re-emergence of large-scale mass poverty in the poorest countries; protectionism and lack of international cooperation; and growing dependence on the state to coordinate, plan and be the health provider, employer and safety net of last resort. Social democrats, in government and out, were key to the post-war consensus that was instrumental in tackling these problems, which have now resurfaced in a new way.

However, there are competing political models and ideas. Nationalism and populism are powerful forces in some countries (the US, Russia, China, Brazil, Mexico and India). Overlapping with those is the cult of ‘the authoritarian strongman’. Then there are what can be called the ‘welfare technocracies’ of East Asia. There are pockets, which may grow, of aggressive and radical individualism. And, in contrast, there are strongly communitarian movements at local level: sometimes inclusive; sometimes exclusive. The issue for social democrats is whether they can offer a mixture of competence and compassion that can transcend the competition in a democratic context.