Introduction

London is often viewed as a model for the development of sustainable transport planning, including the world's oldest Underground system (which celebrated 150 years in 2013); consistent enhancements to the public transport networks with a multi-modal nature; a compact and polycentric urban form (building on the original ‘city of villages’ on which contemporary London was developed); and even progressive policy measures such as congestion charging and streetscape designs that have proved difficult to implement in other urban areas. As a result, the city authorities – Transport for London (TfL) and the Greater London Authority (GLA) – have developed a reputation for developing broad-ranging and often innovative strategies to move towards greater sustainability in travel. The current policy approach is represented in the Mayor's Transport Strategy (TfL, 2010), and includes an ambitious overriding objective, in environmental terms, of a 60 per cent reduction in CO2 emissions by 2025 on a 1990 base across all sectors. This is a globally leading policy position for a western industrialised country, perhaps the deepest reduction target relative to international practice.

The current levels of aggregate CO2 emissions for London are at 48 MtCO2 (million tonnes of CO2), and transport accounts for 22 per cent of this, at around 10 MtCO2 (TfL, 2011). A key question that remains – and is largely unanswered – is whether the extent of strategy development and, most importantly, implementation, is likely to deliver transport CO2 emission reductions to anywhere near the target levels. Emissions have actually increased a little since 1990 (45.1 MtCO2 in aggregate and 9.9 MtCO2 in transport), suggesting that there is a long way to go before the aspirations are met. The target levels would require around 4 MtCO2 in transport, assuming transport delivers its ‘fair share’ of the aggregate target. This chapter considers this key problem, commenting on the strategy development, the rhetoric, the progress being made and also the great scale of change required. It highlights the range of policy measures and interventions that are available in infrastructural, vehicle technology and built environmental terms, and attempts some quantification of likely impacts against CO2 reductions targets.