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50 - On Mr Venn's Explanation of a Gambling Paradox

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 July 2011

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Summary

Two players, A and B, toss for pennies. A has the option of continuing or stopping the game at any moment as it suits him. Has he, in consequence of this option, any advantage over B?

From one point of view it would seem that A has an advantage; for, as the game proceeds, the balance of gains must pass backwards and forwards from one side to the other, and if A makes up his mind to continue until he has won (for example) 10, the time must come when he will have an opportunity of carrying off his gains. On the other hand, it seems obvious à priori that no combination of fair bets can be unfair, and that A's option is of no value to him, inasmuch as at any point it is a matter of perfect indifference to him whether he risks another penny or not.

In order to examine the matter more closely, let us suppose that A has originally 1000 pennies, and that he proposes to continue the game until he has won 10, and then to leave off. Under these circumstances, it is clear that in no case can B lose more than 10, whereas A, if unlucky, may lose his whole stock before he has an opportunity of carrying off B's. The case is in fact exactly the same as if B had originally only 10 pennies, and the agreement were to continue the game until either A or B was ruined.

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Scientific Papers , pp. 336 - 337
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2009
First published in: 1899

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