A primary object of the winners of the initial battles of transformation is to achieve an equilibrium of popular support for the new regime through a combination of political performance, economic measures, and the passage of time. In Central and Eastern Europe, there has been dynamic progress from the confusion of the first elections in 1990 to securing popular acceptance and locking the new regimes into the European Union.

Once a steady-state equilibrium is achieved, the next concern of leaders is to maintain support. Fluctuations in the major influences on popular support are facts of political life. The more evenly balanced forces are, the greater the risk that a small change in the impact of one influence will have big consequences for the regime. Whether an equilibrium is democratic or autocratic, political leaders must remain watchful of challenges to the institutions that empower them. Vigilance is not only the price of liberty; it is also the price that autocrats must pay to maintain a repressive regime. The more that political elites ignore changes in the sources of their support, the greater the risk that such pressures will create a major challenge.

In the medium term, the question is not whether a challenge to a regime will arise but when and how it will occur.