Introduction

A recent study commissioned by the Asian Development Bank provides extensive details on the challenges being faced by Pakistan due to climate change (see box). These include variability in river flows (leading to both floods and droughts), heat waves, temperature increases, reduced water availability (leading to declines in crop yields as well as power generation), coastal erosion and storm surges. The study goes on to ask for a concerted effort by the government and civil society at all levels to mitigate these threats.

Two points need to be noted while planning a response to these threats. First, these challenges do not reside in the future; they are already here. The most-cited annual assessment of climate impacts, namely the Germanwatch's Global Climate Risk Index, reveals that Pakistan has consistently ranked in the top 10 of countries adversely affected by climate change in the past 20 years. In this period, the country has suffered from frequent and devastating floods, persistent and prolonged droughts and recurrent heat waves, as well as the impacts of sea level rise, coastal erosion and storm surges.

Second, these impacts are likely to be persistent regardless of any change in policies or actions. The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) introduces a term, “the era of committed climate change”, meaning a period when climate change and its myriad risks (including climate-related disasters, crop collapses, health impacts, heat waves and worsening of air quality) would become inevitable and long-lasting. Although targeted policies and actions will be able to reduce risk levels in some cases, effects like extreme, frequent flooding have already become irreversible. Over time, more and more of the risk categories would fall into the irreversible box, and the hazards being caused by each category would become higher and higher.

Key Findings of Past Trends and Future Projections for Pakistan

• • Temperature: During the last century, Pakistan's average annual temperature increased by 0.57°C. The increase was highest (0.6°–1.0°C between 1960 and 2007) over the hyper arid plains, arid coastal areas and mountains regions of Pakistan. Heat wave days per year increased by 31 days from 1980 to 2007.