Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-hfldf Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-05-19T08:32:06.016Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Chapter 1 - Climate Change: New Dimensions in Disaster Risk, Exposure, Vulnerability, and Resilience

from Section III

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 August 2012

Christopher B. Field
Affiliation:
Co-Chair IPCC Working Group II, Carnegie Institution for Science
Vicente Barros
Affiliation:
Co-Chair IPCC Working Group II, Universidad de Buenos Aires
Thomas F. Stocker
Affiliation:
Co-Chair IPCC Working Group I, University of Bern
Qin Dahe
Affiliation:
Co-Chair IPCC Working Group I, China Meteorological Administration
Get access

Summary

Executive Summary

Disaster signifies extreme impacts suffered when hazardous physical events interact with vulnerable social conditions to severely alter the normal functioning of a community or a society (high confidence). Social vulnerability and exposure are key determinants of disaster risk and help explain why non-extreme physical events and chronic hazards can also lead to extreme impacts and disasters, while some extreme events do not. Extreme impacts on human, ecological, or physical systems derive from individual extreme or non-extreme events, or a compounding of events or their impacts (for example, drought creating the conditions for wildfire, followed by heavy rain leading to landslides and soil erosion). [1.1.2.1, 1.1.2.3, 1.2.3.1, 1.3]

Management strategies based on the reduction of everyday or chronic risk factors and on the reduction of risk associated with non-extreme events, as opposed to strategies based solely on the exceptional or extreme, provide a mechanism that facilitates the reduction of disaster risk and the preparation for and response to extremes and disasters (high confidence). Effective adaptation to climate change requires an understanding of the diverse ways in which social processes and development pathways shape disaster risk. Disaster risk is often causally related to ongoing, chronic, or persistent environmental, economic, or social risk factors. [1.1.2.2, 1.1.3, 1.1.4.1, 1.3.2]

Development practice, policy, and outcomes are critical to shaping disaster risk (high confidence). Disaster risk may be increased by shortcomings in development. Reductions in the rate of depletion of ecosystem services, improvements in urban land use and territorial organization processes, the strengthening of rural livelihoods, and general and specific advances in urban and rural governance advance the composite agenda of poverty reduction, disaster risk reduction, and adaptation to climate change. [1.1.2.1, 1.1.2.2, 1.1.3, 1.3.2, 1.3.3]

Type
Chapter
Information
Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
, pp. 25 - 64
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2012

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

ACC, 2010: Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change. America's Climate Choices, National Academies Press, Washington, DC.
Adger, W.N., 1996: Approaches to Vulnerability to Climate Change. CSERGE Working Papers. University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK.Google Scholar
Adger, W.N., 2000: Social and ecological resilience: Are they related?Progress in Human Geography, 24(3), 347–364.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Adger, W.N., 2006: Vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 16, 268–281.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Adger, W.N., N., Arnell, and E.M., Thompkins, 2005: Successful adaptation to climate change across scales. Global Environmental Change, 15, 77–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alexander, D., 1993: Natural Disasters. UCL Press, London, 632 pp.Google Scholar
Alexander, D., 2000: Confronting Catastrophe. Oxford University Press, New York.Google Scholar
Anderson, M. and P., Woodrow, 1989: Rising from the Ashes: Development Strategies in Times of Disasters. Westview Press, Boulder, CO.Google Scholar
APA, 2009: Psychology and Global Climate Change: Addressing a Multi-faceted Phenomenon and Set of Challenges. American Psychological Association Task Force on the Interface between Psychology and Global Climate Change, American Psychological Association, Washington, DC.
Argyris, C. and D., Schön, 1978: Organizational Learning: A Theory of Action Perspective. Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA.Google Scholar
Armitage, D., M., Marschke, and R., Plummer, 2008: Adaptive co-management and the paradox of learning. Global Environmental Change, 18, 86–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aven, T., 2011. On some recent definitions and analysis frameworks for risk, vulnerability, and resilience. Risk Analysis, 31(4), 515–522.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Bahadur, A.V., M., Ibrahim, and T., Tanner, 2010: The resilience renaissance? Unpacking of Resilience for Tackling Climate Change and Disasters. Institute of Development Studies (for the Strengthening Climate Resilience (SCR) consortium), Brighton, UK.Google Scholar
Baird, A., P., O'Keefe, K., Westgate, and B., Wisner, 1975: Towards an Explanation of and Reduction of Disaster Proneness. Occasional Paper number 11, Disaster Research Unit, University of Bradford, Bradford, UK.Google Scholar
Balamir, M., 2005: Ways of understanding urban earthquake risks. In: Book of Abstracts from ‘Rethinking Inequalities,’ 7th Conference of the European Sociological Association, Institute of Sociology, Nicolaus Copernicus University of Torun, Poland, p. 132.Google Scholar
Ball, N., 1975: The myth of the natural disaster. The Ecologist, 5(10), 368–369.Google Scholar
Bankoff, G., 2001: Rendering the world safe: vulnerability as western discourse. Disasters, 25 (10), 19–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bankoff, G., 2004: The historical geography of disaster: “vulnerability” and “local knowledge” in western discourse. In: Mapping Vulnerability: Disasters, Development, and People [G., Bankoff, G., Frerks, and D., Hillhorst (eds.)]. Earthscan, London, pp. 25–36.Google Scholar
Barke, R, H., Jenkins-Smith, and P., Slovic, 1997: Risk perceptions of men and women scientists. Social Science Quarterly, 78, 167–176.Google Scholar
Barnett, J. and S., O'Neill, 2009: Maladaptation. Global Environmental Change, 20, 211–213.Google Scholar
Barron, E.J., 2009: Beyond climate science. Science, 326, 643.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Batterbury, S., 2008: Anthropology and global warming: the need for environmental engagement. Australian Journal of Anthropology, 1, 62–67.Google Scholar
Bedford, T.J. and R.M., Cooke, 2001: Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Foundations and Methods. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY and Cambridge, UK.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bedsworth, L.W. and E., Hanak, 2010: Adaptation to climate change: A review of challenges and tradeoffs in six areas. Journal of the American Planning Association, 76(4), 477–495.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beer, T. and R., Hamilton, 2002: Natural Disaster Reduction: Safer Sustainable Communities, Making Better Decisions about Risk. International Council for Science, ICSU Position Paper.Google Scholar
Below, R., A., Wirtz and D., Guha-Sapir, 2009: Disaster Category Classification and Peril Terminology for Operational Purposes. Common Accord Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) and Munich Re, Brussels, Belgium and Munich, Germany.Google Scholar
Berkes, F., 2007: Understanding uncertainty and reducing vulnerability: Lessons from resilience thinking. Natural Hazards, 41, 283–295.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berkes, F., J., Colding, and C., Folke (eds.), 2004: Navigating Social-Ecological Systems: Building Resilience for Complexity and Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
Birkmann, J., and K., von Teichman, 2010: Integrating disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation: key challenges – scales, knowledge, and norms. Sustainability Science, 5(2), 171–184.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blaikie, P., T., Cannon, I., Davis, and B., Wisner, 1994: At Risk: Natural Hazards, People's Vulnerability and Disasters. 1st edition. Routledge, London.Google Scholar
Borger, G.J. and W.A., Ligtendag, 1998: The role of water in the development of the Netherlands – a historical perspective. Journal of Coastal Conservation, 4, 109–114.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bosher, L.S. (ed.), 2008: Hazards and the Built Environment: Attaining Built-in Resilience. Taylor and Francis, London.
Bouwer, L.M. and Vellinga, P., 2007: On the flood risk in the Netherlands. Advances in Natural and Technological Hazard Research, 25, 469–484.Google Scholar
Brand, F.S., and K., Jax, 2007: Focusing the meaning(s) of resilience: resilience as a descriptive concept and a boundary object. Ecology and Society, 12(1), 23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brick, T., J., Kightlinger, and D., Mann, 2010: Integrated Water Resources Plan 2010 Update. Report No. 1373, Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA.Google Scholar
Brody, S., H., Grover, E., Lindquist and A., Vedlitz, 2010: Examining climate change mitigation and adaptation behaviours among public sector organisations in the USA. Local Environment: The International Journal of Justice and Sustainability, 15(6), 591–603.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brown, C., 2010: The end of reliability. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management. March/April, 143–145.Google Scholar
Brown, C., 2011: Decision-scaling for Robust Planning and Policy under Climate Uncertainty. World Resources Report, World Resources Institute, Washington, DC, www.worldresourcesreport.org/files/wrr/papers/wrr_brown_uncertainty.pdf.Google Scholar
Brown, C. and U., Lall, 2006: Water and economic development: The role of variability and a framework for resilience. Natural Resources Forum, 30(4), 306–317.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brown, O., A., Crawford, and A., Hammill, 2006: Natural Disaster and Resource Rights: Building Resilience, Rebuilding Lives. International Institute for Sustainable Development, Winnipeg, Canada.Google Scholar
Burby, R., 2006: Hurricane Katrina and the paradoxes of government disaster policy: Bringing about wise governmental decisions for hazardous areas. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 604, 171–191.Google Scholar
Burby, R.J. and A.C., Nelson, 1991: Local government and public adaptation to sea-level rise. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 117(4), 140–163.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burton, I., R., Kates, and G., White (eds.), 1978: The Environment as Hazard. Guildford, New York, NY.
Butts, R.A., R.A., Schaalje, and G., Bruce, 1997: Impact of subzero temperatures on survival, longevity, and natality of adult Russian wheat aphid (Homoptera: Aphididae). Environmental Entomology, 26(3), 661–667.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Callaway, J. and M., Hellmuth, 2007: Assessing the incremental benefits and costs of coping with development pressure and climate change: A South African case study. Submissions from admitted non-governmental organizations on socioeconomic information under the Nairobi work programme. United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland.Google Scholar
Canham, C.D., M.J., Papaik, and E.F., Latty, 2001: Interspecific variation in susceptibility to windthrow as a function of tree size and storm severity for northern temperate tree species. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 31(1), 1–10.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cannon, S.H, R.M., Kirkham, and M., Parise, 2001: Wildfire-related debris-flow initiation processes, Storm King Mountain, CO. Geomorphology, 39, 171–188.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cannon, T., 2006: Vulnerability analysis, livelihoods and disasters. In: Risk21. Coping with Risks due to Natural Hazards in the 21st Century [Amman, W., S., Dannenmann, and L., Vulliet (eds.)]. Taylor and Francis Group, London, UK, pp. 41–50.Google Scholar
Cardona, O.D., 1986: Estudios de vulnerabilidad y evaluación del riesgo sísmico: Planificación física y urbana en áreas propensas. Boletín Técnico de la Asociación Colombiana de Ingeniería Sismica, 33(2), 32–65.Google Scholar
Cardona, O.D. 1996: Manejo ambiental y prevención de desastres: dos temas asociados. In: Ciudades en Riesgo [Fernandez, M.A. (ed.)]. La RED-USAID, Lima, Peru, pp. 79–101.Google Scholar
Cardona, O.D., 2001: Estimación Holística del Riesgo Sísmico utilizando Sistemas Dinámicos Complejos. Doctoral dissertation, Department of Terrain Engineering, Technical University of Catalonia, Spain, www.desenredando.org/public/varios/2001/ehrisusd/index.html.Google Scholar
Cardona, O.D., 2004: The Need for rethinking the concepts of vulnerability and risk from a holistic perspective: A necessary review and criticism for effective risk management. In: Mapping Vulnerability: Disa sters, Development and People [Bankoff, G., G., Frerks, and D., Hilhorst (eds.)]. Earthscan Publishers, London, UK, pp. 37–51.Google Scholar
Cardona, O.D., 2005. Indicators of Disaster Risk and Risk Management: Program for Latin America and the Caribbean – Summary Report. English and Spanish edition, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Cardona, O.D., 2008. Indicators of Disaster Risk and Risk Management: Program for Latin America and the Caribbean – Summary Report – Second Edition. English and Spanish edition, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Cardona, O.D., 2011: Disaster risk and vulnerability: Notions and measurement of human and environmental insecurity. In: Coping with Global Environmental Change, Disasters and Security – Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks [Brauch, H.G., U. Oswald, Spring, C., Mesjasz, J., Grin, P., Kameri-Mbote, B., Chourou, P., Dunay, and J., Birkmann (eds.)]. Hexagon Series on Human and Environmental Security and Peace, Vol. 5, Springer Verlag, Heidelberg, Berlin and New York, pp. 107–121.Google Scholar
Carter, T.R., R.N., Jones, X., Lu, S., Bhadwal, C., Conde, L.O., Mearns, B.C., O'Neill, M.D.A., Rounsevell, and M.B., Zurek, 2007: New Assessment Methods and the Characterisation of Future Conditions. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Parry, M.L., O.F., Canziani, J.P., Palutikof, P.J., van der Linden, and C.E., Hanson, (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 133–171.Google Scholar
Cash, D.W., W.C., Clark, F., Alcock, N.M., Dickson, N., Eckley, D.H., Guston, J., Jager, and R.B., Mitchell, 2003: Knowledge systems for sustainable development. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 100, 8086–8091.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Cash, D.W., J.C., Borck, and A.G., Patt, 2006: Countering the loading-dock approach to linking science and decision making: Comparative analysis of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasting systems. Science, Technology and Human Values, 31, 465–494.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cavazos, T., C., Turrent, and D. P., Lettenmaier, 2008: Extreme precipitation trends associated with tropical cyclones in the core of the North American monsoon. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L21703, doi:10.1029/2008GL035832.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
CCSP, 2008: Preliminary Review of Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources [Julius, S.H. and J.M., West (eds.)]. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, 873 pp.
Chen, M. (ed.), 1991: Coping with Seasonality and Drought. Sage Publications, New Delhi, India.
Chongfu, H., 1996: Fuzzy risk assessment of urban natural hazards. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 83, 271–282.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coburn, A. and R., Spence, 2002: Earthquake Protection. 2nd edition. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, UK.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cochrane, H., 2004: Economic loss: Myth and measurement. Disaster Prevention and Management, 13, 290–296.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Collins, M., 2007: Ensembles and probabilities: A new era in the prediction of climate change. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal SocietyA, 365, 1957–1970.Google Scholar
Colls, A., N., Ash, and N., Ikkala, 2009: Ecosystem-based Adaptation: a natural response to climate change. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland, 16 pp.Google Scholar
Comfort, L., 2006: Cities at risk: Hurricane Katrina and the drowning of New Orleans. Urban Affairs Review, 41(4), 501–516.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Corfee-Morlot, J., I., Cochran, S., Hallegatte, and P.-J., Teasdale, 2011: Multilevel risk governance and urban adaptation policy. Climatic Change, 104(1) (Special Issue: Understanding Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation at City Scale), 169–197.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Corporación, OSSO, La Red de Estudios Sociales en Prevención de Desastres en América Latina, 2010: DesInventar online 8.1.9-2: sistema de inventario de efectos de desastres. OSSO/La Red de Estudios Sociales en Prevención de Desastres en América Latina, Cali, Columbia, online.desinventar.org/.
Cox, P. and D., Stephenson, 2007: A changing climate for prediction. Science, 317, 207–208.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
CRED, 2010: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Data Base. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain, Belgium, www.emdat.be/Database/.
Cronin, M., C., Gonzalez, and J.D., Sterman, 2009: Why don't well-educated adults understand accumulation? A challenge to researchers, educators, and citizens. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 108(1), 116–130.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cuny, F.C., 1983: Disaster and Development. Oxford University Press, New York, NY.Google Scholar
Cutter, S.L., 1996: Vulnerability to environmental hazards. Progress in Human Geography, 20, 529–239.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cutter, S. L., L., Barners, M., Berry, C., Burton, E., Evans, E., Tate, and J., Webb, 2008: A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters, Global Environmental Change, 18, 598–606.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davies, S., 1993: Are coping strategies a cop out?Institute of Development Studies Bulletin, 24(4), 60–72.Google Scholar
Davies, S., 1996: Adaptable Livelihoods: Coping with Food Insecurity in the Malian Sahel. Macmillan Press, London, UK.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
de Bruin, K., R., Dellink, A., Ruijs, L., Bolwidt, A., van Buuren, J., Graveland, R., de Groot, P., Kuikman, S., Reinhard, R., Roetter, V., Tassone, A., Verhagen, and E., van Ierland, 2009: Adapting to climate change in The Netherlands: an inventory of climate adaptation options and ranking of alternatives. Climatic Change, 95(1), 23–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
de Freitas, C.R., 1989: The hazard potential of drought for the population of the Sahel. In: Population and Disaster [Clarke, J.I., P., Curson, S.L., Kayastha, and P., Nag (eds.)]. Blackwell, Oxford, UK, pp. 98–113.Google Scholar
de Jong, C., D., Collins, and R., Ranzi (eds.), 2005: Climate and Hydrology in Mountain Areas. John Wiley and Sons, New York, NY.CrossRef
de Vries, J., 1985: Analysis of historical climate-society interaction. In: Climate Impact Assessment [Kates, R., J., Ausubel, and M., Berberian (eds.)]. John Wiley and Sons, New York, NY.Google Scholar
Degg, M.R. and D.K., Chester, 2005: Seismic and volcanic hazards in Peru: changing attitudes to disaster mitigation. The Geographical Journal, 171, 125–145.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
del Ninno, C., P.A., Dorosh, and N., Islam, 2002: Reducing vulnerability to natural disasters – Lessons from 1998 floods in Bangladesh. Ids Bulletin–Institute of Development Studies, 33, 98–107.Google Scholar
del Ninno, C., P.A., Dorosh, and L.C., Smith, 2003: Public policy, markets and household coping strategies in Bangladesh: Avoiding a food security crisis following the 1998 floods. World Development, 31, 1221–1238.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dessai, S., and M., Hulme, 2004: Does climate adaptation policy need probabilities?Climate Policy, 4, 107–128.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dessai, S., and M., Hulme, 2007: Assessing the robustness of adaptation decisions to climate change uncertainties: A case study on water resources management in the East of England. Global Environmental Change, 17(1), 59–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dessai, S. and R., Wilby, 2011: How Can Developing Country Decision Makers Incorporate Uncertainty about Climate Risks into Existing Planning and Policymaking Processes?World Resources Report, World Resources Institute, Washington, DC, http://www.worldresourcesreport.org/files/wrr/papers/wrr_dessai_and_wilby_uncertainty.pdf.Google Scholar
Dessai, S., M., Hulme, R., Lempert, and R., Pielke Jr., 2009: Climate prediction: a limit to adaptation? In: Adapting to Climate Change: Thresholds, Values, Governance [Adger, W.N., I., Lorenzoni, and K.L., O'Brien (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.Google Scholar
DFID, 2004: Adaptation to Climate Change: Making Development Disaster Proof. Key Sheet 06, UK Department for International Development, London, UK.
DFID, 2005: Disaster Risk Reduction: A Development Concern. Policy Briefing Document, DFID-ODG, UK Department for International Development, London, UK.
Dhakal, A.S. and R.C., Sidle, 2004: Distributed simulations of landslides for different rainfall conditions, Hydrological Processes, 18(4), 757–776.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Doherty, S.J., et al., 2009: Lessons learned from IPCC AR4: Scientific developments needed to understand, predict, and respond to climate change. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90, 497–513.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Douglas, M., 1992: Risk and Blame: Essays in Cultural Theory. Routledge, London, UK and New York, NY.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Douglas, M. and A., Wildavsky, 1982: Risk and Culture: An Essay on the Selection of Technical and Environmental Dangers. University of California Press, Berkeley, CA.Google Scholar
Dow, K., 1992: Exploring differences in our common future(s): the meaning of vulnerability to global environmental change. Geoforum, 23, 417–436.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dulal, H.B., K.U., Shah, and N., Ahmad, 2009: Social equity considerations in the implementation of Caribbean climate change adaptation policies. Sustainability, 1, 363–383.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dunlap, R.E. and A.M., McCright, 2008: A widening gap: republican and democratic views on climate change. Environment, 50, 26–35.Google Scholar
Eakin, H., and A. L., Luers, 2006. Assessing the vulnerability of social-environmental systems. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 31, 365–394.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Easterling, D., G., Meehl, C., Parmesan, S., Changnon, T., Karl, and L., Mearns, 2000: Climate extremes, observations, modeling and impacts. Science, 289, 2068–2074.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
El-Baroudy, I. and S.P., Simonovic, 2004: Fuzzy criteria for the evaluation of water resources systems performance. Water Resources Research, 40(10), W10503, doi:10.1029/2003WR002828.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Emanuel, K, 2001: Contribution of tropical cyclones to meridional heat transport by the oceans. Journal of Geophysical Research, 106(D14), 14771–14781.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Emanuel, K., 2003: Tropical cyclones. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 31, 75–104.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Epstein, P., H., Diaz, S., Elias, G., Grabherr, N., Graham, W., Martens, E.M., Thompson, and J., Susskind, 1998: Biological and physical signs of climate change: focus on mosquito borne diseases. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 79, 409–417.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
ERN-AL, 2011: Probabilistic Modelling of Natural Risk at Global Level: The Hybrid Loss Exceedance Curve – Development of a Methodology and Implementation of Case Studies, Phase 1A: Colombia, Mexico, Nepal. Report for the GAR 2011, Consortium Evaluación de Riesgos Naturales – América Latina, Bogotá, Colombia.
Fink, A.H., U., Ulbrich, and H., Engel, 1996: Aspects of the January 1995 flood in Germany. Weather, 51(2), 34–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fischhoff, B., 1994: What forecasts (seem to) mean. International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 387–403.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fischhoff, B., P., Slovic, and S., Lichtenstein, 1983: The “public” vs. the “experts”: Perceived vs. actual disagreement about the risks of nuclear power. In: Analysis of Actual vs. Perceived Risks [Covello, V., G., Flamm, J., Rodericks, and R., Tardiff (eds.)]. Plenum, New York, NY, pp. 235–249.Google Scholar
Flood, R. and N., Romm, 1996: Diversity Management: Triple Loop Learning. Wiley, Chichester, UK.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Folke, C., 2006: Resilience: The emergence of a perspective for social–ecological systems analyses. Global Environmental Change, 16, 253–267.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Folke, C., F.S., Chapin III, and P., Olsson, 2009: Transformations in ecosystem stewardship. In: Principles of Ecosystem Stewardship: Resilience-Based Natural Resource Management in a Changing World [Chapin, F.S. III, G.P., Kofinas, and C., Folke (eds.)]. Springer, New York, NY, pp. 103–125.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fouillet, A., G., Rey, V., Wagner, K., Laaidi, P., Empereur-Bissonnet, A., Le Tertre, P., Frayssinet, P., Bessemoulin, F., Laurent, P., De Crouy-Chanel, E., Jougla, and D., Hemon, 2008: Has the impact of heat waves on mortality changed in France since the European heat wave of summer 2003?A study of the 2006 heat wave. International Journal of Epidemiology, 37(2), 309–317.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Füssel, H., 2007: Vulnerability: A generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research. Global Environmental Change, 17(2), 155–167.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gaillard, J.C., 2007: Resilience of traditional societies in facing natural hazard. Disaster Prevention and Management, 16, 522–544.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gaillard, J.C., 2010: Vulnerability, capacity, and resilience: Perspectives for climate and development policy. Journal of International Development. 22, 218–232.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gallopín, G.C., 2003: Box 1. A systemic synthesis of the relations between vulnerability, hazard, exposure and impact, aimed at policy identification. In: Handbook for Estimating the Socio-Economic and Environmental Effects of Disasters. Economic Commission for Latin American and the Caribbean, LC/MEX/G.S., Mexico, pp. 2–5.Google Scholar
Gallopín, G.C., 2006: Linkages between vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity. Global Environmental Change, 16, 293–303.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gasper, D., 2010: The idea of human security. In: Climate Change, Ethics and Human Security [O'Brien, K.A.L. St., Clair, and B., Kristoffersen (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 23–46.Google Scholar
Gershunov, A., D. R., Cayan, and S. F., Iacobellis, 2009: The great 2006 heat wave over California and Nevada: Signal of an increasing trend. Journal of Climate, 22, 6181–6203.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goddard, L., W., Baethgen, B., Kirtman, and G., Meehl, 2009: The urgent need for improved climate models and predictions. EOS, 90(39), 343.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gordon, J.E., 1978: Structures. Penguin Books, Harmondsworth, UK.Google ScholarPubMed
Gottschalk, M.K.E., 1971: Stormvloeden en rivieroverstromingen in Nederland Deel I (Storm surges and river floods in the Netherlands, part I). Van Gorcum, Assen, The Netherlands.Google Scholar
Gottschalk, M.K.E., 1975: Stormvloeden en rivieroverstromingen in Nederland Deel II (Storm surges and river floods in the Netherlands, part II). Van Gorcum, Assen, The Netherlands.Google Scholar
Gottschalk, M.K.E., 1977: Stormvloeden en rivieroverstromingen in Nederland Deel III (Storm surges and river floods in the Netherlands, part III). Van Gorcum, Assen, The Netherlands.Google Scholar
Groves, D.G. and R.J., Lempert, 2007: A new analytic method for finding policy-relevant scenarios. Global Environmental Change, 17, 73–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hagman, G., 1984: Prevention Better than Cure. Swedish Red Cross, Stockholm, Sweden.Google Scholar
Hallegatte, S., 2009: Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change. Global Environmental Change, 19(2), 240–247.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hargrove, R., 2002. Masterful Coaching. Revised Edition. Jossey-Bass/Pfeiffer, Wiley, San Francisco, CA, USA.Google Scholar
Hawkins, E. and R., Sutton, 2009: The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90, 1095–1107.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hegerl, G.C., F.W., Zwiers, P., Braconnot, N.P., Gillett, Y., Luo, J.A. Marengo, Orsini, N., Nicholls, J.E., Penner, and P.A., Stott, 2007: Understanding and attributing climate change. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D., Qin, M., Manning, Z., Chen, M., Marquis, K.B., Averyt, M., Tignor, and H.L., Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, pp. 663–745.Google Scholar
Heltberg, R., P.B., Siegel, and S.L., Jorgensen, 2009: Addressing human vulnerability to climate change: Toward a “no-regrets” approach. Global Environmental Change, 19(1), 89–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hertwig, R., G., Barron, E.U., Weber, and I., Erev, 2004: Decisions from experience and the effect of rare events. Psychological Science, 15, 534–539.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hewitt, K., 1983: The idea of calamity in a technocratic age. In: Interpretations of Calamity from the Viewpoint of Human Ecology [Hewitt, K. (ed.)]. Allen and Unwin, Boston, MA and London, UK, pp 3–32.Google Scholar
Hewitt, K., 1997: Regions of Risk: A Geographical Introduction to Disasters. Longman, Harlow, Essex, UK.Google Scholar
Hewitt, K., 2007: Preventable disasters: addressing social vulnerability, institutional risks and civil ethics. Geographisches Bundscahu. International Edition, 3(1), 43–52.Google Scholar
Hewitt, K. and I., Burton, 1971: The Hazardousness of a Place: A Regional Ecology of Damaging Events. University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.Google Scholar
Hine, D. and J.W., Hall, 2010: Information gap analysis of flood model uncertainties and regional frequency analysis. Water Resources Research, 46(19), W01514, doi:10.1029/2008WR007620.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hoeksma, R.J., 2006: Designed for Dry feet: Food Protection and Land Reclamation in the Netherlands. American Society of Civil Engineers, Reson, VA.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hohenemser, C., R.E., Kasperson, and R.W., Kates, 1984: Causal structure. In: Perilous Progress: Managing the Hazards of Technology [Kates, R.W., C., Hohenemser and J.X., Kasperson (eds.)]. Westview Press, Boulder, CO, pp. 25–42.Google Scholar
Holland, M.M., C.M., Bitz, and B., Tremblay, 2006: Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L23503, doi:10.1029/2006GL028024.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holling, C.S., 1973: Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 4, 1–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Horsburgh, K.J. and M., Horritt, 2006: The Bristol Channel Floods of 1607 – reconstruction and analysis. Weather, 61(10), 272–277.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huang, C., P., Vaneckova, X., Wang, G., FitzGerald, Y., Guo, and S., Tong, 2011: Constraints and barriers to public health adaptation to climate change. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 40(2), 183–190.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
HVRI, 2010: The Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States. Version 8.0 (online database). Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, www.sheldus.org.
ICSU, 2002: Resilience and Sustainable Development: Building Adaptive Capacity in a World of Transformations. Series on Science for Sustainable Development: Resilience and Sustainable Development No. 3, International Council for Science, Paris, France, 37 pp.
ICSU, 2008: A Science Plan for Integrated Research on Disaster Risk: addressing the challenge of natural and human induced environmental hazards. International Council for Science, Paris, France.
ICSU-LAC, 2009: Understanding and Managing Risk Associated with Natural Hazards: An Integrated Scientific Approach in Latin America and the Caribbean. International Council for Science Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and Mexico City, Mexico.
IDB, 2007: Disaster Risk Management Policy. GN-2354-5, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC.
IFRC, 2007. How to Do a VCA: A Practical Step-by-Step Guide for Red Cross Red Crescent Staff and Volunteers. International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies.
IIED, 2009: Natural Resilience: Healthy ecosystems as climate shock insurance. IIED Policy Brief, International Institute for Environment and Development, London, UK.
Ingram, K.T., M.C., Roncoli, and P.H., Kirshen, 2002: Opportunities and constraints for farmers of West Africa to use seasonal precipitation forecasts with Burkina Faso as a case study. Agricultural Systems, 74(3), 331–349.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
International Building Codes, 2003: International Code Council (paperback), 656 pp. ISBN 1892395568.
IPCC, 2007a: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team R.K., Pachauri, and A., Reisinger (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp.
IPCC, 2007b: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Parry, M.L., O.F., Canziani, J.P., Palutikof, P.J., van der Linden, and C.E., Hanson (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY.
IPCC, 2007c: Appendix I: Glossary. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Parry, M.L., O.F., Canziani, J.P., Palutikof, P.J., van der Linden, and C.E., Hanson (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, pp. 869–883.
IPCC, 2009. Scoping Meeting for an IPCC Special Report on Extreme Events and Disasters: Managing the Risks. Proceedings [Barros, V., et al. (eds.)]. 23-26 March 2009, Oslo, Norway.
ISO, 2009: Guide 73: 2009. Risk Management – Vocabulary. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva, Switzerland.
Jansen, V., N., Stollenwerk, H.J., Jensen, M.E., Ramsay, W.J., Edmunds, and C.J., Rhodes, 2003: Measles outbreaks in a population with declining vaccine uptake. Science, 301, 804.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jasanoff, S., 2004: States of Knowledge: The Co-Production of Science and Social Order. Routledge, London, UK.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jentsch, A., J., Kreyling, and C., Beierkuhnlein, 2007: A new generation of climate change experiments: events not trends. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 6(6), 315–324.Google Scholar
Jones, R.N. and B.L., Preston, 2011: Adaptation and Risk Management. WIREs Climate Change, 2, 296–308, doi:10.1002/wcc.97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahan, D.M. and D., Braman, 2006: Cultural cognition and public policy. Yale Law and Policy Review, 24(1), 149–172.Google Scholar
Kahan, D.M., D., Braman, J., Gastil, P., Slovic, and C.K., Mertz, 2007: Culture and identity – protective cognition: Explaining the white male effect in risk perception. Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, 4(3), 465–505.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, D. and A., Tversky, 1979: Prospect theory: An analysis of decisions under risk. Econometrica, 47, 313–327.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, D., P., Slovic, and A., Tversky (eds.), 1982: Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.CrossRef
Karimi, I. and E., Hullermeier, 2007: Risk assessment system of natural hazards: A new approach based on fuzzy probability. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 158, 987–999.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kasperson, R.E., O., Renn, P., Slovic, H.S., Brown, J., Emel, R., Goble, J.X., Kasperson, and S., Ratick, 1988: The social amplification of risk: A conceptual framework. Risk Analysis, 8, 177–187.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kates, R.W., et al., 2001: Sustainability science. Science, 292(5517), 641–642.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Keen, M., V.A., Brown, and R., Dyball, 2005: Social Learning in Environmental Management: Towards a Sustainable Future. Earthscan, London, UK.Google Scholar
Kelman, I., 2008. Relocalising disaster risk reduction for urban resilience. Urban Design and Planning, 161(DP4), 197–204.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Khan, T.A., 2011: Floods increase wheat yield in KP. Inpaper Magazine, Pakistan, 16 May 2011.Google Scholar
Klein, R.J.T, R.J., Nicholls, and F., Thomalla, 2003: Resilience to natural hazards: how useful is this concept?Global Environmental Change, 5, 35–45.Google Scholar
Knutti, R., 2010: The end of model democracy?Climatic Change, 102, 395–404.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kolb, D.A., 1984: Experiential Learning: Experience as the Source of Learning and Development. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.Google Scholar
Kolb, D.A. and R., Fry, 1975: Toward an applied theory of experiential learning. In: Theories of Group Process [Cooper, C. (ed.)]. John Wiley, London, UK, pp. 33–57.Google Scholar
Konikow, L.F. and E., Kendy, 2005: Groundwater depletion: a global problem. Hydrogeology Journal, 13, 317–320.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kunreuther, H., 2006: Disaster mitigation and insurance: Learning from Katrina. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 604(1), 208–227.Google Scholar
Kysar, D., 2004: Climate change, cultural transformation, and comprehensive rationality. Boston College Environmental Affairs Law Review, 31(3), 555–590.Google Scholar
Lamond, J.E., D.G., Proverbs, and F.N., Hammond, 2009: Accessibility of flood risk insurance in the UK: confusion, competition and complacency. Journal of Risk Research, 12, 825–841.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lau, W.K.M. and K.-M., Kim, 2011: The 2010 Pakistan flood and Russian heat wave: Teleconnection of hydrometeorologic extremes. Journal of Hydrometeorology, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-11-016.1.Google Scholar
Lavell, A., 1996: Degradación ambiental, riesgo y desastre urbano. Problemas y conceptos: hacia la definición una agenda de investigación. In: Ciudades en Riesgo [Fernandez, M.A. (ed.)]. La RED-USAID, Lima, Peru, pp. 21–59.Google Scholar
Lavell, A., 1999: Environmental degradation, risks and urban disasters. Issues and concepts: Towards the definition of a research agenda. In: Cities at Risk: Environmental Degradation, Urban Risks and Disasters in Latin America [Fernandez, M.A. (ed.)]. La RED, US AID, Quito, Ecuador, pp. 19–58.Google Scholar
Lavell, A., 2002: Riesgo y Territorio: los niveles de intervención en la Gestión del Riesgo (Risk and Territory: Levels of Intervention and Risk Management). Anuario Social y Político de América Latina y el Caribe. FLACSO-Nueva Sociedad, Latin American School of Social Sciences.Google Scholar
Lavell, A., 2003: Local level risk management: Concept and practices. CEPREDENACUNDP. Quito, Ecuador.Google Scholar
Lavell, A., 2009: Technical Study in Integrating Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management in Development Planning and Policy. Study undertaken for the Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Lavell, A., 2010: Unpacking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management: Searching for the Links and the Differences: A Conceptual and Epistemological Critique and Proposal. IUCN-FLACSO, International Union for Conservation of Nature - Latin American School of Social Sciences.Google Scholar
Lavell, A. and E., Franco (eds.), 1996: Estado, Sociedad y Gestión de los Desastres en América Latina. Red de Estudios Sociales en Prevención de Desastres en América Latina, La RED, Tercer Mundo Editores, Bogotá, Colombia.
Lavell, A. and C., Lavell, 2009: Local Disaster Risk Reduction Lessons from the Andes. Series: Significant Local Development Initiatives in the Face of Disaster Risk. General Secretariat of the Andean Community, Lima, Peru.Google Scholar
Leckebusch, G.C., D., Renggli, and U., Ulbrich, 2008: Development and application of an objective storm severity measure for the Northeast Atlantic region. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 17, 575–587.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lemos, M.C., 2003: A tale of two policies: the politics of seasonal climate forecast use in Ceará, Brazil. Policy Sciences, 32(2), 101–123.Google Scholar
Lemos, M.C., E., Boyd, E.L., Tompkins, H., Osbahr, and D., Liverman, 2007: Developing adaptation and adapting development. Ecology and Society, 12(2), 26, www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol12/iss2/art26/.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lempert, R.J. and M., Collins, 2007: Managing the risk of uncertain threshold responses: Comparison of robust, optimum, and precautionary approaches. Risk Analysis, 27(4), 1009–1026.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Lempert, R.J. and D.G., Groves, 2010: Identifying and evaluating robust adaptive policy responses to climate change for water agencies in the American west. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77, 960–974.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lempert, R.J. and M., Schlesinger, 2001: Climate-change strategy needs to be robust. Nature, 412, 375.Google Scholar
Lewcowicz, A.G. and C., Harris, 2005: Frequency and magnitude of active-layer detachment failures in discontinuous and continuous permafrost, northern Canada. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 16, 115–130.Google Scholar
Lewis, J., 1979: The vulnerable state: An alternative view. In: Disaster Assistance: Appraisal, Reform and New Approaches [Stephens, L. and S.J., Green (eds.)]. New York University Press, New York, NY, pp. 104–129.Google Scholar
Lewis, J., 1984: Environmental interpretations of natural disaster mitigation: The crucial need. The Environmentalist, 4(3), pp. 177–180.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis, J., 1999: Development in Disaster-prone Places: Studies in Vulnerability. IT Publications (Practical Action), London, UK.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis, J., 2009: An island characteristic: Derivative vulnerabilities to indigenous and exogenous hazards. Shima: The International Journal of Research into Island Cultures. 3(1), 3–15.Google Scholar
Lewis, J. and I., Kelman, 2009: Housing, flooding and risk-ecology: Thames Estuary South-Shoreland and North Kent. Journal of Architectural and Planning Research, 26(1), 14–29.Google Scholar
Lindell, M. and C., Prater, 2003: Assessing community impacts of natural disasters. Natural Hazards Review, 4(4), 176–185.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lipton, M. and M., Ravallion, 1995: Poverty and policy. In: Handbook of Development Economics, Vol. 3B [Behrman, J.S. and T.N., Srinivasan (eds.)]. Elsevier Science, Amsterdam, New York, and Oxford, pp. 2551–2657.Google Scholar
List, D., 2006: Action research cycles for multiple futures perspectives. Futures, 38, 673–684.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Loewenstein, G.F., E.U., Weber, C.K., Hsee, and E., Welch, 2001: Risk as feelings. Psychological Bulletin, 127, 267–286.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Malka, A. and J.A., Krosnick, 2009: The association of knowledge with concern about global warming: trusted information sources shape public thinking. Risk Analysis, 29, 633–647.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Manyena, S.B., 2006: The concept of resilience revisited. Disasters, 30(4), 433–450.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Maskrey, A., 1989: Disaster Mitigation: A Community Based Approach. Oxfam, Oxford, UK.Google Scholar
Maskrey, A., 2011: Revisiting community based risk management. Environmental Hazards, 10, 1–11.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mastrandrea, M.D., C.B., Field, T.F., Stocker, O., Edenhofer, K.L., Ebi, D.J., Frame, H., Held, E., Kriegler, K.J., Mach, P.R., Matschoss, G.-K., Plattner, G.W., Yohe, and F.W., Zwiers, 2010: Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties. IPCC, www.ipcc-wg2.gov/meetings/ CGCs/Uncertainties-GN_IPCCbrochure_lo.pdf.Google Scholar
McBean, G., 2006: An integrated approach to air pollution, climate and weather hazards. Policy Options, October 2006, pp. 18–24.Google Scholar
McGray, H., A., Hammill, and R., Bradley, 2007: Weathering the Storm: Options for Framing Adaptation and Development. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
McKee, T.B., N.J., Doesken, and J., Kleist, 1993: The duration of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology, 17-22 January 1993, Anaheim, California, ccc.atmos.colostate.edu/relationshipof-droughtfrequency.pdf.Google Scholar
McLaughlin, P. and T., Dietz, 2007: Structure, agency and environment: Toward an integrated perspective on vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 39(4), 99–111.Google Scholar
Means, E., M., Laugier, J., Daw, L., Kaatz, and M., Waage, 2010: Decision Support Planning Methods: Incorporating Climate Change Uncertainties into Water Planning. Water Utility Climate Alliance, San Francisco, CA, www.wucaonline.org/assets/pdf/actions_whitepaper_012110.pdf.Google Scholar
Meehl, G.A., T.F., Stocker, W.D., Collins, P., Friedlingstein, A.T., Gaye, J.M., Gregory, A., Kitoh, R., Knutti, J.M., Murphy, A., Noda, S.C.B., Raper, Watterson, I.G., A.J., Weaver and Z.-C., Zhao, 2007: Global climate projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D., Qin, M., Manning, Z., Chen, M., Marquis, K.B., Averyt, M., Tignor, and H.L., Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, pp. 747–843.Google Scholar
Mercer, J., 2010: Disaster risk reduction or climate change adaptation: are we reinventing the wheel?Journal of International Development, 22, 247–264.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mezirow, J., 1995: Transformation theory in adult learning. In: In Defense of the Life World [Welton, M.R. (ed.)]. State University of New York Press, Albany, NY, pp. 39–70.Google Scholar
Mileti, D., 1999: Disasters by Design: A Reassessment of Natural Hazards in the United States. Joseph Henry Press, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Miller, F., H., Osbahr, E., Boyd, F., Thomalla, S., Bharwani, G., Ziervogel, B., Walker, J., Birkmann, S., Van der Leeuw, J., Rockström, J., Hinkel, T., Downing, C., Folke, and D., Nelson, 2010: Resilience and vulnerability: complementary or conflicting concepts?Ecology and Society, 15(3), 11.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Milly, P.C.D., R.T., Wetherald, K.A., Dunne, and T.L., Delworth, 2002: Increasing risk of great floods in a change climate. Nature, 415, 514–517.Google Scholar
Milly, P.C.D., J., Betancourt, M., Falkenmark, R., Hirsch, Z., Kundzewicz, D., Lettenmaier, and R., Stouffer, 2008: Stationarity is dead: Whither water management?Science, 319(5863), 573–574.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Minor, J.E., 1983: Construction tradition for housing determines disaster potential from severe tropical cyclones. Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, 14, 55–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mitchell, T. and M., van Aalst, 2008: Convergence of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation. Technical Paper, October 2008, UK Department of International Development, London, UK.Google Scholar
Moench, M. and A., Dixit (eds.), 2004: Adaptive Capacity and Livelihood Resilience: Adaptive Capacities for Responding to Floods and Droughts in South Asia. Institute for Social and Environmental Transition, Boulder, CO and Nepal.
Morgan, M.G. and M., Henrion, 1990: Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morgan, M.G., H., Dowlatabadi, M., Henrion, D., Keith, R.J., Lempert, S., McBride, M., Small, and T., Wilbanks, 2009: Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Decisionmaking. Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2 of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Moser, S.C., 2009. Whether our levers are long enough and the fulcrum strong? Exploring the soft underbelly of adaptation decisions and actions. In: Adapting to Climate Change: Thresholds, Values, Governance [Adger, W.N., I., Loronzoni, and K., O'Brien (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 313–343.Google Scholar
Moser, S.C., 2010: Now more than ever: The need for more socially relevant research on vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. Applied Geography, 30(4), 464–474.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moser, S.C. and J.A., Ekstrom, 2010: Barriers to climate change adaptation: A diagnostic framework. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107(51), 22026–22031.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moser, S.C. and J.A., Ekstrom, 2011: Taking ownership of climate change: Participatory adaptation planning in two local case studies from California. Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, 1(1), 63–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moser, S.C. and A.L., Luers, 2008: Managing climate risks in California: The need to engage resource managers for successful adaptation to change. Climatic Change, 87, S309-S322.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nelson, D.R., 2005: The Public and Private Sides of Persistent Vulnerability to Drought: An Applied Model for Public Planning in Ceará, Brazil. PhD Thesis, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ.Google Scholar
Nelson, D. R., N., Adger, and K., Brown, 2007: Adaptation to environmental change: contributions of a resilience framework. The Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 32, 395–419.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nielsen, J.Ø. and A., Reenberg, 2010: Cultural barriers to climate change adaptation: A case study from Northern Burkina Faso. Global Environmental Change, 20(1), 142–152.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Noji, E., 1997: The Public Health Impacts of Disasters. Oxford University Press, New York, NY.Google Scholar
Norris, F.H., S.P., Stevens, B., Pfefferbaum, K.F., Wyche, and R.L., Pfefferbaum, 2008: Community resilience as a metaphor, theory, set of capacities, and strategy for disaster readiness. American Journal of Community Psychology, 41, 127–150CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
NRC, 2006: Facing Hazards and Disasters: Understanding Human Dimensions. National Research Council, National Academies Press, Washington DC.
NRC, 2009: Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate. Panel on Strategies and Methods for Climate-Related Decision Support, Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council, The National Academies Press, Washington, DC, 188 pp.
O'Brien, K. and R., Leichenko, 2000: Double exposure: assessing the impacts of climate change within the context of economic globalization. Global Environmental Change, 10, 221–232.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
O'Brien, K., S., Eriksen, L.P., Nygaard, and A., Schjolden, 2007: Why different interpretations of vulnerability matter in climate change discourses. Climate Policy, 7(1), 73–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
O'Keefe, P., K., Westgate, and B., Wisner, 1976: Taking the naturalness out of natural disasters. Nature, 260(5552), 566–577.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
OED, 1989: The Oxford English Dictionary. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
Olsson, P., L.H., Gunderson, S.R., Carpenter, P., Ryan, L., Lebel, C., Folke, and C.S., Holling, 2006: Shooting the rapids: navigating transitions to adaptive governance of social-ecological systems. Ecology and Society, 11(1), 18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oppenheimer, M., B.C., O'Neill, and M., Webster, 2008: Negative learning. Climatic Change, 89, 155–172.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ostertag, R., W.L., Silver, and A.E., Lugo, 2005: Factors affecting mortality and resistance to damage following hurricanes in a rehabilitated subtropical moist forest. Biotropica, 37(1), 16–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pahl-Wostl, C., 2009: A conceptual framework for analysing adaptive capacity and multi-level learning processes in resource governance regimes. Global Environmental Change, 19(3), 354.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pall, P., T., Aina, D.A., Stone, P.A., Stott, T., Nozawa, A.G., Hilberts, D., Lohmann, and M.R., Allen, 2011: Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000. Nature, 470, 382–386Google Scholar
Parson, E., V., Burkett, K., Fisher-Vanden, D., Keith, L., Means, H., Pitcher, C., Rosenzweig, and M., Webster, 2007: Global Change Scenarios: Their Development and Use. Sub-report 2.1B of Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1 by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Department of Energy, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, Washington, DC, 106 pp.Google Scholar
Pelling, M., 2003: The Vulnerability of Cities: Social Resilience and Natural Disaster. Earthscan, London, UK.Google Scholar
Pelling, M., 2010: Adaptation to Climate Change: From Resilience to Transformation. Routledge, London, UK.Google Scholar
Pelling, M., A., Özerdem, and S., Barakat, 2002: The Macroeconomic impact of disasters. Progress in Development Studies, 2, 283–305.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pelling, M., C., High, J., Dearing, and D., Smith, 2008: Shadow spaces for social learning: a relational understanding of adaptive capacity to climate change within organisations. Environment and PlanningA, 40(4), 867–884.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pendalla, R., K.A., Foster, and M., Cowella, 2010: Resilience and regions: building understanding of the metaphor. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 3(1), 71–84Google Scholar
Peschl, M.F., 2007: Triple-loop learning as foundation for profound change, individual cultivation, and radical innovation. Construction processes beyond scientific and rational knowledge. Constructivist Foundations, 2(2–3), 136–145.Google Scholar
Peters, G., A.M., DiGioia Jr., C., Hendrickson, and J., Apt, 2006: Transmission Line Reliability: Climate Change and Extreme Weather. Carnegie Mellon Electricity Industry Center Working Paper CEIC-05-06, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA.Google Scholar
Peters, O., C., Hertlein, and K., Christensen, 2001: A complexity view of rainfall. Physical Review Letters, 88, 018701, doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.88.018701.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Pettengell, C., 2010: Climate Change Adaptation: Enabling People Living in Poverty to Adapt. Oxfam International Research Report, Oxfam International, Oxford, UK.Google Scholar
Piao, S., P., Ciais, Y., Huang, Z., Shen, S., Peng, J., Li, L., Zhou, H., Liu, Y., Ma, Y., Ding, P., Friedlingstein, C., Liu, K., Tan, Y., Yu, T., Zhang, and J., Fang, 2010: The impact of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature, 467, 43–51.Google Scholar
Pidgeon, N. and B., Fischhoff, 2011: The role of social and decision sciences in communicating uncertain climate risks. Nature Climate Change, 1, 35–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pielke, R.A. Jr., 2007: Future economic damage from tropical cyclones: sensitivities to societal and climate changes. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal SocietyA, 365(1860), 2717–2729.Google Scholar
Pohl, C., S., Rist, A., Zimmermann, P., Fry, G.S., Gurung, F., Schneider, C. Ifejika, Speranza, B., Kiteme, S., Boillat, E., Serrano, G. Hirsch, Hadorn, and U., Wiesmann, 2010: Researchers' roles in knowledge co-production: experience from sustainability research in Kenya, Switzerland, Bolivia and Nepal. Science and Public Policy, 37(4), 267–281.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Quarantelli, E.L, 1986: Disaster Crisis Management. Preliminary Papers 113, University of Delaware, Disaster Research Center. Newark, DE, http://dspace.udel.edu:8080/dspace/handle/19716/487.Google Scholar
Ramírez, F. and O.D., y Cardona, 1996: Sistema nacional para la prevención y atención de desastres de Colombia, Estado, sociedad y gestión de los desastres en América Latina. In: Red de Estudios Sociales en Prevención de Desastres en América Latina [Lavell, A. and E., y Franco (eds.)]. Tercer Mundo Editores, Bogotá, Colombia.Google Scholar
Ranger, N. and S.-L., Garbett-Shiels, 2011: How can Decision-Makers in Developing Countries Incorporate Uncertainty about Future Climate Risks into Existing Planning and Policymaking Processes? Policy Paper, Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy and Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment in collaboration with the World Resources Report, World Resources Institute, Washington, DC, www.worldresourcesreport.org/files/wrr/papers/wrr_ranger_uncertainty.pdf.Google Scholar
Rayner, S., D., Lach, and H., Ingram, 2005: Weather forecasts are for wimps: Why water resource managers do not use climate forecasts. Climatic Change, 69, 197–227.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reeder, T. and N., Ranger, 2011: How Do You Adapt In an Uncertain World? Lessons from the Thames Estuary 2100 Project. World Resources Report, World Resources Institute, Washington, DC, www.worldresourcesreport.org/files/wrr/papers/wrr_reeder_and_ranger_uncertainty.pdf.Google Scholar
Rees, H.G. and D.N., Collins, 2006: Regional differences in response of flow in glacier-fed Himalayan rivers. Hydrological Processes, 20(10), 2157–2169.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Renn, O., 2008: Risk Governance. Coping with Uncertainty in a Complex World. Earthscan, London, UK.Google Scholar
Rich, P.M., D.D., Breshears, and A.B., White, 2008: Phenology of mixed woody-herbaceous ecosystems. Ecology, 89(2), 342–352.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Risbey, J., M., Kandlikar, H., Dowlatabadi, and D., Graetz, 1999: Scale, context, and decision making in agricultural adaptation to climate variability and change. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 4(2), 137–165.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rose, A., 2004: Economic principles, issues, and research priorities in hazard loss estimation. In: Modeling Spatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters [Okuyama, Y. and S., Chang (eds.)]. Springer, Berlin, Germany, pp. 14–36.Google Scholar
Sarewitz, D., R.A., Pielke Jr., and R., Byerly Jr., (eds.), 2000: Prediction: Science, Decision Making, and the Future of Nature. Island Press, Washington, DC, 405 pp.
Savage, L.J., 1972: Foundations of Statistics. Dover Publications, New York, NY.Google Scholar
Schipper, L., 2009: Meeting at the crossroads? Exploring the linkages between climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Climate and Development, 1, 16–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schipper, L. and I., Burton (eds.), 2009: The Earthscan Reader on Adaptation to Climate Change. Earthscan, London, UK.
Schipper, L. and M., Pelling, 2006: Disaster risk, climate change and international development: scope for, and challenges to, integration. Disasters, 30(1), 19–38.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Schneider, S.H., S., Semenov, A., Patwardhan, I., Burton, C.H.D., Magadza, M., Oppenheimer, A.B., Pittock, A., Rahman, J.B., Smith, A., Suarez, and F., Yamin, 2007: Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Parry, M.L., O.F., Canziani, J.P., Palutikof, P.J., van der Linden, and C.E., Hanson, (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 779–810.Google Scholar
Sen, A.K., 1983: Poverty and famines: an essay on entitlement and deprivation. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Seneviratne, S.I., D., Lüthi, M., Litschi, and C., Schär, 2006: Land-atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe. Nature, 443, 205–209.Google Scholar
Shapiro, M., J., Shukla, G., Brunet, C., Nobre, M., Beland, R., Dole, K., Trenberth, R., Anthes, G., Asrar, L., Barrie, P., Bougeault, G., Brasseur, D., Burridge, A., Busalacchi, J., Caughey, D., Chen, J., Church, T., Enomoto, B., Hoskins, O., Hov, A., Laing, H., Le Treut, J., Marotzke, G., McBean, G., Meehl, M., Miller, B., Mills, J., Mitchell, M., Moncrieff, T., Nakazawa, H., Olafsson, T., Palmer, D., Parsons, D., Rogers, A., Simmons, A., Troccoli, Z., Toth, L., Uccellini, C., Velden, and J.M., Wallace, 2010: An earth-system prediction initiative for the twenty-first century. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 91, 1377–1388.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shukla, J., R., Hagedorn, B., Hoskins, J., Kinter, J., Marotzke, M., Miller, T.N., Palmer, and J., Slingo, 2009: Revolution in climate prediction is both necessary and possible: A declaration at the World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90, 175–178.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Simonovic, S.P., 2010: Systems Approach to Management of Disasters: Methods and Applications. John Wiley and Sons, New York, NY, 348 pp.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sjöberg, L., 1999a: Risk perception by the public and by experts: A dilemma in risk management. Human Ecology Review, 6(2).Google Scholar
Sjöberg, L., 1999b: Consequences of perceived risk: Demand for mitigation. Journal of Risk Research, (2), 129–149.Google Scholar
Slovic, P., 1993: Perceived risk, trust, and democracy. Risk Analysis, 13(6), 675–676.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Slovic, P. (ed.), 2000: The Perception of Risk. Earthscan, Sterling, VA.
Slovic, P. (ed.), 2010: The Feeling of Risk: New Perspectives on Risk Perception. Earthscan, London, UK.
Slovic, P., B., Fischhoff, and S., Lichtenstein, 1982. Facts versus fears: Understanding perceived risk. In: Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases [Kahneman, D., P., Slovic, and A., Tversky (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.Google Scholar
Smit, B. and O., Pilifosova, 2003. From adaptation to adaptive capacity and vulnerability reduction. In: Climate Change, Adaptive Capacity and Development [Smith, J.B., R.J.T., Klein, and S., Huq (eds.)]. Imperial College Press, London, UK.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smit, B. and J., Wandel, 2006: Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 16, 282–292.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, K., 1996: Environmental Hazards: Assessing Risk and Reducing Disaster. Second Edition. Routledge, London, UK.Google Scholar
Sperling, F. and F., Szekely, 2005: Disaster Risk Management in a Changing Climate. Discussion Paper prepared for the World Conference on Disaster Reduction on behalf of the Vulnerability and Adaptation Resource Group, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Stainforth, D.A., M.R., Allen, E.R., Tredger, and L.A., Smith, 2007: Confidence, uncertainty, and decision-support relevance in climate predictions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal SocietyA, 365, 2145–2161.Google Scholar
Sterman, J.D., 2000: Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin/McGraw-Hill, Boston, MA.Google Scholar
Sterman, J.D., 2006: Learning from evidence in a complex world. American Journal of Public Health, 96(3), 505–514.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sterman, J.D., 2008: Risk communication on climate: mental models and mass balance. Science, 322(5901), 532–533.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Stott, P.A., D.A., Stone, and M.R., Allen, 2004: Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature, 432, 610–614.Google Scholar
Sui, J. and G., Koehler, 2001: Rain-on-snow induced flood events in Southern Germany. Journal of Hydrology, 252(1–4), 205–220.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thomalla, F., T., Downing, E., Spanger-Siegfried, G., Han and J., Rockström, 2006: Reducing hazard vulnerability: towards a common approach between disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation. Disasters, 30(1), 39–48.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Timmerman, P., 1981: Vulnerability, Resilience and Collapse in Society. Environmental Monograph No. 1, Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.Google Scholar
Tobin, G.A. and B.E., Montz, 1997: Natural Hazards: Explanation and Integration. The Guildford Press, London, UK.Google Scholar
Tompkins, E.L., M.C., Lemos, and E., Boyd, 2008: A less disastrous disaster: Managing response to climate-driven hazards in the Cayman Islands and NE Brazil. Global Environmental Change – Human and Policy Dimensions, 18, 736–745.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Torry, W., 1979: Intelligence, resilience and change in complex social systems: famine management in India. Mass Emergencies, 2, 71–85.Google Scholar
TRB, 2008: The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation. Special Report 290, Transportation Research Board, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC. (See Appendix C: Commissioned paper: Climate Variability and Change with Implications for U.S. Transportation, Dec. 2006).
Tversky, A., and Kahneman, D., 1974: Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 1124–1131.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Twigg, J., 2004: Disaster Risk Reduction: Mitigation and Preparedness in Development and Emergency Programming. Overseas Development Institute, London, UK.Google Scholar
Ulbrich, U., A.H., Fink, M., Klawa, and J.G., Pinto, 2001: Three extreme storms over Europe in December 1999. Weather, 56, 70–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
UNDP, 2004: Reducing Disaster Risk: A Challenge for Development. A Global Report. United Nations Development Programme, New York, NY.
UNEP, 1972: Declaration of the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi, Kenya.
UNISDR, 2005: Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015. Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland.
UNISDR, 2008a: Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction. Briefing Note 01, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland.
UNISDR, 2008b: Indigenous Knowledge for Disaster Risk Reduction - Good Practices and Lessons Learned from Experiences in the Asia-Pacific Region. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Bangkok, Thailand.
UNISDR, 2008c: Linking Disaster Risk Reduction and Poverty Reduction, Good Practices and Lessons Learned. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, UNDP, Geneva, Switzerland.
UNISDR, 2009a: Adaptation to Climate Change by Reducing Disaster Risk: Country Practices and Lessons. Briefing Note 02, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland.
UNISDR, 2009b: Reducing Disaster Risk through Science: Issues and Actions. Full Report of the Scientific and Technical Committee 2009, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland.
UNISDR, 2009c: After Action Review: Second Session Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland.
UNISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction), 2009d: Terminology: Basic Terms of Disaster Risk Reduction. UNISDR, Geneva, Switzerland, www.unisdr.org/eng/library/lib-terminology-eng%20home.htm.
UNISDR, 2009e: Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Risk and Poverty in a Changing Climate – Invest Today for a Safer Tomorrow. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland, 207 pp.
UNISDR, 2011: Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Revealing Risk, Redefining Development. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland.
Vale, L.J. and T.J., Campanella, 2005: The Resilient City: How Modern Cities Recover from Disaster. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.Google Scholar
van Baars, S. and I.M., Van Kempen, 2009: The causes and mechanisms of historical dike failures in the Netherlands. E-Water Official Publication of the European Water Association, Hennef, Germany, 14 pp., www.dwa.de/portale/ewa/ewa.nsf/C125723B0047EC38/8428F628AB57BECFC125766C003024B6/$FILE/Historical%20Dike%20Failures.pdf.Google Scholar
van Kerkhoff, L. and L., Lebel, 2006: Linking knowledge and action for sustainable development. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 31, 445–477.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van Niekerk, D., 2007: Disaster risk reduction, disaster risk management and disaster management: Academic rhetoric or practical reality?Disaster Management South Africa, 4(1), 6.Google Scholar
Vandentorren, S., F., Suzan, S., Medina, M., Pascal, A., Maulpoix, J.C., Cohen, and M., Ledrans, 2004: Mortality in 13 French cities during the August 2003 heat wave. American Journal of Public Health, 94(9), 1518–1520.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Venton, P. and S., La Trobe, 2008: Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction. Technical Paper, Tearfund, Teddington, UK.Google Scholar
Walker, B.H., J.M., Anderies, A.P., Kinzig, and P., Ryan (eds), 2006: Exploring Resilience in Social-Ecological Systems: Comparative Studies and Theory Development. CSIRO Publishing, Collingwood, Australia.
Walker, W.E., A.W., Vincent, J., Marchau, and D., Swanson, 2010: Addressing deep uncertainty using adaptive policies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77, 917–923.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walshaw, D., 2000: Modelling extreme wind speeds in regions prone to hurricanes. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C (Applied Statistics), 49, 51–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Watts, M., 1983: On the poverty of theory: natural hazards research in context. In: Interpretations of Calamity [Hewitt, K. (ed.)]. Allen and Unwin, Boston, MA, pp. 231–262.Google Scholar
Weber, E.U., 2006: Experience-based and description-based perceptions of long-term risk: why global warming does not scare us (yet). Climatic Change, 77, 103–120.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weber, E.U., 2010: What shapes perceptions of climate change?Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 1, 332–342.Google Scholar
Weber, E.U. and P.C., Stern, 2011: Public understanding of climate change in the United States. American Psychologist, 66(4), 315–328.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Weber, E.U., S., Shafir, and A.R., Blais, 2004: Predicting risk-sensitivity in humans and lower animals: Risk as variance or coefficient of variation. Psychological Review, 111, 430–445.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Weichselgartner, J., 2001: Disaster mitigation: the concept of vulnerability revisited. Disaster Prevention and Management, 10(2), 85–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Werner, E.E., J.M., Bierman, and F.E., French, 1971: The Children of Kauai Honolulu. University of Hawaii Press, Honolulu, Hawaii.Google Scholar
Westerling, A.L. and T.W., Swetman, 2003: Interannual to decadal drought and wildfire in the Western United States. EOS, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 84(49), 545–555, doi:10.1029/2003EO490001.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wheater, H.S., 2002: Progress in and prospects for fluvial flood modeling. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal SocietyA, 360, 1409–1431.Google Scholar
Wijkman, A. and L., Timberlake, 1988: Natural Disasters: Acts of God or Acts of Man?New Society Publishers, Philadelphia, PA.Google Scholar
Wilby, R.L. and S., Dessai, 2010: Robust adaptation to climate change. Weather, 65(7), 180–185.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wisner, B., P., O'Keefe, and K., Westgate, 1977: Global systems and local disasters: the untapped power of peoples' science. Disasters, 1(1), 47–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wisner, B., P., Blaikie, T., Cannon, and I., Davis, 2004: At Risk: Natural Hazards, People's Vulnerability, and Disasters, 2nd edition. Routledge, London, UK.Google Scholar
Wisner, B., J.C., Gaillard, and I., Kellman (eds.), 2011: Handbook of Hazards and Disaster Risk Reduction. Routledge, London, UK.
WMO, 2010: Understanding Climate. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, www.wmo.int/pages/themes/climate/understanding_climate.php.
World Bank, 2001: World Development Report 2000-2001. World Bank, Washington, DC.
World Bank, 2009: World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change. World Bank, Washington, DC.
WRI (World Resources Institute), United Nations Development Programme, United Nations Environment Programme, and World Bank, 2008: World Resources 2008: Roots of Resilience: Growing the Wealth of the Poor. WRI, Washington, DC.
Xie, L., L.J., Pietrafesa, and M., Peng, 2004: Incorporation of a mass-conserving inundation scheme into a three dimensional storm surge model. Journal of Coastal Research, 20, 1209–1233.Google Scholar
Yohe, G. and R.S.J., Tol, 2002: Indicators for social and economic coping capacity – moving toward a working definition of adaptive capacity. Global Environmental Change, 12(1), 25–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Young, P.C. 2002: Advances in real-time flood forecasting. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, A360, 1433–1450.Google Scholar
Zipser, E.J., D.J., Cecil, C., Liu, S.W., Nesbitt and D.P., Yorty, 2006: Where are the most intense thunderstorms on Earth?Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87, 1057–1071.CrossRefGoogle Scholar