When John Cain won the state election of April 1982 and led the Labor Party into office for the first time since his father's defeat in 1955, he had a prospect of inaugurating Labor's first long period of success in Victoria. He won the following two elections, each by a narrow margin. Ruling for as long as the combined reign of all the previous Labor premiers of Victoria, he did not take his success for granted. He seemed the picture of caution. For years there were few signs that his fortunes would change dramatically or that Victoria would be deluged by a tidal wave consisting of political folly, folly in big business, and a certain amount of sheer misfortune.

John Cain's term of office began with natural disasters. Nearly four decades of rural progress was reversed. Wheat, the most important crop, had first touched three million tons in the harvest of 1979–80. But so severe was the drought during Cain's first summer in office that Victoria harvested a mere 400 000 tons. It was the worst drought since the Second World War and the worst harvest for decades. Drought increased the prospect of bushfires. The year 1983 experienced the second driest February on record. Forests exploded into fire. Fires raced across the Wyperfeld National Park in the west and Cann River in the east. On 16 February 1983 – Ash Wednesday – hot northerlies were blowing and the humidity was low. As the day went on, bushfires ran wild in Mount Macedon, the Dandenongs, Warburton, the Otways and country to the east of Warrnambool. Late that afternoon and in the evening, several fires changed course sharply after the arrival of a south-westerly wind blowing at speeds as high as 75 miles an hour. So huge were the freshly fanned fires that Melbourne itself, though a safe distance from the closest fire, was filled at nightfall with smoke and the scent of burning eucalypt. In the space of a few days these fires killed forty-eight people and destroyed 1761 houses. For several weeks the danger of other forests and grasslands catching fire was high. At last, on 21 March, heavy rain began to soak most parts of Victoria, thus ending the driest 11 months ever recorded in most districts.