References

Abarbanell, J. S., & Bernard, V. L. (1992). Tests of analysts overreaction/underreaction to earnings information as an explanation for anomalous stock price behavior. Journal of Finance, 47, 1181–1207. [38] Google Scholar

Abell, G. O. (1981). Astrology. In Science and the paranormal: Probing the existence of the supernatural (pp. 70–94), G. O. Abell & B. Singer (Eds.). New York: Charles Scribner & Sons. [34] Google Scholar

Adams, E. W. (1975). The logic of conditionals. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: D. Reidel. [3] Google Scholar

Adelmann, P., & Zajonc, R. (1989). Facial efference and the experience of emotion. Annual Review of Psychology, 40, 249–280. [5] Google ScholarPubMed

Adler, J. E. (1984). Abstraction is uncooperative. Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour, 14, 165–181. [24] Google Scholar

Adler, J. E. (1991). An optimist's pessimism: Conversation and conjunctions. In Probability and rationality: Studies on L. Jonathan Cohen's philosophy of science (pp. 251–282), E. Eells & T. Maruszewski (Eds.). Amsterdam: Editions Rodopi. [24] Google Scholar

Affleck, G., & Tennen, H. (1996). Construing benefits from adversity: Adaptational significance and dispositional underpinnings. Journal of Personality, 64, 899–922. [16] Google ScholarPubMed

Agnoli, F. (1991). Development of judgmental heuristics and logical reasoning: Training counteracts the representativeness heuristic. Cognitive Development, 6, 195–217. [2] Google Scholar

Agnoli, F., & Krantz, D. H. (1989). Suppressing natural heuristicsbyformal instruction: The case of the conjunction fallacy. Cognitive Psychology, 21, 515–550. [2] Google Scholar

Ahlers, D., & Lakonishok, J. (1983). A study of economists' consensus forecasts. Management Science, 29, 1113–1125. [38] Google Scholar

Ainslie, G. (1992). Picoeconomics: The strategic interaction of successive motivational states within the person. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [16] Google Scholar

Ajzen, I. (1977). Intuitive theories of events and the effects of base rate information on prediction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 35, 303–314. [1, 24] Google Scholar

Ajzen, I. (1991). The theory of planned behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 50, 179–211. [14] Google Scholar

Ajzen, I., & Madden, T. J. (1986). Prediction of goal-directed behavior: Attitudes, intentions, and perceived behavioral control. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 22, 453–474. [14] Google Scholar

Alhakami, A. S., & Slovic, P. (1994). A psychological study of the inverse relationship between perceived risk and perceived benefit. Risk Analysis, 14 (6), 1085–1096. [23] Google Scholar

Alicke, M. D., Klotz, M. L., Breitenbecher, D. L., Yurak, T. J., & Vredenburg, D. S. (1995). Personal contact, individuation, and the better-than-average effect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 68, 804–825. [27,36] Google Scholar

Alker, H., & Hermann, M. (1971). Are Bayesian decisions artificially intelligent? The effect of task and personality on conservatism in information processing. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 19, 31–41. [24] Google Scholar

Allen, S. W., & Brooks, L. R. (1991). Specializing the operation of an explicit rule. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 120, 3–19. [22] Google Scholar

Allison, S. T., & Beggan, J. K. (1994). Estimating popular support for group decision outcomes: An anchoring and adjustment model. Journal of Social Behavior & Personality, 9, 617–638. [6] Google Scholar

Allison, S. T., & Messick, D. M. (1990). Social decision heuristics and the use of shared resources. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 3, 195–204. [30] Google Scholar

Alpert, M., & Raiffa, H. (1982). A progress report on the training of probability assessors. In Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 294–305), D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [13,15] Google Scholar

Amir, E., & Ganzach, Y. (1998). Overreaction and underreaction in analysts' forecasts. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 37, 333–347. [38] Google Scholar

Andersen, S. M., & Ross, L. (1984). Self knowledge and social inference: I. The impact of cognitive/affective and behavioral data. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 46, 280–293. [36] Google Scholar

Andersen, S. M. (1984). Self knowledge and social inference: II. The diagnosticity of cognitive/affective and behavioral data. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 46, 294–307. [36] Google Scholar

Anderson, C. A. (1983a). Abstract and concrete data in the perseverance of social theories: When weak data lead to unshakeable beliefs. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 19, 93–108. [20] Google Scholar

Anderson, C. A. (1983b). Imagination and expectation: The effect of imagining behavioral scripts on personal intentions. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 45, 293–305. [4,17,19] Google Scholar

Anderson, C. A., Lepper, M. R., & Ross, L. (1980). Perseverance of social theories: The role of explanation in the persistence of discredited information. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39, 1037–1049. [4] Google Scholar

Anderson, J. R. (1983). A spreading activation theory of memory. Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, 22, 261–295. [20] Google Scholar

Anderson, N. H. (1968). Likableness ratings of 555 personality-trait words. Journal of Personalility and Social Psychology, 9, 272–279. [18] Google ScholarPubMed

Anderson, N. H. (1981). Foundations of information integration theory. New York: Academic Press. [20, 23] Google Scholar

Anderson, N. H. (1991). Contributions to Information Integration Theory. Vol. I: Cognition. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [2] Google Scholar

Anderson, N. H. (1996). A functional theory of cognition. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [2] Google Scholar

Andrews, F. M., & Robinson, J. P. (1991). Measures of subjective well-being. InMeasures of personality and social psychological attitudes (Vol. 1, pp. 61–114), J. P. Robinson, P. R. Shaver, & L. S. Wrightsman (Eds.), San Diego: Academic Press. [16] Google Scholar

Angier, N. (1999). Woman: An intimate geography. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company. [30] Google Scholar

Appadurai, A. (1981). Gastro-politics in Hindu South Asia. American Ethnologist, 8, 494–511. [11] Google Scholar

Appley, M. H. (Ed.). (1971). Adaptation-level theory: A symposium. New York: Academic Press. [20] Google Scholar

Ariely, D. (1998). Combining experiences over time: The effects of duration, intensity changes and on-line measurements on retrospective pain evaluations. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 11, 19–45. [2] Google Scholar

Ariely, D. (2001). Seeing sets: Representation by statistical properties. Psychological Science, 12 (2), 157–162. [2] Google ScholarPubMed

Ariely, D., Kahneman, D., & Loewenstein, G. (2000). Joint comment on “When does duration matter in judgment and decision making?” (Ariely & Loewenstein, 2000). Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 129, 524–529. [2] Google Scholar

Ariely, D., & Loewenstein, G. (2000). When does duration matter in judgment and decision making? Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 129, 508–523. [2] Google ScholarPubMed

Arkes, H. R. (1991). Costs and benefits of judgment errors: Implications for debiasing. Psychological Bulletin, 110, 486–498. [6] Google Scholar

Arkes, H. R. (2001). Overconfidence in judgmental forecasting. In Principles of forecasting handbook (pp. 495–515), J. S. Armstrong (Ed.). Boston: Kluwer. [41] Google Scholar

Arkes, H. R., & Blumer, C. (1985). The psychology of sunk cost. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 35, 125–140. [32] Google Scholar

Arkes, H. R., Dawson, N. V., Speroff, T., Harrell, F. E. Jr., Alzola, C., Phillips, R., Desbiens, N., Oye, R. K., Knaus, W., Connors, A. F. Jr., & the SUPPORT Investigators (1995). The covariance decomposition of the probability score and its use in evaluating prognostic estimates. Medical Decision Making, 15, 120–131. [39] Google ScholarPubMed

Arkes, H. R., Faust, D., Guilmette, T. J., & Hart, K. (1988). Eliminating the hindsight bias. Journal of Applied Psychology, 73, 305–307. [6, 14] Google Scholar

Arkes, H. R., Wortmann, R. L., Saville, P. D., & Harkness, A. R. (1981). Hindsight bias among physicians weighing the likelihood of diagnoses. Journal of Applied Psychology, 66, 252–254. [40] Google ScholarPubMed

Arkin, R. A., & Duval, S. (1975). Effects of focus of attention on the causal attributions of actors and observers. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 11, 427–438. [20] Google Scholar

Armor, D. A. (1998). The illusion of objectivity: A bias in the perception of freedom from bias. Doctoral dissertation, University of California, Los Angeles. [36] Google Scholar

Armor, D. A., & Taylor, S. E. (1998). Situated optimism: Specific outcome expectancies and self-regulation. In Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 30, pp. 309- 379), M. P. Zanna (Ed.). New York: Academic Press. [14] Google Scholar

Armor, D. A., & Taylor, S. E. (2000). Mindset, prediction, and performance: Self-regulation in deliberative and implemental frames of mind. Unpublished manuscript, Yale University. [19] Google Scholar

Armstrong, J. S. (Ed.). (2001). Principles of forecasting handbook. Boston: Kluwer. [41] Google Scholar

Aronson, E. (1969). The theory of cognitive dissonance: A current perspective. In Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 4, pp. 1–34), L. Berkowitz (Ed.). New York: Academic Press. [36] Google Scholar

Aronson, E., & Carlsmith, J. M. (1962). Performance expectancy as a determinant of actual performance. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 65, 178–186. [19] Google ScholarPubMed

Aronson, E., & Mills, J. (1959). The effect of severity of initiation on liking for a group. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 59, 177–181. [Introduction] Google Scholar

Ashby, F. G., Alfonso-Reese, L. A., Turken, A. U., & Waldron, E. M. (1998). A neuro-psychological theory of multiple systems in category learning. Psychological Review, 105, 442–481. [22] Google Scholar

Ashby, F. G., Isen, A. M., & Turken, A. U. (1999). A neuropsychological theory of positive affect and its influence on cognition. Psychological Review, 106, 529–550. [29] Google ScholarPubMed

Ashton, R. H. (1992). Effects of justification and a mechanical aid on judgment performance. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 52, 292–306. [32] Google Scholar

Aspinwall, L. G., Kemeny, M. E., Taylor, S. E., Schneider, S. G., & Dudley, J. P. (1991). Psychological predictors in gay men's AIDS risk-reduction behavior. Health Psychology, 10, 432–444. [19] Google Scholar

Aspinwall, L. G., & Richter, L. (1999). Optimism and self-mastery predict more rapid disengagement from unsolvable tasks in the presence of alternatives. Motivation and Emotion, 23, 221–245. [19] Google Scholar

Astington, J., Harris, P., & Olson, D. (Eds.). (1988). Developing theories of mind. New York: Cambridge University Press. [8] Google Scholar

Atkinson, J. W. (1964). An introduction to motivation. Princeton, NJ: Van Nostrand. [19, 35] Google Scholar

Au, T. K. (1993). Developing an intuitive understanding of conservation and contamination. Developmental Psychology, 29, 286–299. [11] Google Scholar

Ayton, P. (1992). On the competence and incompetence of experts. In Expertise and decision support (pp. 77–105), G. Wright & F. Bolger (Eds.). Plenum Press: New York. [39] Google Scholar

Ayton, P. (1997). How to be incoherent and seductive: Bookmakers' odds and support theory. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 72, 99–115. [27] Google Scholar

Ayton, P. (1998). How bad is human judgment? In Forecasting with judgment, G. Wright & P. Goodwin (Eds.). West Sussex, England: John Wiley & Sons. [2] Google Scholar

Ayton, P., & Hardman, D. (1997). Are two rationalities better than one? Current Psychology of Cognition, 16, 39–51. [24] Google Scholar

Ayton, P., & Onkal, D. (1996). Effects of expertise on forecasts and confidence in forecast. Paper presented at the International Symposium on Forecasting, Istanbul, Turkey. [39] Google Scholar

Baker, L. A., & Emery, R. E. (1993). When every relationship is above average: Perceptions and expectations of divorce at the time of marriage. Law and Human Behavior, 17, 439–450. [19] Google Scholar

Baker, N. (1991). Room temperature. New York: Vintage. [35] Google Scholar

Bandura, A. (1977). Self-efficacy: Toward a unifying theory of behavioral change. Psychological Review, 84, 191–215. [19, 36] Google Scholar

Bandura, A. (1997). Self efficacy: The exercise of control. New York: W. H. Freeman and Company. [19] Google Scholar

Bankhart, C. P., & Elliot, R. (1974). Heart rate and skin conductance in anticipation of shocks with varying probability of occurrence. Psychophysiology, 11, 160–174. [30] Google Scholar

Bar-Hillel, M. (1973). On the subjective probability of compound events. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 9, 396–406. [1] Google Scholar

Bar-Hillel, M. (1980). The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments. Acta Psychologica, 44, 211–233. [24] Google Scholar

Bar-Hillel, M. (1983). The base rate fallacy controversy. In Decision making under uncertainty (pp. 39–61), R. W. Scholz (Ed.). Amsterdam: North-Holland. [13] Google Scholar

Bar-Hillel, M. (1990). Back to base rates. In Insights into decision making: A tribute to Hillel J. Einhorn (pp. 200–216), R. M. Hogarth (Ed.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [24] Google Scholar

Bar-Hillel, M., & Fischhoff, B. (1981). When do base-rates affect predictions? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 41, 671–680. [2] Google Scholar

Bar-Hillel, M., & Neter, E. (1993). How alike is it versus how likely is it: A disjunction fallacy in probability judgments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65, 1119–1131. [Introduction, 2, 25, 26] Google Scholar

Baranski, J. V., & Petrusic, W. M. (1994). The calibration and resolution of confidence in perceptual judgments. Perception and Psychophysics, 55, 412–428. [39] Google ScholarPubMed

Barefield, R. M., & Comiskey, E. E. (1975). The accuracy of analysts' forecasts of earnings per share. Journal of Business Research, 3, 241–252. [19] Google Scholar

Bargh, J. A. (1982). Attention and automaticity in the processing of self-relevant information. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 43, 425–436. [9] Google Scholar

Bargh, J. A. (1997). The automaticity of everyday life. In The automaticity of everyday life. R. S. Wyer, Jr. (Ed.). In The automaticity of everyday life: Advances in social cognition (Vol. 10, pp. 1–61). R. S. Wyer, Jr. (Ed.). Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum. [Introduction, 2, 30] Google Scholar

Bargh, J. A., Bond, R. N., Lombardi, W. J., & Tota, M. E. (1986). The additive nature of chronic and temporary sources of construct accessibility. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 50 (5), 869–878. [2] Google Scholar

Bargh, J. A., & Chartrand, T. L. (1999). The unbearable automaticity of being. American Psychologist, 54, 462–479. [Introduction] Google Scholar

Baron, J. (1992). The effect of normative beliefs on anticipated emotions. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 63, 320–330. [16] Google ScholarPubMed

Baron, J. (1993). Morality and rational choice. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer. [24] Google Scholar

Baron, J. (1994a). Nonconsequentialist decisions. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 17, 1–42. [24] Google Scholar

Baron, J. (1994b). Thinking and Deciding, 2nd ed. New York: Cambridge University Press. [6] Google Scholar

Baron, J. (1997). Confusion of relative and absolute risk in valuation. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 14, 301–309. [23] Google Scholar

Baron, J. (1998). Judgment misguided: Intuition and error in public decision making. New York: Oxford University Press. [24,39] Google Scholar

Baron, J., & Brown, R. (Eds.). (1991) Teaching decision making to adolescents. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum. [41] Google Scholar

Barone, D. F., Maddux, J. E., & Snyder, C. R. (1997). Social cognitive psychology: History and current domains, New York: Plenum Press. [Introduction] Google Scholar

Barrett, S. (1987). Homeopathy: Is it medicine? Skeptical Inquirer, 12, 56–62. [34] Google Scholar

Barron, F. J. (1953). An ego-strength scale which predicts response to psychotherapy. Journal Of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 17, 327–333. [40] Google ScholarPubMed

Barsalou, L. W. (1985). Ideals, central tendency, and frequency of instantiation as determinants of graded structure in categories. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 11, 629–654. [20] Google ScholarPubMed

Barsalou, L. W. (1987). The instability of graded structure: Implications for the nature of concepts. In Concepts reconsidered: The ecological and intellectual bases of categories, U. Neisser (Ed.). New York: Cambridge University Press. [20] Google Scholar

Barth, M. E., Elliot, J. A., & Finn, M. W. (1999). Market rewards associated with patterns of increasing earnings. Journal of Accounting Research, 37, 387–413. [38] Google Scholar

Bartlett, F. C. (1932). Remembering. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [41] Google Scholar

Basil, R. (1989). Graphology and personality, “Let the buyer beware.” Skeptical Inquirer, 13, 241–243. [34] Google Scholar

Bastardi, A., Ross, L., & Lepper, M. R. (1996). False polarization and the gender gap: Actual vs. assumed discrepancies in belief. Unpublished manuscript, Stanford University. [36] Google Scholar

Baumeister, R., Bratslavsky E., Finkenauer, C, & Vohs, K. D. (in press). Bad is stronger than good. (Review of General Psychology.) [11] Google Scholar

Baumeister, R. F, & Leary, M. F. (1995). The need to belong: Desire for interpersonal attachments as a fundamental human motive. Psychological Bulletin, 117, 497–529. [32] Google Scholar

Baumeister, R. F., & Steinhilbm, A. (1984). Paradoxical effects of supportive audiences on performance under pressure: The home field disadvantage in sports championships. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 47, 85–93. [35] Google Scholar

Baumhart, R. (1968). An honest profit. New York: Prentice-Hall. [18] Google Scholar

Bazerman, M. H., & Neale, M. A. (1982). Improving negotiation effectiveness under final offer arbitration: The role ofselection and training. Journal of Applied Psychology, 67, 543–548. [39] Google Scholar

Bazerman, M. H., & Neale, M. A. (1992). Negotiating rationally. New York: John Wiley & Sons. [41] Google Scholar

Beach, L. R. (1990). Image theory: Decision making in personal and organizational contexts. Chichester, England: John Wiley & Sons. Ltd. [30] Google Scholar

Beach, L. R., & Mitchell, T. R. (1987). Image theory: Principles, goals and plans in decision making. Acta Psychologica, 66, 201–220. [30] Google Scholar

Beattie, J., & Baron, J. (1988). Confirmation and matching biases in hypothesis testing. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 40A, 269–297. [6] Google Scholar

Bechera, A., Damasio, H., Tramel, D., & Damasio, A. R. (1997). Deciding advantageously before knowing the advantageous strategy. Science, 275, 1293–1295. [29] Google Scholar

Beck, A. T., Ward, C. H., Mendelson, M., Mock, J. E., & Erbaum, J. K. (1961). An inventory for measuring depression. Archives of General Psychology, 4, 561–571. [14] Google ScholarPubMed

Becker, G. (1996). The economic way of looking at behavior: The Nobel lecture. Stanford, CA: Stanford University, Hoover Institution on War, Revolution, and PeaceGoogle Scholar

Begg, I., Anas, A., & Farinacci, S. (1992). Dissociation of processes in belief: Source recollection, statement familiarity, and the illusion of truth. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 121(4), 446–458. [2] Google Scholar

Begg, I., & Armour, V. (1991). Repetition and the ring of truth: Biasing comments. Canadian Journal of Behavioural Science, 23, 195–213. [2] Google Scholar

Bell, D. E. (1982). Regret in decision making under uncertainty. Operations Research, 30, 961–981. [21] Google Scholar

Bell, D. E. (1983). Risk premiums for decision regret. Management Science, 29, 1156–1166. [21] Google Scholar

Bell, D. E. (1985). Disappointment in decision making under uncertainty. Operations Research, 33, 1–27. [21] Google Scholar

Bellhouse, D. R., & Franklin, J. (1997). The language of chance. International Statistical Review, 65 (1), 73–85. [39] Google Scholar

Bem, D. J. (1967). Self-perception: An alternative interpretation of cognitive dissonance phenomena. Psychological Review, 74, 183–200. [9] Google ScholarPubMed

Bem, D. J. (1972). Self-perception theory. In Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 6, pp. 1–62), L. Berkowitz (Ed.). New York: Academic Press. [Introduction, 9, 10, 36] Google Scholar

Benartzi, S., & Thaler, R. H. (2001). Naive diversification strategies in defined contribution saving plans. American Economic Review, 91 (1), 79–98. [30] Google Scholar

Benthin, A., Slovic, P., Moran, P., Severson, H., Mertz, C. K., & Gerrard, M. (1995). Adolescent health-threatening and health-enhancing behaviors: A study of word association and imagery. Journal of Adolescent Health, 17, 143–152. [23] Google ScholarPubMed

Berkeley, D., & Humphreys, P. (1982). Structuring decision problems and the “bias heuristic.” Acta Psychologica, 50, 201–252. [24] Google Scholar

Beyth-Marom, R. (1981). The subjective probability of conjunctions (Decision Research Report No. 81–12). Eugene, OR: Decision Research. [1] Google Scholar

Beyth-Marom, R. (1982). How probable is probable? Numerical translation of verbal probability expressions. Journal of Forecasting, 1, 257–269. [41] Google Scholar

Beyth-Marom, R., Dekel, S. K., Gombo, R., & Shaked, M. (1985). An elementary approach to thinking under uncertainty. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum [41] Google Scholar

Beyth-Marom, R., Fischhoff, B., Quadrel, M. J., & Furby L. (1991). Teaching adolescents decision making. In Teaching decision making to adolescents (pp. 19–60), J. Baron & R. Brown (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum. [41] Google Scholar

Bierce, A. (1914). The devil's dictionary. New York: World Publishing Company. [14] Google Scholar

Biller, B., Bless, H., & Schwarz, N. (1992, April). Die Leichtigkeit der Erinnerung als Information in der Urteilsbildung: der EinfluBder Fragenreihenfolge (Ease of recall as information: The impact of question order). Tagung experimentell arbeitender Psychologen, Osnabrück, FRG. [5] Google Scholar

Birge, R. T. (1929). Probable Values of the General Physical Constants. Reviews of Modern Physics, 1, 1–73. [37] Google Scholar

Birge, R. T. (1932). The Calculation of Errors by the Method of Least Squares. Physical Review, 40, 207–227. [37] Google Scholar

Birge, R. T. (1941). The General Physical Constants: As of August 1941 with Details on the Velocity of Light Only. Reports on Progress in Physics, 8, 90–134. [37] Google Scholar

Birnbaum, M. H. (1983). Base rates in Bayesian inference: Signal detection analysis of the cab problem. American Journal of Psychology, 96, 85–94. [24] Google Scholar

Birnbaum, M. H. (1999). How to show that 9 221: Collect judgments in a between-subjects design. Psychological Methods, 4 (3), 243–249. [2] Google Scholar

Birnbaum, M. H., & Mellers, B. A. (1983). Bayesian inference: Combining base rates with opinions of sources who vary in credibility. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 45, 792–804. [2] Google Scholar

Biswas, A., & Burton, S. (1993). Consumer perceptions of tensile price claims in advertisements: An assessment of claim types across different discount levels. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 21, 217–229. [6] Google Scholar

Bjorkman, M. (1994). Internal cue theory: Calibration and resolution of confidence in general knowledge. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 58, 386–405. [39] Google Scholar

Bjorkman, M., Juslin, P., & Winman, A. (1993). Realism of confidence in sensory discrimination: The underconfidence phenomenon. Perception and Psychophysics, 54, 75–81. [39] Google ScholarPubMed

Blalock, S. J., DeVellis, B. M., & Afifi, R. A. (1990). Risk perceptions and participation in colorectal cancer screening. Health Psychology, 9, 792–806. [17] Google ScholarPubMed

Blaney, P. H. (1986). Affect and memory: A review. Psychological Bulletin, 99, 229–246. [29] Google ScholarPubMed

Bless, H. (1997). Stimmung und Denken. (Mood and reasoning.) Bern, Switzerland: Huber. [29] Google Scholar

Bless, H. (2001). The consequences of mood on the processing of social information. In Blackwell handbook of social psychology: Intraindividual processes (pp. 391–421), A. Tesser & N. Schwarz (Eds.). Oxford, U.K.: Blackwell. [29] Google Scholar

Bless, H., Bohner, G., Schwarz, N., & Strack, F. (1990). Mood and persuasion: A cognitive response analysis. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 16, 331–345. [29] Google Scholar

Bless, H., Clore, G. L., Schwarz, N., Golisano, V, Rabe, C, & Wolk, M. (1996). Mood and the use of scripts: Does a happy mood really lead to mindlessness? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 71, 665–679. [2, 29] Google ScholarPubMed

Bless, H., & Schwarz, N. (1999). Sufficient and necessary conditions in dual process models: The case of mood and information processing. In Dual process theories in social psychology (pp. 423–440), S. Chaiken & Y. Trope (Eds.). New York: Guilford. [29] Google Scholar

Bless, H., Schwarz, N., & Kemmelmeier, M. (1996). Mood and stereotyping: The impact of moods on the use of general knowledge structures. In M. Hewstone & W. Stroebe (Eds.). European Review of Social Psychology, 7, 63–93. [29] Google Scholar

Bless, H., Schwarz, N., & Wieland, R. (1996). Mood and stereotyping: The impact of category membership and individuating information. European Journal of Social Psychology, 26, 935–959. [29] Google Scholar

Block, R. A., & Harper, D. R. (1991). Overconfidence in estimation: Testing the anchoring-and-adjustment hypothesis. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 49, 188–207. [6] Google Scholar

Bobbio, M., Deorsola, A., Pistis, G., Brusca, A., & Diamond, G. A. (1988). Physician perception of exercise electrocardiography as a prognostic test after acute myocardial infarction. American Journal of Cardiology, 62, 675–678. [39] Google ScholarPubMed

Bobbio, M., Detrano, R., Shandling, A. H., Ellestad, M. H., Clark, J., Brezden, O., Abecia, A., & Martinezcaro, D. (1992). Clinical assessment of the probability of coronary-artery disease - Judgmental bias from personal knowledge. Medical Decision Making, 12, 197–203. [39] Google ScholarPubMed

Bodenhausen, G. V. (1990). Stereotypes as judgmental heuristics: Evidence of circadian variations in discrimination. Psychological Science, 1 (5), 319–322. [Introduction, 2] Google Scholar

Bodenhausen, G. V., Gabriel, S., & Lineberger, M. (1999). Sadness and susceptibility to judgmental bias: The case of anchoring. Unpublished manuscript, Northwestern University. [29] Google Scholar

Bodenhausen, G. V., Kramer, G. P, & Süsser, K. (1994). Happiness and stereotypic thinking in social judgment. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 66, 621–632. [29] Google Scholar

Bodenhausen, G. V., & Wyer, R. S. (1987). Social cognition and social reality: Information acquisition and use in the laboratory and the real world. In Social information processing and survey methodology (pp. 6–41), H. J. Hippler, N. Schwarz, & S. Sudman (Eds.). New York: Springer Verlag. [5] Google Scholar

Bollnow, O. F. (1956). Das Wesen der Stimmungen. (The nature of moods.) Frankfurt: Klostermann. [29] Google Scholar

Bond, M. H., & Cheung, T. S. (1983). The spontaneous self-concept of college students in Hong Kong, Japan, and the United States. Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology, 14, 153–171. [15] Google Scholar

Boneau, C. A. (1990). Short-term recognition memory under rehearsal instructions and imaging instructions. Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society, 28, 297–299. [17] Google Scholar

Borg, I. (1987). The effect of mood on different well-being judgments. Archiv fur Psychologie, 139, 181–188. [29] Google ScholarPubMed

Borgida, E., & Nisbett, R. E. (1977). The differential impact of abstract vs. concrete information on decisions. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 7, 258–271. [28] Google Scholar

Bornstein, R. F. (1989). Exposure and affect: Overview and meta-analysis of research, 1968–1987. Psychological Bulletin, 106, 265–289. [23] Google Scholar

Bostrom, A., Fischhoff, B., & Morgan, G. M. (1992). Characterizing mental models of hazardous processes: A methodology with an application to radon. Journal of Social Issues, 48, 85–100 [41] Google Scholar

Bower, G. H. (1981). Mood and memory. American Psychologist, 36, 129–148. [29] Google Scholar

Bower, G. H., & Mayer, J. D. (1985). Failure to replicate mood congruent retrieval. Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society, 23, 39–42. [29] Google Scholar

Brainard, R. W., Irby, T. S., Fitts, P. M., & Alluisi, E. (1962). Some variables influencing the rate of gain of information. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 63, 105–110. [12] Google Scholar

Braine, M. D. S. (1990). The “natural logic” approach to reasoning. In Reasoning, necessity, and logic: Developmental Perspectives (pp. 133–157), W. F. Overton (Ed.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [22] Google Scholar

Brake, G. L., Doherty, M. E., & Kleiter, G. D. (1997). A Brunswikian approach to calibration of subjective probabilities. Unpublished manuscript, Bowling Green State University. [39] Google Scholar

Brase, G. L., Cosmides, L., & Tooby, J. (1998). Individuation, counting, and statistical inference: The role of frequency and whole-object representations in judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 127, 3–21. [24] Google Scholar

Braun, P. A., & Yaniv, I. (1992). A case study of expert judgment: Economists probabilities versus base-rate model forecasts. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 5, 217–231. [39] Google Scholar

Brehm, J. W. (1966). A theory of psychological reactance. New York: Academic Press. [36] Google Scholar

Brehm, J. W., & Cohen, A. R. (1962). Explorations in cognitive dissonance. New York: Wiley. [36] Google Scholar

Brehm, S. S., & Brehm, J. W. (1981). Psychological reactance: Atheory of freedom and control. New York: Academic Press. [36] Google Scholar

Breiman, L., Friedman, J. H., Olshen, R. A., & Stone, C. J. (1984). Classification and regression trees. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth International Group. [31] Google Scholar

Brenner, L. (2000). Should observed overconfidence be dismissed as a statistical artifact? Critique of Erev, Wallsten, and Budescu (1994). Psychological Review, 107, 943–946. [27, 39] Google Scholar

Brenner, L. A. (1995). A stochastic model of the calibration of subjective probabilities. Unpublished Doctoral dissertation, Stanford University. [27, 39] Google Scholar

Brenner, L., & Koehler, D. J. (1999). Subjective probability of disjunctive hypotheses: Local-weight models for decomposition of evidential support. Cognitive Psychology, 38, 16–47. [27] Google Scholar

Brenner, L. A., Koehler, D. J., Liberman, V., & Tversky, A. (1996). Overconfidence in probability and frequency judgments: A critical examination. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, 212–219. [Introduction, 39] Google Scholar

Brenner, L., & Rottenstreich, Y. (1999). Focus, repacking, and the judgment of grouped hypotheses. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12, 141–148. [27] Google Scholar

Brenner, L., & Rottenstreich, Y. (2000). Asymmetric support theory: Focus-dependence and context independence in likelihood judgment. Unpublished manuscript. [27] Google Scholar

Brewer, M. B. (1988). A dual process model of impression formation. In Advances in social cognition (Vol. 1, pp. 1–36), T. K. Srull & R. S. Wyer (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [29] Google Scholar

Brickman, P., Coates, D., Janoff-Bulman, R. J. (1978). Lottery winners and accident victims: Is happiness relative? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 36, 917- 927. [16] Google Scholar

Brier, G. W. (1950). Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Monthly Weather Review, 78 (1), 1–3. [15] Google Scholar

Briggs, L. K., & Krantz, D. H. (1992). Judging the strength of designated evidence. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 5, 77–106. [25, 26, 27] Google Scholar

Brockner, J., Rubin, J. Z., & Lang, E. (1981). Face-saving and entrapment. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 17, 68–79. [32] Google Scholar

Brody, N. (1997). Intelligence, schooling, and society. American Psychologist, 52, 1046- 1050. [24] Google Scholar

Brooks, L. R. (1978). Nonanalytic concept formation and memory for instances. In Cognition and categorization (pp. 169–215), E. Rosch & B. B. Lloyd (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [20] Google Scholar

Brooks, L. R. (1987). Decentralized control of categorization: The role of prior processing episodes. In Concepts reconsidered: The ecological and intellectual bases of categories U. Neisser (Ed.). New York: Cambridge University Press. [20] Google Scholar

Brooks, L. R., Norman, G. R., & Allen, S. W. (1991). Role of specific similarity in a medical diagnostic task. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 120, 278–287. [22] Google Scholar

Broome, J. (1990). Should a rational agent maximize expected utility? In The limits of rationality (pp. 132–145), K. S. Cook & M. Levi (Eds.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [24] Google Scholar

Brown & Williamson Tobacco Company (1999). [23] Google Scholar

Brown, P., Foster, G., & Noreen, E. (1985). Security analyst multi-year earnings forecasts and the capital market. Sarasota: American Accounting Association. [38] Google Scholar

Browne, T. (1642/1963). Riligio. Medici. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [16] Google Scholar

Bruner, J. (1986). Actual minds, possible worlds. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. [24] Google Scholar

Bruner, J. (1990). Acts of meaning. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. [24] Google Scholar

Bruner, J. S. (1957). Going beyond the information given. In Contemporary approaches to cognition (pp. 41–69), H. Gruber, K. R. Hammond, & R. Jesser (Eds.). Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. [36] Google Scholar

Bruner, J. S. (1966). On the conservation of liquids. In Studies in cognitive growth, J. S. Bruner, R. R. Olver, & P. M. Greenfield, et al. (Eds.), New York: Wiley. [1] Google Scholar

Brunswik, E. (1943). Organismic achievement and environmental probability. Psychological Review, 50, 255–272. [2, 39] Google Scholar

Brunswik, E. (1955). Representative design and probabilistic theory in a functional psychology. Psychological Review, 2, 193–217. [Introduction, 39] Google Scholar

Brunswik, E. (1964). Scope and aspects of the cognitive problem. In Contemporary approaches to cognition (pp. 5–31), J. S. Bruner et al. (Eds.). Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. [31] Google Scholar

Buckley, T., & Sniezek, J. (1992). Passion, preference, and predictability in judgmental forecasting. Psychological Reports, 70, 1022. [19] Google Scholar

Budescu, D. V., Erev, I., & Wallsten, T. S. (1997). On the importance of random error in the study of probability judgment. Part I: New theoretical developments. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10, 157–171. [39] Google Scholar

Budescu, D. V., Wallsten, T. S., & Au, W. T. (1997). On the importance of random error in the study of probability judgment. Part II: Applying the stochastic judgment model to detect systematic trends. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10, 173–188. [39] Google Scholar

Buehler, R., & Griffin, D. (1996, August). Getting things done: The impact of predictions on task completion. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Psychological Association, Toronto, Canada. [14, 19] Google Scholar

Buehler, R., & Griffin, D. (2000a). Dispositional, contextual, and cognitive underpinnings of the planning fallacy. Unpublished manuscript, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Ontario. [14] Google Scholar

Buehler, R., & Griffin, D. (2000b). Motivated prediction for self and others. Unpublished manuscript, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Ontario. [14] Google Scholar

Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & MacDonald, H. (1997). The role of motivated reasoning in optimistic time predictions. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 23, 238–247. [14, 19] Google Scholar

Buehler, R., Griffin, D., Otsubo, Y., Lehman, D., & Heine, S. (2000). A cross-cultural comparison of the planning fallacy. Unpublished manuscript, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Ontario. [14] Google Scholar

Buehler, R., & McFarland, C. (in press). Intensity bias in affective forecasts: The role of temporal focus. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin. [14] Google Scholar

Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & Ross, M. (1994). Exploring the “planning fallacy”: Why people underestimate their task completion times. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67, 366–381. [14, 19, 36] Google Scholar

Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & Ross, M. (1995). It's about time: Optimistic predictions in work and love. In European Review of Social Psychology (Vol.6, pp. 1–32), W. Stroebe & M. Hewstone (Eds.). Chichester, U.K.: John Wiley & Sons. [14] Google Scholar

Bunker, J. P., Barnes, B. A., & Mosteller, F. (Eds.). (1977). Costs, risks, and benefits of surgery. New York: Oxford University Press. [41] Google Scholar

Bunn, D. W., & Salo, A. A. (1993). Forecasting with scenarios. European Journal of Operational Research, 68, 291–303. [14] Google Scholar

Burgstahler, D., & Dichev, I. (1997). Earnings management to avoid earnings decreases and losses. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 24, 99–126. [38] Google Scholar

Burros, O. K. (1978). Mental measurement yearbook, 8th ed. Highland Park, NJ: Gryphon Press. [34] Google Scholar

Busemeyer, J., Hastie, R., & Medin, D. L. (Eds.) (1995). Decision making from a cognitive perspective, San Diego: Academic Press. [23] Google Scholar

Busemeyer, J. R., & Goldstein, W. M. (1992). Linking together different measures of preference: a dynamic model of matching derived from decision field theory. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 52, 370–396. [6] Google Scholar

Busemeyer, J. R., & Townsend, J. T. (1993). Decisionfield theory: Adynamic - cognitive approachto decision making inan uncertain environment. Psychological Review, 100, 432–459. [6] Google Scholar

Byram, S. J. (1997). Cognitive and motivational factors influencing time prediction. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 3, 216–219. [14] Google Scholar

Byrne, J. A. (1986). Business fads: What's in - and out: Executives latch on to any management idea that looks like a quick fix. Business Week, January 20, 52–61. [41] Google Scholar

Byrnes, J. P., & Overton, W. F. (1986). Reasoning about certainty and uncertainty in concrete, causal, and propositional contexts. Developmental Psychology, 22, 793–799. [24] Google Scholar

Cacciari, C., & Tabossi, P. (Eds.) (1993). Idioms. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [8] Google Scholar

Cacioppo, J. T., Priester, J. R., & Berntson, G. G. (1993). Rudimentary determinants of attitudes. II. Arm flexion and extension have differential effects on attitudes. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65, 5–17. [2, 7, 29] Google Scholar

Cadsby, T. (2000). The ten biggest investment mistakes Canadians make and how to avoid them. Toronto: Stoddart. [39] Google Scholar

Calderon, T. G. (1993). Predictive properties of analysts' forecasts of corporate earnings. The Mid-Atlantic Journal of Business, 29, 41–58. [19] Google Scholar

Camerer, C. (1981). General conditions for the success of bootstrapping models. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 27, 411–422. [41] Google Scholar

Camerer, C. (1990). Do markets correct biases in probability judgment? Evidence from market experiments. In Advances in behavioral economics (Vol. 2, pp. 125–172), L. Green & J. H. Kagel (Eds.). Northwood, NJ: Ablex. [13] Google Scholar

Camerer, C., & Hogarth, R. (1999). The effects of financial incentives in experiments: A review and capital-labor production framework. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 19, 7–42. [Introduction] Google Scholar

Camerer, C., & Lovallo, D. (1999). Overconfidence and excess entry: An experimental approach. The American Economic Review, 89, 306–318. [19] Google Scholar

Campbell, J. D., & Fairey, P. J. (1985). Effects of self-esteem, hypothetical explanations, and verbalization of expectancies on future performance. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 48, 1097–1111. [19] Google Scholar

Campbell, J. I. D. (1987). The role of associative interference in learning and retrieving arithmetic facts. In Cognitive processes in mathematics, J. A. Sloboda & D. Rogers (Eds.). Oxford: Oxford University Press. [22] Google Scholar

Canadian Standards Association. (1997). Risk management (CSA-850). Ottawa. [41] Google Scholar

Capute, A. J., Neidermeyer, E. F. L., & Richardson, F. (1968). Electroencephalogram in children with minimal cerebral dysfunction. Pediatrics, 41, 1104–1114. [40] Google Scholar

Carey, S. (1985). Conceptual change in childhood. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [22] Google Scholar

Carleton, W. T., Chen, C. R., & Steiner, T. L. (1998). Optimism biases among brokerage and nonbrokerage equity recommendations: Agency costs in the investment industry. Financial Management, 27, 17–30. [38] Google Scholar

Carlson, B. W. (1990). Anchoring and adjustment in judgments under risk. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 16, 665–676. [6, 7] Google Scholar

Carlson, S. (1985). A double-blind test of astrology. Nature, 318, 419–425. [34] Google Scholar

Carpenter, P. A., & Just, M. A. (1975). Sentence comprehension: A psycholoinguistic processing model of verification. Psychological Review, 82, 45–73. [9] Google Scholar

Carroll, J. B. (1993). Human cognitive abilities: A survey of factor-analytic studies. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [24] Google Scholar

Carroll, J. B. (1997). Psychometrics, intelligence, and public perception. Intelligence, 24, 25–52. [24] Google Scholar

Carroll, J. S. (1978). The effect of imagining an event on expectations for the event: An interpretation in terms of the availability heuristic. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 14, 88–96. [4, 17, 21] Google Scholar

Carroll, J. S., Wiener, R. L., Coates, D., Galegher, J., & Alibrio, J. J. (1982). Evaluation, diagnosis, and prediction in parole decision making. Law and Society Review, 17, 199–228. [40] Google Scholar

Carson, T. P., & Adams, H. E. (1980). Acticity valence as a function of mood change. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 89, 368–377. [29] Google Scholar

Carver, C. S., & Scheier, M. F. (1981). Attention and self-regulation: A control-theory approach to human behavior. New York: Springer Verlag. [19] Google Scholar

Carver, C. S., & Scheier, M. F. (1998). On the self-regulation of behavior. New York: Cambridge University Press. [19] Google Scholar

Casman, E., Fischhoff, B., Palmgren, C., Small, M., & Wu, F. (2000). Integrated assessment of Cryptosporidium risks. Risk Analysis, 20, 493–509. [41] Google Scholar

Casscells, W., Schoenberger, A., & Graboys, T. (1978). Interpretation by physicians of clinical laboratory results. New England Journal of Medicine, 299, 999–1001. [24] Google Scholar

Caverni, J.-P., & Pris, J. L. (1990). The anchoring-adjustment heuristic in an “information rich, real world setting”: Knowledge assessment by experts. In Cognitive biases, J.-P. Caverni, J.-M. Fabre, & M. Gonzalez (Eds.). New York: North-Holland. [6] Google Scholar

Centor, R. M., Dalton, H. P., & Yates, J. F. (1984). Are physicians' probability estimates better or worse than regression model estimates? Paper presented at the Sixth Annual Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making, Bethesda, MD. [39] Google Scholar

Cervone, D., & Peake, P. K. (1986). Anchoring, efficacy, and action: the influence of judgmental heuristics on self-efficacy judgments and behavior. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 50, 492–501. [6, 7] Google Scholar

Chafe, W. L. (1976). Givenness, contrastiveness, definiteness, subjects, topics, andpoint of view. In Subject and topic, C. N. Li (Ed.). New York: Academic Press. [8] Google Scholar

Chaiken, S. (1980). Heuristic versus systematic information processing and the use of source versus message cuesinpersuasion. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39, 752–766. [32] Google Scholar

Chaiken, S. (1987). The heuristic model of persuasion. In Social influence: the Ontario symposium (Vol. 5, pp. 3–39), M. P. Zanna, J. M. Olson, & C. P. Herman (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [9] Google Scholar

Chaiken, S., Liberman, A., & Eagly, A. H. (1989). Heuristic and systematic processing within and beyond the persuasion context. In Unintended thought (pp. 212–252), J. S. Uleman & J. A. Bargh (Eds.). New York: Guilford Press. [Introduction, 22] Google Scholar

Chaiken, S., & Trope, Y. (1999). Dual-process theories in social psychology. New York: Guilford Press. [2, 5, 22, 23] Google Scholar

Chapman, G. B., & Bornstein, B. H. (1996). The more you ask for the more you get: Anchoring in personal injury verdicts. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 10, 519–540. [6] Google Scholar

Chapman, G. B., & Johnson, E. J. (1994). The limits of anchoring. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 7, 223–242. [6, 7] Google Scholar

Chapman, G. B., & Johnson, E. J. (1999). Anchoring, activation and the construction of value. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 79, 115–153. [6] Google Scholar

Chapman, L. J., & Chapman, J. P. (1967). Genesis of popular but erroneous psychodi-agnostic observations. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 72, 193–204. [1, 40] Google Scholar

Chapman, L. J., & Chapman, J. P. (1969). Illusory correlation as an obstacle to the use of valid psychodiagnostic signs. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 74, 271–280. [40] Google Scholar

Chase, W. G., & Simon, H. A. (1973). Perceptioninchess. Cognitive Psychology, 4, 55–81. [39] Google Scholar

Cheng, P. W., & Holyoak, K. J. (1985). Pragmatic reasoning schemas. Cognitive Psychology, 17, 391–416. [22] Google Scholar

Cheng, P. W., & Holyoak, K. J. (1989). On the natural selection of reasoning theories. Cognition, 33, 285–313. [24] Google Scholar

Cherniak, C. (1986). Minimal rationality. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [24] Google Scholar

Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J., & Beach, L. R. (1982). Experience and the base-rate fallacy. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 29, 270–278. [39] Google Scholar

Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J., & Bushyhead, J. B. (1981). Physicians' use of probabilistic information in a real clinical setting. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 7, 928–935. [39] Google Scholar

Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J., & Willham, C. F. (1991). The hindsight bias: A metaanal-ysis. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 48, 147–173. [41] Google Scholar

Chwe, M. (1998). Culture, circles, and commercials: Publicity, common knowledge, and social coordination. Rationality & Society, 10, 47–75. [8] Google Scholar

Cialdini, R. B., Levy, A., Herman, C. P., Kozlowski, I. T., & Petty, R. E. (1976). Elastic shifts of opinion: Determinants of direction and durability. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 34, 663–672. [32] Google Scholar

Clark, D. M., & Teasdale, J. D. (1982). Diurnal variation in clinical depression and accessibility of memories of positive and negative experiences. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 91, 87–95. [29] Google Scholar

Clark, H. H. (1979). Responding to indirect speech acts. Cognitive Psychology, 11, 430- 474. [20] Google Scholar

Clark, H. H. (1996). Using language. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [8] Google Scholar

Clark, H. H., & Carlson, T. B. (1981). Context for comprehension. In Attention and Performance IX (pp. 313–330), J. Long & A. Baddeley (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [8] Google Scholar

Clark, H. H., & Chase, W. G. (1972). On the process of comparing sentences against pictures. Cognitive Psychology, 3, 472–517. [9] Google Scholar

Clark, H. H., & Chase, W. G. (1974). Perceptual coding strategies in the formation and verification of descriptions. Memory and Cognition, 2, 101–111. [9] Google Scholar

Clark, H. H., & Haviland, S. E. (1977). Comprehension and the given new contract. In Discourse production and comprehension (pp. 1–40), R. O. Freedle (Ed.). Norwood, NJ: Ablex. [20] Google Scholar

Clark, H. H., & Marshall, C. R. (1981). Definite reference and mutual knowledge. In Elements of discourse understanding (pp. 10–63), A. H. Joshe, B. Webber, & I. A. Sag (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [8] Google Scholar

Clayman, M. R., & Schwartz, R. A. (1994). Falling in love again: Analysts' estimates and reality. Financial Analysts Journal, 50, 66–68. [38] Google Scholar

Clemen, R. (1991). Making hard decisions. Boston: PWS-Kent. [41] Google Scholar

Clore, G. L. (1992). Cognitive phenomenology: Feelings and the construction of judgment. In The construction of social judgments (pp. 133–163), L. L. Martin & A. Tesser (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [5] Google Scholar

Clore, G. L., & Byrne, D. (1974). A reinforcement affect model of attraction. In Foundations of interpersonal attraction (pp. 173–170), T. L. Huston (Ed.). New York: Academic Press. [29] Google Scholar

Clore, G. L., Schwarz, N., & Conway, M. (1994). Affective causes and consequences of social information processing. In Handbook of social cognition (2nd ed.; Vol. 1, pp. 323–418), R. S. Wyer & T. K. Srull (Eds.). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. [29] Google Scholar

Cohen, B., & Lee, I. S. (1979). A catalog of risks. Health Physics, 36, 707–722. [41] Google Scholar

Cohen, E. R., Crowe, K. M., & Dumond, J. W. M. (1957). Fundamental constants of Physics. New York: Interscience. [37] Google Scholar

Cohen, E. R., & Dumond, J. W. M. (1965). Our knowledge of the fundamental constants of physics and chemistry in 1965. Review of Modern Physics, 37, 537–594. [37] Google Scholar

Cohen, E. R., Dumond, J. W. M., Layton, T. W., & Rollett, J. S. (1955). Analysis of variance of the 1952 data on the atomic constants and a new adjustment, 1955. Review of Modern Physics, 27, 363–380. [37] Google Scholar

Cohen, E. R., & Taylor, B. N. (1973). The 1973 Least-Squares adjustment of the fundamental constants. Journal of Physical and Chemical Reference Data, 2 (4), 663–734. [37] Google Scholar

Cohen, J. (1969). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences. San Diego: Academic Press. [2] Google Scholar

Cohen, J. (1992). A power primer. Psychological Bulletin, 112 (1), 155–159. [2] Google Scholar

Cohen, J., & Hansel, C. M. (1957). The nature of decision in gambling: Equivalence of single and compound subjective probabilities. Acta Psychologica, 13, 357–370. [1] Google Scholar

Cohen, L. J. (1977). The probable and the provable. Oxford, U.K.: Clarendon Press. [1] Google Scholar

Cohen, L. J. (1979). On the psychology of prediction: Whose is the fallacy? Cognition, 7, 385–407. [24, 28] Google Scholar

Cohen, L. J. (1981). Can human irrationality be experimentally demonstrated? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 4, 317–370. [Introduction, 24, 28] Google Scholar

Cohen, L. J. (1982). Are people programmed to commit fallacies? Further thoughts about the interpretation of experimental data on probability judgment. Journal for the Theory of Social Behavior, 12, 251–274. [24] Google Scholar

Cohen, L. J. (1983). The controversy about irrationality. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 6, 510–517. [24] Google Scholar

Cohen, L. J. (1986). The dialogue of reason. Oxford, U.K.: Oxford University Press. [24] Google Scholar

Coleman, J. S. (1990). Foundations of Social Theory. Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press. College Board (1976–1977). Student descriptive questionnaire. Princeton, NJ: Educational Testing Service. [18] Google Scholar

Collins, R. L., Taylor, S. E., & Skokan, L. A. (1990). A better world or a shattered vision? Changes in life perspectives following victimization. Social Cognition, 8, 263–285. [16] Google Scholar

Combs, B., & Slovic, P. (1979). Newspaper coverage of causes of death. Journalism Quarterly, 56, 832–849. [41] Google Scholar

Conway, M., & Ross, M. (1984). Getting what you want by revising what you had. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 47, 738–748. [19] Google Scholar

Cooke, R. M. (1991). Experts in Uncertainty. New York: Oxford University Press. Cooley, C. H. (1902). Human nature and the social order. New York: Scribner's. [36] Google Scholar

Cooper, A., Woo, C., & Dunkelberg, W. (1988). Entrepreneurs' perceived chances for success. Journal of Business Venturing, 3, 97–108. [13, 39] Google Scholar

Cooper, A. C., & Artz, K. W. (1995). Determinants of satisfaction for entrepreneurs. Journal of Business Venturing, 10, 439–457. [19] Google Scholar

Cooper, R., DeJong, D., Forsythe, B., & Ross, T. (1992). Forward induction in coordination games. Economics Letters, 40, 167–172. [8] Google Scholar

Cooper, R., DeJong, D., Forsythe, B., & Ross, T. (1994). Alternative institutions for resolving coordination problems: Experimental evidence on forward induction and preplay communication. In Problems of coordination in economic activity (pp. 129–146), J. Friedman (Ed.). Norwell, MA: Kluwer. [8] Google Scholar

Corneille, O., Leyens, J., Yzerbyt, V. T., & Walter, E. (1999). Judgeability concerns: The interplay of information, applicability, and accountability in the overattribution bias. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 76, 377–387. [32] Google Scholar

Cosmides, L. (1989). The logic of social exchange: Has natural selection shaped how humans reason? Studies with the Wason selection task. Cognition, 31, 187–276. [24] Google Scholar

Cosmides, L., & Tooby, J. (1994). Beyond intuition and instinct blindness: Toward an evolutionarily rigorous cognitive science. Cognition, 50, 41–77. [24] Google Scholar

Cosmides, L., & Tooby, J. (1996). Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment and uncertainty. Cognition, 58 (1), 1–73. [Introduction, 2, 14, 24] Google Scholar

Cowley, G., King, P., Hager, M., & Rosenberg, D. (1995, June 26). Going mainstream. Newsweek, 56–57. [34] Google Scholar

Crocker, J. (1982). Biased questions in judgment of covariation studies. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 8, 214–220. [7] Google Scholar

Crosby, F. (1976). A model of egoistical relative deprivation. Psychological Review, 83, 85–113. [35] Google Scholar

Crosby, F. J., & Cordova, D. I. (1996). Words of wisdom: Toward an understanding of affirmative action. Journal of Social Issues, 52, 33–49. [10] Google Scholar

Cross, H., Holcomb, A., & Matter, C. G. (1967). Imprinting or exposure learning in rats given early auditory stimulation. Psychonomic Science, 7, 233–234. [30] Google Scholar

Cross, P. (1977). Not can but will college teaching be improved. New Directions for Higher Education, 17, 1–15. [18] Google Scholar

Cummings, K. M., Becker, M. H., & Maile, M. C. (1980). Bringing the models together: An empirical approach to combining variables used to explain health actions. Journal of Behavioral Medicine, 3,123–145. [17] Google Scholar

Cummins, D. D. (1996). Evidence for the innateness of deontic reasoning. Mind & Language, 11, 160–190. [24] Google Scholar

Curley S. P., Yates, J. F., & Abrams, R. A. (1986). Psychological sources of ambiguity avoidance. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 38, 230–256Google Scholar

Cvetkovich, G. (1978). Cognitive accommodation, language, and social responsibility. Social Psychology, 2, 149–155. [32] Google Scholar

Czaczkes, B., & Ganzach, Y. (1996). The natural selection of prediction heuristics: anchoring and adjustment. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 9, 125–139. [6] Google Scholar

Czerlinski, J. (1997). Algorithm calculation costs measured by EIPs. Manuscript, Max Planck Institute for Psychological Research, Munich. [31] Google Scholar

Damasio, A. R. (1994). Descarte's error: Emotion, reason and the human brain. New York: Grosset/Putnam [23, 29] Google Scholar

Damasio, A. R., Tranel, D., & Damasio, H. C. (1990). Individuals with sociopathic behavior caused by frontal damage fail to respond autonomically to social stimuli. Behavioural Brain Research, 41, 81–94. [23] Google Scholar

David, F. N. (1949). Probability theory for statistical methods. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [33] Google Scholar

Davidson, W. P. (1983). The third person effect in communication. Public Opinion Quarterly, 47, 1–15. [36] Google Scholar

Davies, T. (Ed.), (1996). Comparing environmental risks. Washington, DC: Resources for the Future. [41] Google Scholar

Davis, H. L., Hoch, S. J., & Ragsdale, E. E. (1986). An anchoring and adjustment model of spousal predictions. Journal of Consumer Research, 13, 25–37. [6] Google Scholar

Davis, J. A. (1966). The campus as a frog pond: An application of the theory of relative deprivation to career decisions of college men. American Journal of Sociology, 72, 17–31. [20] Google Scholar

Dawes, R. (1998). Judgment and choice. In Handbook of social psychology, D. Gilbert, S. Fiske, & G. Lindzey (Eds.) (pp. 497–548). New York: McGraw Hill. [42] Google Scholar

Dawes, R. M. (1971). A case study of graduate admissions: Application of three principles of human decision making. American Psychologist, 26, 180–188. [40] Google Scholar

Dawes, R. M. (1979). The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making. American Psychologist, 34, 571–582. [13,31,40] Google Scholar

Dawes, R. M. (1980). You can't systemize human judgment: Dyslexia. New Directions for Methodology of Social and Behavioral Science, 4, 67–78. [28] Google Scholar

Dawes, R. M. (1988). Rational choice in an uncertain world, New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich. [Introduction, 13,14] Google Scholar

Dawes, R. M. (1989). Statistical criteria for establishing a truly false consensus effect. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 25, 1–17. [24] Google Scholar

Dawes, R. M. (1990). The potential nonfalsity of the false consensus effect. In Insights into decision making (pp. 179–199), R. M. Hogarth (Ed.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [24] Google Scholar

Dawes, R. M. (1993). Equating the inverse probabilities in implicit personality judgments. Psychological Science, 6, 396–400. [41] Google Scholar

Dawes, R. M. (1994). House of cards: Psychology and psychotherapy built on myth. New York: Free Press. [34] Google Scholar

Dawes, R. M., & Corrigan, B. (1974). Linear models in decision making. Psychological Bulletin, 81, 95–106. [31,40,41] Google Scholar

Dawes, R. M., Faust, D., & Meehl, P. E. (1989). Clinical versus actuarial judgment. Science, 243, 1668–1674. [13] Google Scholar

Dawson, S. (1993). Decision-making and leadership: Heller, F Journal of Management Studies, 30 (3), 479–481. [39] Google Scholar

De Bondt, W. F M., & Thaler, R. H. (1985). Does the stock market overreact? Journal of Finance, 40, 793–805. [38] Google Scholar

De Bondt, W. F M., & Thaler, R. H. (1987). Further evidence on investor overreaction and stock market seasonality. Journal of Finance, 42, 557–581. [38] Google Scholar

de Finetti, B. (1970). Theory of probability (Vol. 1). New York: John Wiley and Sons (republished 1990). [Introduction, 24] Google Scholar

Dean, G. (1987). Does astrology need to be true? Part II: The answer is no. Skeptical Inquirer, Spring, 257–273. [34] Google Scholar

Degeorge, F., Patel, J., & Zeckhauser, R. (1999). Earnings management to exceed thresholds. Journal of Business, 72, 1–33. [38] Google Scholar

DeKay M. L., & McClelland, G. H. (1995). Probability and utility components of endangered species preservation programs. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 2, 60–83. [2] Google Scholar

Dellarosa, D., & Bourne, L. E. (1984). Decisions and memory: Differential retrievabil-ity of consistent and contradictory evidence. Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, 23, 669–682. [6] Google Scholar

DeMarco, T. (1982). Controlling software projects: Management, measurement, and estimation. New York: Yourdon. [14] Google Scholar

Dempster, A. P. (1967). Upper and lower probabilities induced by a multivalued mapping. Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 38, 325–339. [1, 25] Google Scholar

Denes-Raj, V., & Epstein, S. (1994). Conflict between intuitive and rational processing: When people behave against their better judgment. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 66, 819–829. [23] Google Scholar

Dennett, D. C. (1981). Brainstorms: Philosophical essays on mind and psychology. Cambridge, MA: Bradford/MIT Press. [16, 28] Google Scholar

Dennett, D. C. (1981). Three kinds of intentional psychology. In Reduction, time and reality, R. Healey (Ed.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [28] Google Scholar

Dennett, D. C. (1983). True believers: The intentional strategy and why it works. Unpublished manuscript, Tufts University. [28] Google Scholar

DePaulo, B. M., Stone, J. L., & Lassiter, G. D. (1985). Deceiving and detecting deceit. In The self in social life (pp. 323–370), B. R. Schlenker (Ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill. [9] Google Scholar

Descartes, R. (1984). Principles of philosophy. In The philosophical writings of Descartes (Vol. 1, pp. 193–291), J. Cottingham, R. Stoothoff, & D. Murdoch, (Eds. and Trans.)Google Scholar

Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. (Original work published 1644.) [9] Google Scholar

DeSmet A. A., Fryback D. G., & Thornbury J. R. (1979). A second look at the utility of radiographic skull examination for trauma. American Journal of Roentgenology, 132 (1), 95–99. [39] Google Scholar

Desvouges, W. H., Johnson, F., Dunford, R., Hudson, S., Wilson, K., & Boyle, K. (1993). Measuring resource damages with contingent valuation: Tests of validity and reliability. In Contingent valuation: A critical assessment. Amsterdam: North Holland. [2] Google Scholar

Deutsch, R. M. (1977). The new nuts among the berries: How nutrition nonsense captured America. Palo Alto, CA: Ball Publishing. [34] Google Scholar

Diamond, (1996). Testing the internal consistency of contingent valuation surveys. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 28, 155–173. [2] Google Scholar

Diener, E. (1984). Subjective well-being. Psychological Bulletin, 95, 542–575. [16] Google Scholar

Diener, E. (1994). Assessing subjective well-being: Progress and opportunities. Social Indicators Research, 31, 103–157. [16] Google Scholar

Diener, E., Emmons, R. A., Larsen, R. J., & Griffin, S. (1985). The Satisfaction With Life Scale. Journal of Personality Assessment, 49, 71–75. [16] Google Scholar

DiFranza, J. R., Rigotti, N. A., McNeill, A. D., Ockene, J. K., Savageau, J. A., St Cyr, D., & Coleman, M. (2000). Initial symptoms of nicotine dependence in adolescents. Tobacco Control, 9, 313–319. [23] Google Scholar

DiMatteo, M. R., & DiNicola, D. D. (1982). Achieving patient compliance. New York: Pergamon Press. [4] Google Scholar

Doleys, E. J., & Renzaglia, G. A. (1963). Accuracy of student prediction of college grades. Personnel and Guidance Journal, 41, 528–530. [19] Google Scholar

Dominowski, R. L. (1995). Content effects in Wason's selection task. In Perspectives on thinking and reasoning (pp. 41–65), S. E. Newstead & J. S. B. T. Evans (Eds.). Hove, England: Erlbaum. [24] Google Scholar

Donaldson, M. (1978). Children's minds. London: Fontana Paperbacks. [24] Google Scholar

Donaldson, M. (1993). Human minds: An exploration. New York: Viking Penguin. [24] Google Scholar

Dovidio, J. F., Kawakami, K., Johnson, C., & Johnson, B. (1997). On the nature of prejudice: automatic and controlled processes. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 33, 510–540. [10] Google Scholar

Dowen, R. J. (1996). Analyst reaction to negative earnings for large well-known firms. Journal of Portfolio Management, 23, 49–55. [38] Google Scholar

Dowie, J. (1983). Risk. Buckinghamshire, England: Open University. [41] Google Scholar

Downs, J. S., & Shafir, E. (1999). Why some are perceived as more confident and more insecure, more reckless and more cautious, more trusting and more suspicious, than others: Enriched and impoverished options in social judgment. Psychonomic Bulletin and Review, 6, 598–610. [27] Google Scholar

Dreman, D. (1979). Contrarian investment strategy. New York: Random House. [41] Google Scholar

Dreman, D. (1999). Contrarian investment strategies: The next generation. New York: Simon & Schuster. [41] Google Scholar

Dreman, D. N., & Berry, M. A. (1995). Analyst forecasting errors and their implications for security analysis. Financial Analysts Journal, 51, 30–41. [38] Google Scholar

Dryfoos, J. G. (1990). Adolescents at risk: Prevalence and prevention. New York: Oxford University Press. [41] Google Scholar

Dube-Rioux, L., & Russo, J. E. (1988). An availability bias in professional judgment. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 1, 223–237. [25] Google Scholar

Dubois, D., & Prade, H. (1988). Modelling uncertainty and inductive inference: A survey of recent non-additive probability systems. Acta Psychologica, 68, 53–78. [25] Google Scholar

Dulany, D. E., & Hilton, D. J. (1991). Conversational implicature, conscious representation, and the conjunction fallacy. Social Cognition, 9, 85–110. [2, 24] Google Scholar

Dumond, J. W. M., & Cohen, E. R. (1951). Least-Squares adjusted values of the atomic constants as of December, 1950. Physical Review, 82, 555–556. [37] Google Scholar

Dumond, J. W. M., & Cohen, E. R. (1952). Least-Squares adjustment of the atomic constants. Reviews of Modern Physics, 25, 691–708. [37] Google Scholar

Dun & Bradstreet. (1967). Patterns of success in managing a business. New York: Dun & Bradstreet. [13] Google Scholar

Dunham H. W., & Meltzer, B. M. (1946). Predicting length of hospitalization of mental patients. American Journal of Sociology, 52, 123–131. [40] Google Scholar

Dunning, D., Griffin, D. W., Milojkovic, J., & Ross, L. (1990). The overconfidence effect in social prediction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 58, 568–581. [13, 14, 16] Google Scholar

Dunning, D., Meyerowitz, J. A., & Holzberg, A. D. (1989). Ambiguity and self-evaluation: The role of idiosyncratic trait definitions in self-serving assessments of ability. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 57, 1082–1090. [19, 27] Google Scholar

Dunning, D., Perie, A., & Story, A. L. (1991). Self-serving prototypes of social categories. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 61, 957–968. [36] Google Scholar

Durkheim, E. (1976). The elementary forms of the religious life (2nd ed.). London: Allen and Unwin. (Original work published 1925). [32] Google Scholar

Dutton, D. G, & Aron, A. P. (1974). Some evidence for heightened sexual attraction under conditions of high anxiety. Journal of Personality & Social Psychology, 30, 510- 517. [10] Google Scholar

Duval, S., & Wicklund, R. A. (1972). A theory of objective self-awareness. New York: Academic Press. [20] Google Scholar

Dweck, C. S. (1986). Motivational processes affecting learning. American Psychologist, 41, 1040–1048. [36] Google Scholar

Eagly, A. H., & Chaiken, S. (1993). The psychology of attitudes. Fort Worth: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich. [14, 22, 29] Google Scholar

Eddy, D. M. (1982). Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: Problems and opportunities. In Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 249–267), D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [39, 41] Google Scholar

Edmonson, F. K. (1934). Velocity of Light. Nature, 133, 759–760. [37] Google Scholar

Edwards, A. L. (1957). Techniques of attitude scale construction. New York: Appleton-Century-Croft. [23] Google Scholar

Edwards, K., & Smith, E. E. (1996). A disconfirmation bias in the evaluation of arguments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 71, 5–24. [36] Google Scholar

Edwards, W. (1954). The theory of decision making. Psychological Bulletin, 51, 380–417. [31] Google Scholar

Edwards, W. (1961). Behavioral decision theory. Annual Review of Psychology, 12, 473- 498. [31] Google Scholar

Edwards, W. (1968). Conservatism in human information processing. In Formal representation of human judgment (pp. 17–52), B. Kleinmuntz (Ed.). New York: Wiley. [Introduction, 13] Google Scholar

Edwards, W. (1970). Comment. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 70, 291- 293. [1] Google Scholar

Edwards, W., Lindman, H., & Savage, L. J. (1963). Bayesian statistical inference for psychological research. Psychological Review, 70, 193–242. [Introduction] Google Scholar

Edwards, W., & von Winterfeldt, D. (1986). Cognitive illusions and their implications for the law. Southern California Law Review, 59, 225–276. [39] Google Scholar

Einhorn, H. J. (1972). Expert measurement and mechanical combination. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 7, 86–106. [40] Google Scholar

Einhorn, H. J., & Hogarth, R. M. (1975). Unit weighting schemes for decision making. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 13, 171–192. [40] Google Scholar

Einhorn, H. J., & Hogarth, R. M. (1978). Confidence in judgment: Persistence of the illusion of validity. Psychological Review, 85, 395–416. [28, 40] Google Scholar

Einhorn, H. J., & Hogarth, R. M. (1981). Behavioral decision theory: Processes of judgment and choice. Annual Review of Psychology, 32, 53–88. [1, 24, 28] Google Scholar

Einhorn, H. J., & Hogarth, R. M. (1982). A theory of diagnostic inference: Imagination and the psychophysics of evidence. Center for Decision Research, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago. [20] Google Scholar

Einhorn, H. J., & Hogarth, R. M. (1985). Ambiguity and uncertainty in probabilistic inference. Psychological Review, 92, 433–461. [6] Google Scholar

Einhorn, H. J., & Hogarth, R. M. (1986). Probable cause: Adecision making framework. Psychological Bulletin, 99, 3–19. [20] Google Scholar

Eisenhardt, C. (1968). Expression of uncertainties of final results. Science, 160, 1201- 1204. [37] Google Scholar

Elliott, R. (1975). Heart ratein anticipation of shocks which have different probabilities of occurrences. Psychological Reports, 36, 923–931. [30] Google Scholar

Ellis, H. D. (1986). Face recall: A psychological perspective. Human Learning. Journal of Practical Research and Applications, 5, 189–196. [17] Google Scholar

Elster, J. (1977). Ulysses and the sirens. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [16] Google Scholar

Elster, J. (1983). Sour grapes: Studies in the subversion of rationality. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [24] Google Scholar

Elster, J., & Loewenstein, G. (1992). Utility from memory and anticipation. In Choice over time (pp. 213–234), J. Elster & G. Loewenstein (Eds.). New York: Russell Sage Foundation. [14] Google Scholar

Elton, E. J., Gruber, M. J., & Gultekin, M. N. (1984). Professional expectations: Accuracy and diagnosis of errors. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 19, 351–365. [38] Google Scholar

Englich, B., & Mussweiler, T. (in press). Legal judgment under uncertainty: Anchoring effects in the court room. Journal of Applied Social Psychology. [6] Google Scholar

Epley, N., & Dunning, D. (2000). Feeling “holier than thou”: Are self-serving assessments produced by errors in self- or social prediction? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 79, 861–875. [14, 36] Google Scholar

Epley, N., & Gilovich, T. (2000a). Anchoring and effortful adjustment from self-generated anchors. Unpublished manuscript, Cornell University. [7] Google Scholar

Epley, N., & Gilovich, T. (2000b). Close but not quite: insufficient adjustment from self-generated anchors. Unpublished manuscript, Cornell University. [7] Google Scholar

Epley, N., & Gilovich, T. (2001). Putting adjustment back in the anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic: Self-generated versus experimenter provided anchors. Psychological Science, 12, 391–396. [Introduction] Google Scholar

Epstein, S. (1994). Integration of the cognitive and psychodynamic unconscious. American Psychologist, 49 (8), 709–724. [2, 23, 24] Google Scholar

Epstein, S., Lipson, A., Holstein, C., & Huh, E. (1992). Irrational reactions to negative outcomes: Evidence for two conceptual systems. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 62, 328–339. [22] Google Scholar

Erber, R., Wegner, D. M., & Therriault, N. (1996). On being cool and collected: Mood regulation in anticipation of social interaction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 70, 757–766. [16] Google Scholar

Erber, R., & Tesser, A. (1992). Task effort and the regulation of mood: The absorption hypothesis. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 28, 339–359. [16] Google Scholar

Erev, I., Wallsten, T. S., & Budescu, D. V. (1994). Simultaneous over- and underconfi-dence: The role of error in judgment processes. Psychological Review, 101, 519–527. [15, 25, 26, 39] Google Scholar

Ericsson, A., & Simon, H. (1994). Verbal reports as data (2nd ed.). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [41] Google Scholar

Erwin, P. G., & Calev, A. (1984). The influence of Christian name stereotypes on the marking of children's essays. British Journal of Educational Psychology, 54, 223–227. [23] Google Scholar

Evans, J. St. B. T. (1982). The psychology of deductive reasoning. London: Routledge. [24] Google Scholar

Evans, J. St. B. T. (1984). Heuristic and analytic processes in reasoning. British Journal of Psychology, 75, 451–468. [24] Google Scholar

Evans, J. St. B. T. (1989). Bias in human reasoning: Causes and consequences. London: Erlbaum Associates. [24] Google Scholar

Evans, J. St. B. T. (1996). Deciding before you think: Relevance and reasoning in the selection task. British Journal of Psychology, 87, 223–240. [24] Google Scholar

Evans, J. St. B. T., Barston, J., & Pollard, P. (1983). On the conflict between logic and belief in syllogistic reasoning. Memory & Cognition, 11, 295–306. [22, 24] Google Scholar

Evans, J. St. B. T., Handley, S. H., Perham, N., Over, D. E., & Thompson, V. A. (2000). Frequency versus probability formats in statistical word problems. Cognition, 77, 197–213. [Introduction] Google Scholar

Evans, J. St. B. T., & Lynch, J. S. (1973). Matching bias in the selection task. British Journal of Psychology, 64, 391–397. [24] Google Scholar

Evans, J. St. B. T., Newstead, S. E., & Byrne, R. M. J. (1993). Human reasoning: The psychology of deduction. Hove, England: Erlbaum. [24] Google Scholar

Evans, J. St. B. T., & Over, D. E. (1996). Rationality and reasoning. Hove, England: Psychology Press. [Introduction, 22, 24] Google Scholar

Evans, J., Handley, S. J., Perham, N., Over, D. E., & Thompson, V. A. (2000). Frequency versus probability formats in statistical word problems. Cognition, 77, 197–213. [2] Google Scholar

Evans-Pritchard, E. E. (1937). Witchcraft, oracles and magic among the Azande. Oxford: Clarendon. [34] Google Scholar

Falk, R. (1981). The perception of randomness. In Proceedings, Fifth International Conference for the Psychology of Mathematics Education. Grenoble, France. [33] Google Scholar

Falk, R. (1992). A closer look at the probabilities of the notorious three prisoners. Cognition, 43, 197–223. [22] Google Scholar

Farber, H. S., & Bazerman, M. H. (1986). The general basis of arbitrator behavior: An empirical analysis of conventional and final offer arbitration. Econometrica, 54, 1503–1528. [39] Google Scholar

Farber, H. S., & Bazerman, M. H. (1989). Divergent expectations as a cause of disagreement in bargaining: Evidence from a comparison of arbitration schemes. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 104, 99–120. [39] Google Scholar

Faust, D. (1984). The limits of scientific reasoning. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota Press. [40] Google Scholar

Fazio, R. H. (1995). Attitudes as object-evaluation associations: Determinants, consequences, and correlates of attitude accessibility. In Attitude strength: Antecedents and consequences (pp. 247–282), R. E. Petty & J. A. Krosnick (Eds.). Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum. [23] Google Scholar

Fazio, R. H., Jackson, J. R., Dunton, B. C., & Williams, C. J. (1995). Variability in automatic activation as an unobtrusive measure of racial attitudes: A bona fide pipeline? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 69, 1013–1027. [10] Google Scholar

Feather, N. T. (1967). Valence of outcome and expectation of success in relation to task difficulty and perceived locus of control. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 7, 372–386. [35] Google Scholar

Feather, N. T. (1969). Attribution of responsibility and valence of success and failure in relation to initial confidence and task performance. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 13, 129–144. [35] Google Scholar

Ferrari, J. R., Johnson, J. L., & McGown, W. G. (1995). Procrastination and task avoidance: Theory, research, and treatment. New York: Plenum Press. [14] Google Scholar

Ferrell, W. R. (1994). Discrete subjective probabilities and decision analysis: Elicitation, calibration, and combination. In Subjective probability (pp. 411–451), G. Wright & P. Ayton (Eds.). Chichester, U.K.: Wiley. [39] Google Scholar

Ferrell, W. R., & McGoey, P. J. (1980). Amodel of calibration for subjective probabilities. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 26, 32–53. [13, 27, 39] Google Scholar

Festinger, L. (1954). A theory of social comparison processes. Human Relations, 7, 117–140. [35] Google Scholar

Festinger, L. (1957). A theory of cognitive dissonance. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. [16, 36] Google Scholar

Festinger, L. (Ed.). (1964). Conflict, decision, and dissonance. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. [42] Google Scholar

Festinger, L., & Maccoby, N. (1964). On resistance to persuasive communications. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 68, 359–366. [9] Google Scholar

Fetherstonhaugh, D., Slovic, P., Johnson, S. M., & Friedrich, J. (1997). Insensitivity to the value of human life: A study of psychophysical numbing. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 14 (3), 282–300. [23] Google Scholar

Fiedler, K. (1988). The dependence of the conjunction fallacy on subtle linguistic factors. Psychological Research, 50, 123–129. [24] Google Scholar

Fiedler, K., & Armbruster, T. (1994). Two halfs may be more than one whole. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 66, 633–645. [25] Google Scholar

Fiedler, K., Pampe, H., & Scherf, U. (1986). Mood an memory for tightly organized social information. European Journal of Social Psychology, 16, 149–164. [29] Google Scholar

Finucane, M. L., Alhakami, A., Slovic, P., & Johnson, S. M. (2000). The affect heuristic in judgments of risks and benefits. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 13, 1–17. [2, 23, 30] Google Scholar

Fischer, G. W., & Hawkins, S. A. (1988). Preference reversals in multiattribute decision making: Scale compatibility, strategy compatibility, and the prominence effect. Carnegie-Mellon University. Typescript. [12] Google Scholar

Fischer, G. W., Morgan, G. M., Fischhoff, B., Nair, I., & Lave, L. B. (1991). What risks are people concerned about? Risk Analysis, 11, 303–314. [41] Google Scholar

Fischer, P. M. (1991). Brand logo recognition by children ages 3 to 6 years: Mickey Mouse and Old Joe the Camel. Journal of the American Medical Association, 266, 3145. [23] Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B., Slovic. P., & Lichtenstein, S. (1981). Lay foibles and expert fables in judgments about risk. In Progress in resource management and environmental planning (Vol. 3, pp. 161–202), T. O'Riordan & R. K. Turner (Eds.). Chichester, U.K.: Wiley. [33] Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight is not equal to foresight: the effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1, 288–299. [5, 6, 8,40,42] Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B. (1980). For those condemned to study the past. In New Directions for Methodology of Social and Behavioral Science (pp. 79–93), R. A. Schweder & D. W. Fiske (Eds.). San Francisco: Jossey-Bass. [40] Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B. (1982a). Debiasing. In Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 422–444), D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [5,10,13,14, 41, 42] Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B. (1982b). For those condemned to study the past: Heuristics and biases in hindsight. In Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 201–208), D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [5,19] Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B. (1984). Setting standards: A systematic approach to managing public health and safety risks. Management Science, 30, 823–843. [41] Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B. (1988). Judgment and decision making. In The psychology of human thought (pp. 153–187), R. Sternberg & E. E. Smith (Eds.). New York: Cambridge University Press. [39] Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B. (1989). Eliciting knowledge for analytical representation. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 13, 448–461. [41] Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B. (1992). Giving advice: Decision theory perspectives on sexual assault. American Psychologist, 47, 577–588. [41] Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B. (1994). What forecasts (seem to) mean. International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 387–403. [41] Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B. (1995). Risk perception and communication unplugged: Twenty years of process. Risk Analysis, 15, 137–145. [41] Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B. (1996). The real world: What good is it? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, 232–248. [41] Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B. (1998). Communicate unto others…. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 59, 63–72. [41] Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B. (1999). Why (cancer) risk communication can be hard. Journal of the National Cancer Institute Monographs, 25, 7–13. [41] Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B. (2000a). Informed consent in eliciting environmental values. Environmental Science and Technology, 38, 1439–1444 [41] Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B. (2000b). Need to know: Analytical and psychological criteria. Roger Williams University Law Review. [41] Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B., & Bar-Hillel, M. (1984). Focusing techniques: A shortcut to improving probability judgments? Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 34, 175–194. [13] Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B., & Beyth, R. (1975). “I knew it would happen” - remembered probabilities of once-future things. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 13, 1–16. [7,8,19, 40] Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B., & Beyth-Marom, R. (1983). Hypothesis evaluation from a Bayesian perspective. Psychological Review, 90, 239–260. [13, 41] Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., & Lichtenstein, S. (1978). Fault trees: Sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 4, 330–344. [14, 25] Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B., Lichtenstein, S., Slovic, P., Derby, S. L., & Keeney R. L. (1981). Acceptable risk. New York: Cambridge University Press. [41] Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B., & MacGregor D. (1982). Subjective confidence in forecasts. Journal of Forecasting, 1, 155–172. [13, 39] Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B., Nadaï, A., & Fischhoff, I. (2001). Investing in Frankenfirms. Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets, 2, 100–111. [41] Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B., Parker, A., Bruine de Bruin, W., Downs, J., Palmgren, C, Dawes, R. M., & Manski, C. (2000). Teen expectations for significant life events. Public Opinion Quarterly, 64, 189–205. [41] Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B., Riley, D., Kovacs, D., & Small, M. (1998). What information belongs in a warning? A mental models approach. Psychology and Marketing, 15, 663–686. [41] Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., & Lichtenstein, S. (1977). Knowing with certainty: The appropriateness of extreme confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 3, 552–564. [15] Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., Lichtenstein, S., Reid, S., & Coombs, B. (1978). How safe is safe enough? A psychometric study of attitudes towards technological risks and benefits. Policy Sciences, 9, 127–152. [23, 41] Google Scholar

Fischhoff, B., & Whipple, C. (1981). Risk Assessment: Evaluating error in subjective estimates. Environmental Professional, 3, 277–291. [37] Google Scholar

Fishbein, M., & Ajzen, I. (1975). Belief, attitude, intention, and behavior: An introduction to theory and research. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley [14] Google Scholar

Fishburn, P. (1983). Nontransitive measurable utility. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 26, 31–67. [21] Google Scholar

Fiske, A., & Tetlock, P. E. (1997). Taboo trade-offs: Reactions to transactions that transgrees spheres of justice. Political Psychology, 18, 255–297. [32] Google Scholar

Fiske, S. T., Kenny, D. A., & Taylor, S. E. (1982). Structural models for the mediation of salience effects on attribution. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 18, 105–127. [20] Google Scholar

Fiske, S. T., & Neuberg, S. L. (1990). A continuum of impression formation, from category-based to individuating processes: Influences of information and motivation on attention and interpretation. In Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 23, pp. 1–74), M. P. Zanna (Ed.). New York: Academic Press. [Introduction, 29] Google Scholar

Fiske, S. T., & Taylor, S. E. (1991). Social cognition, 2nd Ed. New York: McGraw-Hill. [Introduction] Google Scholar

Fitts, P. M., & Seeger, C. M. (1953). S-R compatibility: spatial characteristics of stimulus and response codes. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 46, 199–210. [12] Google Scholar

Flavell, J. (1986). The development of children's knowledge about the appearance-reality distinction. American Psychologist, 41, 418–425. [11] Google Scholar

Flavell, J. H. (1963). The developmental psychology of Jean Piaget. New York: Van Nostrand. [27, 36] Google Scholar

Flavell, J. H. (1985). Cognitive development, 2nd ed. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall. [36] Google Scholar

Fleming, J., & Arrowood, A. J. (1979). Information processing and the perseverance of discredited self-perceptions. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 5, 201–205. [20] Google Scholar

Fodor, J. A. (2000). The mind doesn't work that way: The scope and limits of computational psychology, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. [Introduction] Google Scholar

Fodor, J. A., & Pylyshyn, Z. W. (1988). Connectionism and cognitive architecture: A critical analysis. Cognition, 28, 3–71. [22] Google Scholar

Fong, G. T., Krantz, D. H., & Nisbett, R. E. (1983). Improving inductive reasoning through statistical training. Unpublished manuscript, University of Michigan. [28] Google Scholar

Fong, G. T., Krantz, D. H., & Nisbett, R. E. (1986). The effects of statistical training on thinking about everyday problems. Cognitive Psychology, 18, 253–292. [24] Google Scholar

Fordyce, M. W. (1988). A review of research on the happiness measures: A sixty second index of happiness and mental health. Social Indicators Research, 20, 355–381. [16] Google Scholar

Forer, B. (1949). The fallacy of personal validation: A classroom demonstration of gullibility. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 44, 118–123. [13] Google Scholar

Forgas, J. P. (1995). Emotion in social judgments: Review and a new affect infusion model (AIM). Psychological Bulletin, 117, 39–66. [29] Google Scholar

Forgas, J. P., & Bower, G. H. (1987). Mood effects on person perception judgments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 53, 53–60. [29] Google Scholar

Forster, J., & Strack, F (1996). Influence of overt head movements on memory for valenced words: a case of conceptual-motor compatibility. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 71, 421–430. [7] Google Scholar

Forster, J., & Strack, F. (1997). Motor actions in retrieval of valenced information: a motor congruence effect. Perceptual and Motor Skills, 85, 1419–1427. [7] Google Scholar

Fox, C. R. (1999). Strength of evidence, judged probability, and choice under uncertainty. Cognitive Psychology, 38, 167–189. [27] Google Scholar

Fox, C. R., & Kahneman, D. (1992). Correlations, causes, and heuristics in surveys of life satisfaction. Social Indicators Research, 27, 221–234. [27] Google Scholar

Fox, C. R., Rogers, B. A., & Tversky A. (1996). Options traders exhibit subadditive decision weights. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 13, 5–17. [25, 26, 27] Google Scholar

Fox, C. R., & Tversky, A. (1995). Ambiguity Aversion and comparative ignorance. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110, 585–603. [27] Google Scholar

Fox, C. R., & Tversky, A. (1998). A belief-based account of decision under uncertainty. Management Science, 44, 879–895. [26, 27] Google Scholar

Frame, D. M. (transl.). (1943). The complete essays of Montaigne. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. [8] Google Scholar

Francis, J., & Philbrick, D. R. (1993). Analysts' decisions as products of multi-task environment. Journal pf Accounting Research, 31, 216–230Google Scholar

Frank, M. G., & Gilovich, T. (1988). The dark side of self- and social perception: Black uniforms and aggression in professional sports. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 54, 74–85. [35] Google Scholar

Frank, R. H., & Cook, P. (1995). The winner-take-all society. New York: Free Press. [35] Google Scholar

Franklin, A. D. (1981). Millikan's Published and Unpublished Data on Oil Drops. Historical Studies in Physical Science, 11, 185–201. [37] Google Scholar

Franklin, A. D. (1984). Forging, cooking, trimming, and riding on the bandwagon. American Journal of Physics, 52, 786–793. [37] Google Scholar

Frazer, J. G. (1890/1959). The golden bough: a study in magic and religion. New York: Macmillan. (Reprint of 1922 abridged edition, edited by T. H. Gaster; original work published 1890) [11] Google Scholar

Frederick, S. W., & Fischhoff, B. (1998). Scope (in)sensitivity in elicited valuations. Risk, Decision, and Policy, 3, 109–124. [2,30] Google Scholar

Fredrickson, B. L., & Kahneman, D. (1993). Duration neglect in retrospective evaluations of affective episodes. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65, 45–55. [2,16] Google Scholar

Freud, A. (1936). Ego and the mechanisms of defense (Rev. ed., 1966, trans., C. Baines). New York: International Universities Press. [16] Google Scholar

Freud, S. (1913). The interpretation of dreams. London: George Allen & Unwin. [22] Google Scholar

Freud, S. (1950). Totem and taboo: some points of agreement between the mental lives of savages and neurotics. (J. Strachey, Trans.). New York: W. W. Norton & Co. (Original work published 1913) [11] Google Scholar

Freud, S. (1966). The Dream Work. In Introductory lectures on psychoanalysis (Lecture Ⅺ, pp. 170–183), J. Strachey (Ed. & Trans.). New York: W. W. Norton & Co. (Original work published 1920) [11] Google Scholar

Friedman, N., & Goldszmit, L. (1996). A software for learning Bayesian networks. (Not released for public use.) [31] Google Scholar

Friedman, R. S., & Forster, J. (2000). The effects of approach and avoidance motor actions on the elements of creative insight. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 79, 477–492. [29] Google Scholar

Friedrich, J. (1996). On seeing oneself as less self serving than others: The ultimate self serving bias? Teaching of Psychology, 23, 107–109. [36] Google Scholar

Friedrich, J. Barnes, P., Chapin, K., Dawson, I., Garst, V., & Kerr, D. (1999). Psychophysical numbing: When lives are valued less as the lives at risk increase. Journal of Consumer Psychology, 8(3), 277–299. [23] Google Scholar

Fries, J. F, Bloch, D. A., Sharp, J. T., McShane, D. J., Spitz, P., Bluhm, G. B., Forrester, D., Genant, H., Gofton, P., Richman, S., et al. (1986). Assessment of radiologic progression in rheumatoid arthritis. A randomized, controlled trial. Arthritis and Rheumatism, 29, 1–9. [40] Google Scholar

Frisch, D. (1993). Reasons for froming effects. Organizational Behavior Human Decision Processes, 54, 399–429. [24] Google Scholar

Froome, & Essen. (1973). The Velocity of Light and Radio Waves. London: Academic. [37] Google Scholar

Froot, K. A., & Frankel, J. A. (1989). Forward discount bias: Is it an exchange risk premium? Quarterly Journal of Economics, 104, 139–161. [38] Google Scholar

Funder, D. C. (1982). On the accuracy of dispositional vs. situational attributions. Social Cognition, 1, 205–222. [20] Google Scholar

Funder, D. C. (1987). Errors and mistakes: Evaluating the accuracy of social judgment. Psychological Bulletin, 101, 75–90. [24] Google Scholar

Funtowicz, S., & Ravetz, J. (1990). Uncertainty and quality in science for policy. London: Kluwer. [41] Google Scholar

Furnham, A. F (1988). Lay theories. London: Pergamon Press. [41] Google Scholar

Fussell, S. R., & Krauss, R. M. (1989). The effects of intended audience on message production and comprehension: reference in a common ground framework. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 25, 203–219. [8] Google Scholar

Gabrielcik, A., & Fazio, R. H. (1984). Priming and frequency estimation: A strict test of the availability heuristic. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 10, 85- 89. [5] Google Scholar

Gaeth, G. J., & Shanteau, J. (1984). Reducing the influence of irrelevant information on experienced decision makers. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 33, 263. [37] Google Scholar

Gallagher, D., & Clore, G. L. (1985, May). Effects of fear and anger on judgments of risk and blame. Paper presented at the meetings of the Midwestern Psychological Association, Chicago. [29] Google Scholar

Ganzach, Y. (1996). Preference reversals in equal-probability gambles: A case for anchoring and adjustment. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 92, 95–109. [6] Google Scholar

Ganzach, Y. (2000). Judging risk and return of financial assets. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 83, 353–370. [23] Google Scholar

Ganzach, Y., & Krantz, D. H. (1990). The psychology of moderate prediction. I. Experience with multiple determination. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 47, 177–204. [2] Google Scholar

Garner, W. R. (1962). Uncertainty and structure as psychological concepts. New York: Wiley. [20] Google Scholar

Garner, W. R. (1970). Good patterns have few alternatives. American Scientist, 58, 34–42. [20] Google Scholar

Gati, I., & Tversky A. (1982). Representations of qualitative and quantitative dimensions. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 8, 325–340. [1] Google Scholar

Gerard, H. B., & Mathewson, G. C. (1966). The effects of severity of initiation on liking for a group: A replication. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 2, 278–287. [Introduction] Google Scholar

Gerrard, M., Gibbons, F. X., & Warner, T. D. (1991). Effects of reviewing risk-relevant behavior on perceived vulnerability among women Marines. Health Psychology, 10, 173–179. [17] Google Scholar

Gerrard, M., & Luus, C. A. E. (1995). Judgments of vulnerability to pregnancy: The role of risk factors and individual differences. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 21, 160–171. [19] Google Scholar

Gettys, C. E., Mehle, T., & Fisher, S. (1986). Plausibility assessments in hypothesis generation. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 37, 14–33. [25] Google Scholar

Gigerenzer, G. (1991a). How to make cognitive illusions disappear: Beyond “heuristics and biases.” In European Review of Social Psychology (Vol. 2, pp. 83–115), W. Stroebe & M. Hewstone (Eds.). Chichester, U.K.: Wiley. [2,14] Google Scholar

Gigerenzer, G. (1991b). From tools to theories: A heuristic of discovery in cognitive psychology. Psychological Review, 98, 254–267. [Introduction, 24, 27] Google Scholar

Gigerenzer, G. (1991c). How to make cognitive illusions disappear: Beyond heuristics and biases. European Review of Social Psychology, 2, 83–115. [Introduction, 24] Google Scholar

Gigerenzer, G. (1993). The bounded rationality of probabilistic mental models. In Rationality: Psychological and philosophical perspectives (pp. 284–313), K. Manktelow & D. Over (Eds.). London: Routledge. [24] Google Scholar

Gigerenzer, G. (1994). Why the distinction between single-event probabilities and frequencies is important for psychology (and vice versa). In Subjective probability (pp. 129–161), G. Wright & P. Ayton (Eds.). New York: Wiley. [Introduction, 14, 39] Google Scholar

Gigerenzer, G. (1996). On narrow norms and vague heuristics: A reply to Kahneman and Tversky (1996). Psychological Review, 103, 592–596. [24] Google Scholar

Gigerenzer, G. (1998). Ecological intelligence: An adaptation for frequencies. In The evolution of mind (pp. 9–29), D. Dellarosa Cummins & C. Allen (Eds.). New York: Oxford University Press. [Introduction, 14] Google Scholar

Gigerenzer, G., & Goldstein, D. G. (1996). Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of bounded rationality. Psychological Review, 103, 650–669. [2, 24, 30, 31] Google Scholar

Gigerenzer, G., & Hoffrage, U. (1995). How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats. Psychological Review, 102, 684–704. [2, 24] Google Scholar

Gigerenzer, G., Hell, W., & Blank, H. (1988). Presentation and content - the use of base rates as a continuous variable. Journal of Experimental Psychology - Human Perception and Performance, 14(3), 513–525. [2,13] Google Scholar

Gigerenzer, G., Hoffrage, U., & Kleinbolting, H. (1991). Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psychological Review, 98, 506–528. [13, 31, 39] Google Scholar

Gigerenzer, G., Swijtink, Z., Porter, T., Daston, L., Beatty, J., & Krtiger, L. (1989). The empire of chance: How probability changed science and even life. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [31] Google Scholar

Gigerenzer, G., Todd, P. M., & the ABC Research Group. (1999). Simple heuristics that make us smart, New York: Oxford University Press. [Introduction, 2, 30, 31] Google Scholar

Gilbert, D. (1989). Thinking lightly about others: Automatic components of the social inference process. In Unintended thought (pp. 189–211), J. Uleman & J. A. Bargh (Eds.). New York: Guilford. [2,7] Google Scholar

Gilbert, D. T. (1990). Unbelieving the unbelievable: Some problems in the rejection of false information. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 59, 601–613. [6] Google Scholar

Gilbert, D. T. (1991). How mental systems believe. American Psychologist, 46, 107–119. [2, 6,9,10,16] Google Scholar

Gilbert, D. T. (1993). The assent of man: Mental representation and the control of belief. In The handbook of mental control (pp. 57–87), D. M. Wegner & J. W. Pennebaker, (Eds.). Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall. [9,10] Google Scholar

Gilbert, D. T. (1999). What the mind's not. In Dual process theories in social psychology (pp. 3–11), S. Chaiken & Y. Trope (Eds.). New York: Guilford. [2, 9] Google Scholar

Gilbert, D. T., Giesler, R. B., & Morris, K. A. (1995). When comparisons arise. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 69, 227–236. [9] Google Scholar

Gilbert, D. T., Gill, M. J., & Wilson, T. D. (in press). The future is now: Temporal correction in affective forecasting. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. [16] Google Scholar

Gilbert, D. T., Krull, D. S., & Malone, P. S. (1990). Unbelieving the unbelievable: Some problems in the rejection of false information. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 59, 601–613. [9] Google Scholar

Gilbert, D. T., Krull, D. S., & Pelham, B. W. (1988). Of thoughts unspoken: Social inference and the self-regulation of behavior. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 55, 685–694. [9] Google Scholar

Gilbert, D. T., McNulty S. E., Giuliano, T. A., & Benson, J. E. (1992). Blurry words and fuzzy deeds: The attribution of obscure behavior. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 62, 18–25. [9] Google Scholar

Gilbert, D. T., & Malone, P. S. (1995). The correspondence bias. Psychological Bulletin, 117, 21–38. [9, 36] Google Scholar

Gilbert, D. T., Miller, A. G., & Ross, L. (1998). Speeding with Ned: A personal view of the correspondence bias. In Attribution and social interaction: the legacy of Edward E. Jones (pp. 5–66), J. M. Darley & J. Cooper (Eds.). Washington, DC: American Psychological Association. [6] Google Scholar

Gilbert, D. T., & Osborne, R. E. (1989). Thinking backward: Some curable and incurable consequences of cognitive busyness. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 57, 940–949. [8, 9] Google Scholar

Gilbert, D. T., Pelham, B. W., & Krull, D. S. (1988). On cognitive busyness: When person perceivers meet person receivers. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 54, 733–740. [6, 8,9] Google Scholar

Gilbert, D. T., Tafarodi, R. W., & Malone, P. S. (1993). You can't not believe everything you read. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65, 221–233. [6, 9] Google Scholar

Gilbert, D. T., & Wilson, T. D. (2000). Miswanting: Some problems in the forecasting of future affective states. In Feeling and thinking: The role of affect in social cognition (pp. 178–198), J. Forgas (Ed.). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. [14,16] Google Scholar

Gilboa, I., & Schmeidler, D. (1994). Additive representations of non-additive measures and the Choquet integral. Annals of Operation Research, 51, 43–65. [25] Google Scholar

Gill, M., & Gilbert, D. T. (1999). Sequential operations in self-perception. Unpublished data. [9] Google Scholar

Gillies, G. T. (1983). The Newtonian Gravitational Constant: An Index of Measurements (BIPM-83/1), Bureau International des Poids et Mesures. [37] Google Scholar

Gilovich, T. (1983). Biased evaluation and persistence in gambling. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 44, 1110–1126. [18,19, 33] Google Scholar

Gilovich, T. (1990). Differential construal and the false consensus effect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 59, 623–634. [36] Google Scholar

Gilovich, T. (1991). How we know what isn't so: The fallibility of human judgment in everyday life, New York: Free Press. [Introduction, 34, 41] Google Scholar

Gilovich, T. (2000, June). Motivated skepticism and motivated credulity: Differential standards of evidence in the evaluation of desired and undesired propositions. Address presented at the 12th Annual Convention of the American Psychological Society, Miami Beach, Florida. [27] Google Scholar

Gilovich, T., Kerr, M., & Medvec, V. H. (1993). Effect of temporal perspective on subjective confidence. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 64, 552–560. [19] Google Scholar

Gilovich, T., & Medvec, V. H. (1995). The experience of regret: What, when, and why. Psychological Review, 102, 379–395. [16] Google Scholar

Gilovich, T., Medvec, V. H., & Chen, S. (1995). Omission, commission, and dissonance reduction: Coping with regret in the “Monty Hall” problem. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 21, 182–190. [21] Google Scholar

Gilovich, T., Medvec, V. H., & Savitsky K. (2000). The spotlight effect in social judgment: An egocentric bias in estimates of the salience of one's own actions and appearance. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 78, 211–222. [7] Google Scholar

Gilovich, T., & Savitsky, K. (1999). The spotlight effect and the illusion of transparency: egocentric assessments of how we're seen by others. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 8, 165–168. [7, 8] Google Scholar

Gilovich, T., Savitsky, K., & Medvec, V. H. (1998). The illusion of transparency: Biased assessments of others' ability to read our emotional states. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 75, 332–346. [7,8] Google Scholar

Gilovich, T., Vallone, R. P., & Tversky A. (1985). The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences. Cognitive Psychology, 17, 295–314. [35] Google Scholar

Girotto, V., & Gonzalez, M. (2001). Solving probabilistic and statistical problems: A matter of information structure and question form. Cognition, 78, 247–276. [Introduction] Google Scholar

Glaser, R. (1990). Expertise. In The Blackwell dictionary of cognitive psychology (p. 139), M. W. Eysenk, A. N. Ellis, E. Hunt, & P. Johnson-Laird (Eds.). Oxford, U.K.: Blackwell Reference. [39] Google Scholar

Gleicher, F, Boninger, D. S., Strathman, A., Armor, D., Hetts, J., & Ahn, M. (1995). With an eye toward the future: The impact of counterfactual thinking on affect, attitudes, and behavior. In What might have been: The social psychology of counterfactual thinking (pp. 283–304), N. J. Roese & J. M. Olson (Eds.). Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. [21] Google Scholar

Goldaper, S. (1990, June 9). Pistons put the game on the line. The New York Times, p. C46. [21] Google Scholar

Goldberg, J. H., Lerner, J. S., & Tetlock, P. E. (1999). Rage and reason: The psychology of the intuitive prosecutor. European Journal of Social Psychology, 29, 781–795. [32] Google Scholar

Goldberg, L. R. (1965). “Diagnosticians vs. diagnostic signs: The diagnosis of psychosis vs. neurosis from the MMPI,” Psychological Monographs, 79 (9, Whole No. 602). [40] Google Scholar

Goldberg, L. R. (1968). Simple models or simple processes? Some research on clinical judgment. American Psychologist, 23, 483–496. [40, 41] Google Scholar

Goldberg, L. R. (1970). Man versus model of man: A rationale, plus some evidence, for a method of improving on clinical inferences. Psychological Bulletin, 73, 422–432. [40] Google Scholar

Goldman, A. I. (1978). Epistemics: The regulative theory of cognition. Journal of Philosophy, 55, 509–523. [24] Google Scholar

Goldsmith, R. W. (1978). Assessing probabilities of compound events in a judicial context. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 19, 103–110. [1] Google Scholar

Goldstein, D. G., & Gigerenzer, G. (1996). Satisficing inference and the perks of ignorance. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 137–141), G. W. Cottrell (Ed.). Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum. [31] Google Scholar

Goldstein, W. M. (1984). The relationship between judgment and choice. Unpublished Doctoral dissertation, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. [23] Google Scholar

Goldstein, W. M., & Einhom, H. J. (1987). Expression theory and the preference reversal phenomena. Psychological Review, 94, 236–254. [6,12, 23] Google Scholar

Gollwitzer, P. M. (1993). Goal achievement: The role of intentions. In European review of social psychology (Vol. 4, pp. 141–185), W. Stroebe & M. Hewstone (Eds.). London: John Wiley & Sons. [16] Google Scholar

Gollwitzer, P. M. (1999). Implementation intentions: Strong effects of simple plans. American Psychologist, 54, 493–503. [14] Google Scholar

Gollwitzer, P. M., & Brandstatter, V. (1997). Implementation intentions and effective goal pursuit. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 73, 186–199. [14] Google Scholar

Gollwitzer, P. M., Heckhausen, H., & Steller, B. (1990). Deliberative and implemental mindsets: Cognitive tuning toward congruous thoughts and information. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 59, 1119–1127. [16] Google Scholar

Gonzales, M., & Bonini, N. (1995). Probability judgments in two-outcome situations: What induces a defect in complementarity? Unpublished manuscript, Centre de Recherche en Psychologie Cognitive, University de Provence, Aix-en-Provence, France. [26] Google Scholar

Good, I. J. (1971). The probabilistic explication of information, evidence surprise, causality, explanation, and utility. In Foundations of statistical inference: Proceedings on the foundations of statistical inference, V. P. Godambe & D. A. Sprott (Eds.). Toronto, Ontario: Holt, Rinchart & Winston. [1] Google Scholar

Goodman-Delahunty J., Granhag, P. A., & Loftus, E. F. (1998). How well can lawyers predict their chances of success? Unpublished manuscript, University of Washington. [39] Google Scholar

Gopnik, A., & Wellman, H. (1992). Why the child's theory of mind is really a theory. Mind and Language, 7, 145–171. [8] Google Scholar

Gough, P. B. (1965). Grammatical transformations and speed of understanding. Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, 4, 107–111. [9] Google Scholar

Gough, P. B. (1966). The verification of sentences: the effects of delay of evidence and sentence length. Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, 5, 492–496. [9] Google Scholar

Gould, S. J. (1991). Bully for brontosaurus. Reflections in natural history. New York: Norton. [2, 22] Google Scholar

Gould, S. J. (1995). Dinosaur in a haystack: Reflections in natural history. New York: Harmony Books. [42] Google Scholar

Gould, S. J. (1997). The pleasures of pluralism. New York Review of Books, June 26. [Introduction] Google Scholar

Grayson, C. E., & Schwarz, N. (1999). Beliefs influence information processing strategies: declarative and experiential information in risk assessment. Social Cognition, 17, 1–18. [5] Google Scholar

Green, A. E., & Bourne, A. J. (1972). Reliability technology. New York: Wiley. [37] Google Scholar

Green, D., Jacowitz, K. E., Kahneman, D., & McFadden, D. (1998). Referendum contingent valuation, anchoring, and willingness to pay for public goods. Resource and Energy Economics, 20, 85–116. [6] Google Scholar

Green, M., Visser, P., & Tetlock, P. E. (1999). Copingwith accountability cross-pressures: Low-effort evasive tactics and high-effort quests for complex compromises. Unpublished manuscript, The Ohio State University. [32] Google Scholar

Greene, S. B., Gerrig, R. J., McKoon, G., & Ratcliff, R. (1994). Unheralded pronouns and management by common ground. Journal of Memory and Language, 33, 511–526. [8] Google Scholar

Greenwald, A. G. (1980). The totalitarian ego: Fabrication and revision of personal history. American Psychologist, 35, 603–618. [16] Google Scholar

Greenwald, A. G., & Banaji, M. R. (1995). Implicit social cognition: Attitudes, self-esteem, and stereotypes. Psychological Review, 102, 4–27. [16] Google Scholar

Greenwald, A. G., Carnot, C. G., Beach, R., & Young, B. (1987). Increasing voter behavior by asking people if the expect to vote. Journal of Applied Psychology, 72, 315–318. [19] Google Scholar

Greenwald, A. G., McGhee, D. E., & Schwartz, J. L. K. (1998). Measuring individual differences in implicit cognition: the Implicit Association Test. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 74, 1464–1480. [10] Google Scholar

Greenwald, A. G., Pratkanis, A. R., Leippe, M. R., & Baumgardner, M. H. (1986). Under what conditions does theory obstruct research progress? Psychological Review, 93, 216–229. [40] Google Scholar

Gregory, W. L., Cialdini, R. B., & Carpenter, K. M. (1982). Self-relevant scenarios as mediators of likelihood estimates and compliance: Does imagining make it so? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 43, 89–99. [4, 17] Google Scholar

Grether, D. M. (1980). Bayes' rule as a descriptive model: The representativeness heuristic. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 95, 537–557. [13] Google Scholar

Grether, D. M. (1992). Testing Bayes' rule and the representativeness heuristic: Some experimental evidence. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 17, 31–57. [13] Google Scholar

Grether, D. M., & Plott, C. R. (1979). Economic theory of choice and the preference reversal phenomenon. American Economic Review, 69, 623–638. [Introduction, 12] Google Scholar

Grice, H. P. (1975). Logic and conversation. In Syntax and semantics. Vol. 3. Speech acts, (pp. 41–58), P. Cole and J. L. Morgan (Eds.). New York: Academic Press. [1, 6,8, 20, 32] Google Scholar

Griffin, D. W., & Buehler, R. (1999). Frequency, probability, and prediction: Easy solutions to cognitive illusions? Cognitive Psychology, 38, 48–78. [Introduction, 14, 19] Google Scholar

Griffin, D. W., Dunning, D., & Ross, L. (1990). The role of construal processes in overconfident predictions about the self and others. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 59, 1128–1139. [14, 16] Google Scholar

Griffin, D. W., Gonzalez, R., & Varey, C. (2001). The heuristics and biases approach to judgment under uncertainty. In Blackwell handbook of social psychology: Intrapersonal processes, N. Schwarz & A. Tesser (Eds.). Oxford, U.K.: Blackwell Publishers. [8, 27, 34, 39] Google Scholar

Griffin, D. W., & Kahneman, D. (in press). Judgmental heuristics: Human strength or human weakness? In The Psychology of Human Strengths (pp. 319–359), L. Aspinwall & U. Staudinger (Eds.). APA Books. [Introduction] Google Scholar

Griffin, D. W., & Ross, L. (1991). Subjective construal, social inference and human misunderstanding. In Advances in Experimental Social Psychology (Vol. 21, pp. 319–359), M. P. Zanna (Ed.). New York: Academic Press. [Introduction, 8,16, 42] Google Scholar

Griffin, D. W., & Tversky, A. (1992). The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence. Cognitive Psychology, 24, 411–435. [Introduction, 2,6,8,14,15, 27,39] Google Scholar

Griffin, D., & Varey, C. (1996). Towards a consensus on overconfidence. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, 227–231. [39] Google Scholar

Griffith, R. M. (1949). Odds adjustments by American horse-race bettors. American Journal of Psychology, 62, 290–294. [13] Google Scholar

Griffth, R. W., & Rogers, R. W. (1976). Effects of fear-arousing components of driver education on students' safety attitudes and simulator performance. Journal of Educational Psychology, 68, 501–506. [17] Google Scholar

Griggs, R. A., & Cox, J. R. (1982). The elusive thematic-materials effect in Wason's selection task. British Journal of Psychology, 73, 407–420. [24] Google Scholar

Griggs, R. A., & Cox, J. R. (1983). The effects of problem content and negation on Wason's selection task. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 35, 519–533. [24] Google Scholar

Grove, W. M., & Meehl, P. E. (1996). Comparative efficiency of informal (subjective, impressionistic) and formal (mechanical, algorithmic) prediction procedures: The clinical/statistical controversy. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 2, 1–31. [40] Google Scholar

Grove, W. M., Zald, D. H., Lebow, B. S., Snitz, B. E., & Nelson, C. (2000). Clinical vs. mechanical prediction: A meta-analysis. Psychological Assessment, 12, 19–30. [40] Google Scholar

Guilmette, T. J., Faust, D., Hart, K., & Arkes, H. R. (1990). A national survey of psychologists who offer neuropsychological services. Archives of Clinical Neuropsychology, 5, 373–392. [40] Google Scholar

Gunther, A. C. (1995). Overrating the X-rating: The third-person perception and support for censorship of pornography. Journal of Communication, 45, 26–39. [36] Google Scholar

Gur, R. C, & Sackheim, H. A. (1979). Self-deception: A concept in search of a phenomenon. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 37, 147–169. [16] Google Scholar

Gardenfors, P., & Sahlin, N. E. (Eds.). (1989). Decision, probability and utility. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. [41] Google Scholar

Haddock, G., Rothman, A. J., Reber, R., & Schwarz, N. (1999). Forming judgments of attitude certainty, importance, and intensity: the role of subjective experiences. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 25, 771–782. [5] Google Scholar

Hagafors, R., & Brehmer, B. (1983). Does having to justify one's judgments change the nature of the judgment process? Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 31, 223–232. [32] Google Scholar

Haidt, J., Koller, S., & Dias, M. (1993). Affect, culture, and morality: Or, is it wrong to eat your dog? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65, 613–628. [11] Google Scholar

Haidt, J., McCauley C. R., & Rozin, P. (1994). A scale to measure disgust sensitivity. Personality and Individual Differences, 16, 701–713. [11] Google Scholar

Hakmiller, K. L. (1966). Threat as a determinant of downward comparison. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, Supplement 1, 32–39. [17] Google Scholar

Halbower, C. C. (1955). A comparison of actuarial vs. clinical prediction to classes discriminated by the Minnesota multiphasic personality inventory. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, University of Minnesota. [40] Google Scholar

Hall, P. (1980). Great planning disasters. London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson. [14] Google Scholar

Hallenback, C. (1920). Forecasting precipitation in percentages of probability. Monthly Weather Review, 645–647. [39] Google Scholar

Hamer, C. (1981). “Good-fishin!” (2nd ed.). St. Paul, MN: P. F., Inc. [28] Google Scholar

Hammond (1996). Human Judgment and Social Policy: Irreducible Uncertainty, Inevitable Error, Unavoidable Injustice. New York: Oxford. [2,39] Google Scholar

Hammond, K. R. (1955). Probabilistic functioning and the clinical method. Psychological Review, 62, 255–262. [2] Google Scholar

Hammond, K. R., & Brehmer, B. (1973). Quasi-rationality and distrust: Implications for international conflict. In Human judgment and social interaction, L. Rappoport & D. A. Summers (Eds.). New York: Holt, Rinehart & Winston. [1] Google Scholar

Hammond, K., Hursch, C, & Todd, F. (1964). Analyzing the components of Clinical Inference. Psychological Review, 71, 438. [39] Google Scholar

Hammond, K. R., & Summers, D. A. (1965). Cognitive dependence on linear and nonlinear cues. Psychological Review, 72, 215–224. [40] Google Scholar

Hampson, S. E., John, O. P., & Goldberg. L. R. (1986). Category breadth and hierarchical structure in personality: Studies of asymmetries in judgments of trait implications. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51, 37–54. [18] Google Scholar

Hansen, R. D., & Donoghue, J. M. (1977). The power of consensus: Information derived from one's own and other's behavior. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 35, 294–302. [20] Google Scholar

Hanslin, J. M. (1967). Craps and magic. American Journal of Sociology, 73, 316–330. [34] Google Scholar

Hanson, J. D., & Kysar, D. A. (1999a). Taking behavioralism seriously: Some evidence of market manipulation. Harvard Law Review, 112(7), 1420–1572. [23, 41] Google Scholar

Hanson, J. D., & Kysar, D. A. (1999b). Taking behavioralism seriously: The problem of market manipulation. New York University Law Review, 74 (3), 630–749. [23, 41] Google Scholar

Hanson, J. D., & Kysar, D. A. (2001). The joint failure of economic theory and legal regulation. In Smoking: Risk, perception, and policy (pp. 229–276), P. Slovic (Ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. [23] Google Scholar

Harari, H., & McDavid, J. W. (1973). Name stereotypes and teachers' expectations. Journal of Educational Psychology, 65, 222–225. [23] Google Scholar

Hare, R. D. (1965). Psychopathy, fear arousal and anticipated pain. Psychological Reports, 16, 499–502. [23]