The demographic history of Australia between 1788 and 1850 is a story of two conflicting experiences — a rapidly declining Aboriginal and an escalating colonial population. It is possible, though there is no prospect of affirming this confidently, that the total population of Australia was less, and perhaps much less, in 1850 than it had been in 1788. My own guesstimates of Aboriginal population suggest that their numbers may have fallen from 1 million to less than half that figure in the course of some 62 years. In the meantime, introduced colonial population rose from a round figure of 1000 to 400000. On this basis, the total Australian population fell during these years following colonial settlement. In the light of this, how do we assess colonial ‘achievement’ to 1850? How far did it depend on and acquire special advantages from the displacement of Aborigines?

Australian colonial population grew at extremely high rates, close to 9 per cent per annum compounded over the 1788–50 period. There were fluctuations in this process, but the average rate of expansion was extraordinarily high. Does a high rate of population increase, particularly one in which external inflows are major influences, encourage or discourage efficiency or productivity? How does such a rapidly expanding population depend on the combination of this labour with the available natural resources? To what extent are in-built human capital characteristics vital for achieved performance?