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Chapter 6 - Risk Predictions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 May 2020

Thomas B. Newman
Affiliation:
University of California, San Francisco
Michael A. Kohn
Affiliation:
University of California, San Francisco
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Summary

In previous chapters, we discussed issues affecting evaluation and use of diagnostic tests: how to assess test reliability and accuracy, how to combine the results of tests with prior information to estimate disease probability, and how a test’s value depends on the decision it will guide and the relative cost of errors. In this chapter, we move from diagnosing prevalent disease to predicting incident outcomes. We will discuss the difference between diagnostic tests and risk predictions and then focus on evaluating predictions, specifically covering calibration, discrimination, net benefit calculations, and decision curves.

Type
Chapter
Information
Evidence-Based Diagnosis
An Introduction to Clinical Epidemiology
, pp. 144 - 174
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2020

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  • Risk Predictions
  • Thomas B. Newman, University of California, San Francisco, Michael A. Kohn, University of California, San Francisco
  • Book: Evidence-Based Diagnosis
  • Online publication: 02 May 2020
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108500111.007
Available formats
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Send book to Dropbox

To send content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about sending content to Dropbox.

  • Risk Predictions
  • Thomas B. Newman, University of California, San Francisco, Michael A. Kohn, University of California, San Francisco
  • Book: Evidence-Based Diagnosis
  • Online publication: 02 May 2020
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108500111.007
Available formats
×

Send book to Google Drive

To send content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about sending content to Google Drive.

  • Risk Predictions
  • Thomas B. Newman, University of California, San Francisco, Michael A. Kohn, University of California, San Francisco
  • Book: Evidence-Based Diagnosis
  • Online publication: 02 May 2020
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108500111.007
Available formats
×