Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-v5vhk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-06-16T16:53:40.668Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

3 - Hypotheses and Data: The Theoretical and Empirical Setting

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 December 2009

Wouter van der Brug
Affiliation:
Universiteit van Amsterdam
Cees van der EijK
Affiliation:
University of Nottingham
Mark Franklin
Affiliation:
European University Institute, Florence
Get access

Summary

In this chapter, we will pull together the theoretical expectations we derive from the relevant literature (much of which has already been referred to in Chapter 1) and set them out in the form of testable hypotheses. These expectations mainly concern the effects of economic conditions on voting. They will be complemented, however, by expectations that are included to produce the control variables we need if our models are to be well specified. Having set out the relevant hypotheses, we will then describe the data with which we test those hypotheses, and the economic and political settings from which the data were obtained.

Hypotheses

Our theorizing can be divided into three categories. First is the fundamental expectation upon which all of the economic voting literature is based: that government standing with the voters will be hurt by bad economic times and (perhaps) helped by good economic times (e.g., Tufte 1978; Chrystal and Alt 1981; Hibbs 1977; Fair 1988; Lewis-Beck 1988; Markus 1988, 1992; Erikson 1989; Mackuen, Erikson, and Stimson 1992; Powell and Whitten 1993; Whitten and Palmer 1999; Nadeau and Lewis-Beck 2001), together with its generally unspoken corollary relating to opposition parties (that they should in some way suffer less or even benefit from bad economic conditions). Then we move on to the elaborations of this hypothesis that become possible in the context of models that distinguish between different government (and opposition) parties.

Type
Chapter
Information
The Economy and the Vote
Economic Conditions and Elections in Fifteen Countries
, pp. 54 - 81
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2007

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×