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We use statistical analyses to test our predictions using the measures we collect for our sample. Like all aspects of study design, we need to think carefully about our choice of analytical approach. Planning our data analysis in detail, before we collect your data, helps to determine what data we need to collect. It is very common to rush past the analysis plan and dive straight into collecting data. This is partly because statistics are not intuitive and can be intimidating. However, statistical analysis is an integral part of study design. We must understand statistics to understand the strengths, limitations, and potential biases of any research. This may seem daunting, but our understanding of statistics determines the quality of a study. The more we think about this now, the better our study will be. I begin this chapter with how to determine what sort of analyses we need and the need to consult a statistician when we design a study. Next, I cover problems associated with multiple testing and assessing multiple predictor variables. I explain how to prepare an analysis plan and suggest pre-registration.
The Indian Supreme Court has been called “the most powerful court in the world” for its wide jurisdiction, its expansive understanding of its own powers, and the billion plus people under its authority. Yet scholars and policy makers have a very uneven picture of the court’s functioning: deep knowledge about the more visible, “high-profile” cases but very little about more mundane, but far more numerous and potentially equally important, decisions. This chapter aims to address this imbalance with a rigorous, empirical account of the Court’s decisions from 2010 to 2015. We use the most extensive original dataset of Indian Supreme Court opinions yet created to provide a broad, quantitative overview of the social identity of the litigants that approach the court, the types of matters they bring to the court, the levels of success that different groups of litigants have before the Court, and the opinion-writing patterns of the various judges of the Supreme Court. This analysis provides foundational facts for the study of the Court and its role in progressive social change.
The Indian Supreme Court sits in panels and can have up to 31 judges. This chapter explores how the Indian Supreme Court developed its current structure and the impact of this structure on its functioning. It argues that the Supreme Court’s structure has a range of inter-related effects that includes increasing access to the Court, producing a “polyvocal” jurisprudence that destabilizes stare decisis, spurring experimentation among judges, fostering a “Chief Justice dominant” Court, and reducing the perceived partisanship of judges. Mapping the structure of the Court, as well as the Court’s relationship with the rest of the judiciary, helps us appreciate how judges ultimately interpret the law and the Constitution not in isolation, but within a larger judicial architecture.
Few personalised medicine investigations have been conducted for mental health. We aimed to generate and validate a risk tool that predicts adult attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).
Using logistic regression models, we generated a risk tool in a representative population cohort (ALSPAC – UK, 5113 participants, followed from birth to age 17) using childhood clinical and sociodemographic data with internal validation. Predictors included sex, socioeconomic status, single-parent family, ADHD symptoms, comorbid disruptive disorders, childhood maltreatment, ADHD symptoms, depressive symptoms, mother's depression and intelligence quotient. The outcome was defined as a categorical diagnosis of ADHD in young adulthood without requiring age at onset criteria. We also tested Machine Learning approaches for developing the risk models: Random Forest, Stochastic Gradient Boosting and Artificial Neural Network. The risk tool was externally validated in the E-Risk cohort (UK, 2040 participants, birth to age 18), the 1993 Pelotas Birth Cohort (Brazil, 3911 participants, birth to age 18) and the MTA clinical sample (USA, 476 children with ADHD and 241 controls followed for 16 years from a minimum of 8 and a maximum of 26 years old).
The overall prevalence of adult ADHD ranged from 8.1 to 12% in the population-based samples, and was 28.6% in the clinical sample. The internal performance of the model in the generating sample was good, with an area under the curve (AUC) for predicting adult ADHD of 0.82 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.79–0.83). Calibration plots showed good agreement between predicted and observed event frequencies from 0 to 60% probability. In the UK birth cohort test sample, the AUC was 0.75 (95% CI 0.71–0.78). In the Brazilian birth cohort test sample, the AUC was significantly lower –0.57 (95% CI 0.54–0.60). In the clinical trial test sample, the AUC was 0.76 (95% CI 0.73–0.80). The risk model did not predict adult anxiety or major depressive disorder. Machine Learning approaches did not outperform logistic regression models. An open-source and free risk calculator was generated for clinical use and is available online at https://ufrgs.br/prodah/adhd-calculator/.
The risk tool based on childhood characteristics specifically predicts adult ADHD in European and North-American population-based and clinical samples with comparable discrimination to commonly used clinical tools in internal medicine and higher than most previous attempts for mental and neurological disorders. However, its use in middle-income settings requires caution.
The statistical distributions of main-sequence multiple-star properties reveal invaluable insights into the processes of binary star formation, and they provide initial conditions for population synthesis studies of binary star evolution. Binary stars are discovered and characterised through a variety of techniques. Correcting for their respective selection effects and combining the bias-corrected results is not a trivial process. This is partially because the intrinsic distributions of companion frequency, primary mass M1, orbital period P, mass ratio q and eccentricity e are all interrelated , i.e., f(M1,P,q,e)/= f(M1)f(P)f(q)f(e). In particular, the binary fraction increases with primary mass, especially across short orbital periods, and binaries become weighted towards larger eccentricities and more extreme mass ratios with increasing separation, especially for more massive primaries. Moreover, binary star statistics vary with age, environment and metallicity. This chapter summarises the strengths and limitations of the various observational techniques, and reviews the statistical correlations in the intrinsic (bias-corrected) multiple-star properties.
Stars are mostly found in binary and multiple systems, as at least 50% of all solarlike stars have companions – a fraction that goes up to 100% for the most massive stars. Moreover, a large fraction of them will interact in some way or another: at least half of the binary systems containing solarlike stars, in particular when the primary will evolve on the Asymptotic Giant Branch and at least 70% of all massive stars. Such interactions can, and often will, alter the structure and evolution of both components in the system. This will, in turn, lead to the production of exotic objects whose existence cannot be explained by standard stellar evolution models. Moreover, the chapter explores one of the most luminous stars in our Galaxy, Eta Carinae. The year 2016 saw the first ever announcement of the detection of gravitational waves, coming from the merging of a binary black hole. In this chapter, the author leads the reader through a walk in the zoo of binary stars, highlighting some specific examples.
We define statistics of quantum mechanical particles, obtaining the Bose–Einstein and Fermi–Dirac varieties of indistinguishable particles. After finding the rotation and Lorentz matrices in different Lorentz representations, we describe the spin-statistics theorem, relating fermions with half-integer spin and bosons with integer spin. We explain two simple proofs and say some words on two others. We end by discussing symmetries in more generality, and we discuss the fact that internal symmetries must commute with spacetime ones, due to the Coleman–Mandula theorem.
The paper argues that epidemic surveillance and state-building were closely interconnected in interwar Poland. Starting from the paper technology of weekly epidemiological reporting it discusses how the reporting scheme of Polish epidemics came into being in the context of a typhus epidemic in 1919–20. It then shows how the statistics regarding nation-wide epidemics was put into practice. It is only when we take into account these practices that we can understand the epidemiological order the statistics produced. The preprinted weekly report form registered Jews and Christians separately. Yet, the imagined national epidemiological space that emerged from it hardly took notice of this separation. Rather, the category that differentiated Polish epidemiological space in medical discourse was the capacity of contributing to the state-making practices of epidemic surveillance. This category divided Poland into two regions: a civilized and modern western region and a backward and peripheral eastern region.
Significant ethnic and socio-economic disparities exist in infectious diseases (IDs) rates in New Zealand, so accurate measures of these characteristics are required. This study compared methods of ascribing ethnicity and socio-economic status. Children in the Growing Up in New Zealand longitudinal cohort were ascribed to self-prioritised, total response and single-combined ethnic groups. Socio-economic status was measured using household income, and both census-derived and survey-derived deprivation indices. Rates of ID hospitalisation were compared using linked administrative data. Self-prioritised ethnicity was simplest to use. Total response accounted for mixed ethnicity and allowed overlap between groups. Single-combined ethnicity required aggregation of small groups to maintain power but offered greater detail. Regardless of the method used, Māori and Pacific children, and children in the most socio-economically deprived households had a greater risk of ID hospitalisation. Risk differences between self-prioritised and total response methods were not significant for Māori and Pacific children but single-combined ethnicity revealed a diversity of risk within these groups. Household income was affected by non-random missing data. The census-derived deprivation index offered a high level of completeness with some risk of multicollinearity and concerns regarding the ecological fallacy. The survey-derived index required extra questions but was acceptable to participants and provided individualised data. Based on these results, the use of single-combined ethnicity and an individualised survey-derived index of deprivation are recommended where sample size and data structure allow it.
Poverty has a long history in Africa. Yet, the most conventional and influential history of African poverty is a very short one. As told by the World Bank, the history of poverty starts in the 1980s with the first Living Standard Measurement Study. This history of poverty by numbers is also a very narrow one. There is a disconnect between the theoretical and historical underpinnings of how academics understand and define poverty in Africa, and how it has been quantified in practice. While it is generally agreed that poverty is multidimensional and has certain time- and location-specific aspects, the shorthand definition for poverty is the dollar-per-day metric. This article reveals how particular types of knowledge about poverty have gained prominence and thus shaped the dominant interpretation of poverty in Africa. It argues that, based on other numerical evidence, the history of poverty in Africa could be radically different from the dominant interpretation today.
Much research shows that women and men have different taste acuities and preferences. If female and male judges tend to assign different ratings to the same wines, then the gender balances of the judge panels will bias awards. Existing research supports the null hypothesis, however, that finding is based on small sample sizes. This article presents the results for a large sample; 260 wines and 1,736 wine-score observations. Subject to the strong qualification that non-gender-related variation is material, the results affirm that female and male judges do assign about the same ratings to the same wines. The expected value of the difference in their mean ratings is zero. (JEL Classifications: A10, C00, C10, C12, D12)
Completed suicide (CS) is a leading cause of death worldwide and its rates are available for most developed countries. On the other hand, attempted suicide (AS) is a risk factor for CS but there are limited data on its rates in various countries. In constructing a ratio for AS/CS rates, most would agree that for CS, the denominator should be the annual suicide rate (per 100 000). As for the ratio's numerator (AS) per 100 000, there are three possible calculations: (1) annual prevalence from population surveys, (2) annual prevalence from national clinical registers or (3) lifetime prevalence from population surveys. We think that the first possibility would probably be the best choice but, unfortunately, surveys providing the annual prevalence of AS are lacking for most countries. Annual prevalence from national registers is also lacking for most countries and is contaminated by under-reporting. Therefore, in this editorial, we are left with only the last option, a ratio for lifetime prevalence of AS (per 100 000) divided by annual rate of CS (per 100 000). This ratio for AS/CS rates appears to differ substantially across countries worldwide but presents no big regional differences other than two remarkable exceptions, one per continent. In Europe, Spain and France had greater ratios (174.4 and 152.5, respectively) than Italy (64.1). In Asia/Pacific, New Zealand has a higher ratio (345.9) compared with China (75.8) and Japan (76.9). The ratio for AS/CS rates could be a good index for implementing evidence-informed decision-making regarding suicidal behaviour (SB) among health service managers, and for helping them in the allocation of health resources for the prevention of SB.
This article discusses the available sources of information on the value and volume of Peru’s exports and estimates the current value of exports, the index of export prices and the quantum of exports using a wide variety of sources. By relying on several sources, I estimate the first complete series of the current value of exports for Peru for 1830-1930. Importantly, I adjust other studies’ estimates by taking into account the deficiencies of foreign sources and by distinguishing between exports of specie and of minerals. The estimations show that exports experienced substantial growth in the 1850s and 1860s, during the Guano Era. Exports stagnated in the 1870s and dropped during the War of the Pacific (1879-1883) before recovering in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, especially during World War I.
Antimicrobials play a critical role in treating cases of invasive non-typhoidal salmonellosis (iNTS) and other diseases, but efficacy is hindered by resistant pathogens. Selection for phenotypical resistance may occur via several mechanisms. The current study aims to identify correlations that would allow indirect selection of increased resistance to ceftriaxone, ciprofloxacin and azithromycin to improve antimicrobial stewardship. These are medically important antibiotics for treating iNTS, but these resistances persist in non-Typhi Salmonella serotypes even though they are not licensed for use in US food animals. A set of 2875 Salmonella enterica isolates collected from animal sources by the National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System were stratified in to 10 subpopulations based on serotype and host species. Collateral resistances in each subpopulation were estimated as network models of minimum inhibitory concentration partial correlations. Ceftriaxone sensitivity was correlated with other β-lactam resistances, and less commonly resistances to tetracycline, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole or kanamycin. Azithromycin resistance was frequently correlated with chloramphenicol resistance. Indirect selection for ciprofloxacin resistance via collateral selection appears unlikely. Density of the ACSSuT subgraph resistance aligned well with the phenotypical frequency. The current study identifies several important resistances in iNTS serotypes and further research is needed to identify the causative genetic correlations.
Child welfare policy making is a highly contested area in public policy. Child abuse scandals prompt critical appraisals of parents, professionals and the child protection system creating a tipping point for reform. One hundred and six transcripts of debates in the West Australian Parliament from August until December 2006 relating to child welfare and child deaths were analysed using qualitative content analysis. The analysis found that statistics about child deaths were conflated with other levels of childhood vulnerability promoting blame, fear, risk and an individual responsibility theme. The key rhetorical strategy was the use of numbers to generate emotion, credibility and authority to frame child maltreatment narrowly as a moral crime. Rhetoric and emotions is about telling causal stories and will remain ubiquitous in social policy making. So, in order to guide policy debate and creation, ground their claims and manage ambiguity and uncertainty, policy makers, researchers and practitioners working with complex social issues will do well to step into this public and political discourse and be strategic in shaping more nuanced alternative frames.
Historiography has payed less attention to imports than exports from the last quarter of the nineteenth century to the beginning of World War I. On the one hand, this is explained by the crucial and more visible part that exports played in fostering economic growth. On the other, the reason why imports have been less studied is the high level of disaggregation of the data available. In this paper, we analyse the official Argentine statistics as the main source for a reconstruction of imports. Then, we recalculate the balance of trade using our corrected export series. Additionally, we propose a research agenda based on gaps in the specialised literature and the possibilities given by the use of the official statistics.
This article examines the development of health system metrics by international organizations, exploring their relationship to the politics of world health. Current historiography treats measurement either as progressive illumination or adopts a critical stance, viewing indicators as instruments of global governance by powerful nations. We draw on diverse statistical publications to provide an empirical overview of change and continuity, beginning with the League of Nations Health Organization, which initiated health system statistics, and concluding with the World health report 2000, with its controversial comparative rankings. We then develop analysis and explanation of these trends. Population indicators appeared consistently owing to their protective function and compatibility with development thinking. Others, related to provision, financing, and coverage, appeared more sporadically, owing to changing trends and assumptions in international health. While partly affirming the critical literature, metrics were also used by peripheral or resistant actors to challenge or influence policy at the centre.
The inability of many wine judges to achieve perfect consistency by assigning the same rating to the same wine in a blind tasting is well established. Results for four wine tastings that include blind replicates are examined in this article. Although perfection is rare, the probability distributions of those results show that wine judges do tend to assign closer ratings to replicates than is likely due to chance alone. Approximately one-third of judges assign ratings that are within one rank of perfect consistency, and two-thirds assign ratings within two ranks of perfect consistency. This finding is sensitive to judges’ capabilities, the mechanics of the tasting protocol, and the extent to which the replicate is different from other wines in the tasting. Much wine-related research to date takes judges’ individual ratings as deterministic, yet these results show that those ratings are stochastic. These results yield a probability distribution that may guide future research concerning the uses and economic implications of wine ratings. (JEL Classifications: A10, C10, C00, C12, D12)
Judges confer various awards on wines entered in dozens of wine competitions each year. This article employs data on blind replicates to show that those awards are based on one instance of stochastic ratings assigned by wine judges; awards based on the expected values of those stochastic ratings would be different. This article recognizes the stochastic nature of ratings and builds on the work of many others to propose and test a conditional-probability model that yields maximum-likelihood estimates of judges’ latent consensus, idiosyncratic, and random assignments of scores to wines. The exact p-value for a likelihood test of the null hypothesis that the model's results are random is less than 0.001. Applying the notion of conditional probability may lead to better methods of assigning awards to entries in wine competitions and of assessing the capabilities of wine judges. (JEL Classifications: A10, C10, C00, C12, D12)