Dimensional models of early life adversity highlight the distinct roles of deprivation and threat in shaping neurocognitive development and mental health. However, relatively little is known about the role of unpredictability within each dimension. We estimated both the average levels of, and the temporal unpredictability of deprivation and threat exposure during adolescence in a high-risk, longitudinal sample of 1354 youth (Pathways to Desistance study). We then related these estimates to later life psychological distress, and Antisocial and Borderline personality traits, and tested whether any effects are mediated by future orientation. High average levels of both deprivation and threat exposure were found to be associated with worse mental health on all three outcomes, but only the effects on Antisocial and Borderline personality traits were mediated by decreased future orientation, a pattern consistent with evolutionary models of psychopathology. Unpredictability in deprivation exposure proved to be associated with increased psychological distress and a higher number of Borderline traits, but with increased future orientation. There was some evidence of unpredictability in threat exposure buffering against the detrimental developmental effects of average threat levels. Our results suggest that the effects of unpredictability are distinct within different dimensions of early life adversity.

The field of psychopathology is in a transformative phase, and is witnessing a renewed surge of interest in theoretical models of mental disorders. While many interesting proposals are competing for attention in the literature, they tend to focus narrowly on the proximate level of analysis and lack a broader understanding of biological function. In this paper, we present an integrative framework for mental disorders built on concepts from life history theory, and describe a taxonomy of mental disorders based on its principles, the fast–slow–defense model (FSD). The FSD integrates psychopathology with normative individual differences in personality and behavior, and allows researchers to draw principled distinctions between broad clusters of disorders, as well as identify functional subtypes within current diagnostic categories. Simulation work demonstrates that the model can explain the large-scale structure of comorbidity, including the apparent emergence of a general “p factor” of psychopathology. A life history approach also provides novel integrative insights into the role of environmental risk/protective factors and the developmental trajectories of various disorders.