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The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), negotiated between 1994 and 1996, is the latest development in the nuclear arms control regime. It continues to serve a vital role in preserving the privileged status of the nuclear weapons states and barring the way to proliferation. Banning the Bang or the Bomb? brings together a team of leading international experts who together analyse its negotiation as a model of regime creation, examining collective dynamics, the behaviour of individual countries, and the nature of specific issues. The book offers practical guidance and training for members of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization future inspectorate to help negotiate their way during an on-site inspection (OSI) in an inspected state. This is a valuable resource for researchers and professionals alike that turns an analysis of what has happened into a manual for what is about to happen.
Entrapment is drowning in a swamp: the more we move, the more the swamp drags us down. It is playing roulette: the more we lose, the more we want to compensate our losses. We can be emotionally tied to a negative development. Rationally speaking we should stop, but we do not want to lose face or the resources already invested in the process, so instead we continue, running the risk of eventually losing much more than if we had cut our losses at an early stage. According to prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky 1979), people are much more willing to take risks in order to prevent losses than to gain profits. Positive prospects generate risk avoidance; negative prospects induce risk taking if and only if one of the parties has already invested substantially and is in the process of risking the loss of those investments.
Escalation is a mark of conflict's dynamics, as is entrapment. Like escalation, entrapment is an increase in a conflict situation. However, in entrapment, the balance will be lost: one party is getting a stronger grip on the other party, which is losing its grip. In many cases it is the stronger party that sees its alternatives diminish, often through its own actions. This is due both to the reactions of the weaker party and to the specific landscape in which the entrapment situation develops.
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