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Depression is highly prevalent and marked by a chronic and recurrent course. Despite being a major cause of disability worldwide, little is known regarding the determinants of its heterogeneous course. Machine learning techniques present an opportunity to develop tools to predict diagnosis and prognosis at an individual level.
We examined baseline (2008–2010) and follow-up (2012–2014) data of the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil), a large occupational cohort study. We implemented an elastic net regularization analysis with a 10-fold cross-validation procedure using socioeconomic and clinical factors as predictors to distinguish at follow-up: (1) depressed from non-depressed participants, (2) participants with incident depression from those who did not develop depression, and (3) participants with chronic (persistent or recurrent) depression from those without depression.
We assessed 15 105 and 13 922 participants at waves 1 and 2, respectively. The elastic net regularization model distinguished outcome levels in the test dataset with an area under the curve of 0.79 (95% CI 0.76–0.82), 0.71 (95% CI 0.66–0.77), 0.90 (95% CI 0.86–0.95) for analyses 1, 2, and 3, respectively.
Diagnosis and prognosis related to depression can be predicted at an individual subject level by integrating low-cost variables, such as demographic and clinical data. Future studies should assess longer follow-up periods and combine biological predictors, such as genetics and blood biomarkers, to build more accurate tools to predict depression course.
To provide cross-national data for selected countries of the Americas on service utilization for psychiatric and substance use disorders, the distribution of these services among treatment sectors, treatment adequacy and factors associated with mental health treatment and adequacy of treatment.
Data come from data collected from 6710 adults with 12 month mental disorder surveys across seven surveys in six countries in North (USA), Central (Mexico) and South (Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Peru) America who were interviewed 2001–2015 as part of the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys. DSM-IV diagnoses were made with the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Interviews also assessed service utilization by the treatment sector, adequacy of treatment received and socio-demographic correlates of treatment.
Little over one in four of respondents with any 12 month DSM-IV/CIDI disorder received any treatment. Although the vast majority (87.1%) of this treatment was minimally adequate, only 35.3% of cases received treatment that met acceptable quality guidelines. Indicators of social-advantage (high education and income) were associated with higher rates of service use and adequacy, but a number of other correlates varied across survey sites.
These results shed light on an enormous public health problem involving under-treatment of common mental disorders, although the problem is most extreme among people with social disadvantage. Promoting services that are more accessible, especially for those with few resources, is urgently needed.
Although childhood adversities are known to predict increased risk of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after traumatic experiences, it is unclear whether this association varies by childhood adversity or traumatic experience types or by age.
To examine variation in associations of childhood adversities with PTSD according to childhood adversity types, traumatic experience types and life-course stage.
Epidemiological data were analysed from the World Mental Health Surveys (n = 27017).
Four childhood adversities (physical and sexual abuse, neglect, parent psychopathology) were associated with similarly increased odds of PTSD following traumatic experiences (odds ratio (OR)=1.8), whereas the other eight childhood adversities assessed did not predict PTSD. Childhood adversity–PTSD associations did not vary across traumatic experience types, but were stronger in childhood-adolescence and early-middle adulthood than later adulthood.
Childhood adversities are differentially associated with PTSD, with the strongest associations in childhood-adolescence and early-middle adulthood. Consistency of associations across traumatic experience types suggests that childhood adversities are associated with generalised vulnerability to PTSD following traumatic experiences.
Previous research suggests that many people receiving mental health
treatment do not meet criteria for a mental disorder but are rather ‘the
To examine the association of past-year mental health treatment with
The World Health Organization's World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys
interviewed community samples of adults in 23 countries
(n = 62 305) about DSM-IV disorders and treatment in
the past 12 months for problems with emotions, alcohol or drugs.
Roughly half (52%) of people who received treatment met criteria for a
past-year DSM-IV disorder, an additional 18% for a lifetime disorder and
an additional 13% for other indicators of need (multiple subthreshold
disorders, recent stressors or suicidal behaviours). Dose–response
associations were found between number of indicators of need and
The vast majority of treatment in the WMH countries goes to patients with
mental disorders or other problems expected to benefit from
Previous community surveys of the drop out from mental health treatment have been carried out only in the USA and Canada.
To explore mental health treatment drop out in the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys.
Representative face-to-face household surveys were conducted among adults in 24 countries. People who reported mental health treatment in the 12 months before interview (n = 8482) were asked about drop out, defined as stopping treatment before the provider wanted.
Overall, drop out was 31.7%: 26.3% in high-income countries, 45.1% in upper-middle-income countries, and 37.6% in low/ lower/middle-income countries. Drop out from psychiatrists was 21.3% overall and similar across country income groups (high 20.3%, upper-middle 23.6%, low/lower-middle 23.8%) but the pattern of drop out across other sectors differed by country income group. Drop out was more likely early in treatment, particularly after the second visit.
Drop out needs to be reduced to ensure effective treatment.
Although significant associations of childhood adversities with adult mental disorders are widely documented, most studies focus on single childhood adversities predicting single disorders.
To examine joint associations of 12 childhood adversities with first onset of 20 DSM–IV disorders in World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys in 21 countries.
Nationally or regionally representative surveys of 51 945 adults assessed childhood adversities and lifetime DSM–IV disorders with the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI).
Childhood adversities were highly prevalent and interrelated. Childhood adversities associated with maladaptive family functioning (e.g. parental mental illness, child abuse, neglect) were the strongest predictors of disorders. Co-occurring childhood adversities associated with maladaptive family functioning had significant subadditive predictive associations and little specificity across disorders. Childhood adversities account for 29.8% of all disorders across countries.
Childhood adversities have strong associations with all classes of disorders at all life-course stages in all groups of WMH countries. Long-term associations imply the existence of as-yet undetermined mediators.
Burden-of-illness data, which are often used in setting healthcare policy-spending priorities, are unavailable for mental disorders in most countries.
To examine one central aspect of illness burden, the association of serious mental illness with earnings, in the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys.
The WMH Surveys were carried out in 10 high-income and 9 low- and middle-income countries. The associations of personal earnings with serious mental illness were estimated.
Respondents with serious mental illness earned on average a third less than median earnings, with no significant between-country differences (χ2(9) = 5.5–8.1, P = 0.52–0.79). These losses are equivalent to 0.3–0.8% of total national earnings. Reduced earnings among those with earnings and the increased probability of not earning are both important components of these associations.
These results add to a growing body of evidence that mental disorders have high societal costs. Decisions about healthcare resource allocation should take these costs into consideration.
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